Have no fear gang, we are back in action this week! To be honest, just took a week off after the Masters. I put a lot of effort into this thing weekly with zero monetary benefit. The writeup really isn’t an issue, but digging through all the stats, course records, key metrics, etc take a lot of time. The results generally speak to justify the amount of work but at the end of the day, it’s still golf and a few untimely mistakes can make all the difference. All that said, our betting matchup record on the season now stands at 30-17 for those keeping tabs.
On to the Valero Texas Open this week! The field resembles a glorified web.com tour event as it is honestly pretty week. Played at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, the Greg Norman design spans roughly 7400 yards and is a par 72. I checked the wind and it looks like it is going to be relatively subdued for Texas this time of the year. While the course is definitely long, I would caution those who say it’s a “bombers” course. You must gain strokes off the tee against the field which doesn’t always mean distance. There are plenty of trouble spots and hazards where distance can get you in a predicament. The greens are tricky and must smaller than a few weeks ago in Houston, so scrambling will also be a key metric. Finally, as always, we look for a hot putter. The field is lacking top tier talent, so this very well could be a week for someone to get their first PGA Tour win. Here are this week's picks:
Hoffman over Koepka +105 – The defending champ rides his horse into San Antonio in great form. A recent 2nd place finish bodes well combined with how he somehow tore up Augusta in the brutal winds. Charley can make birdies in bunches. I was quite surprised to see he was a dog in this matchup. Besides winning the event last year, he went 11th, 11th, 3rd, 13th, and 2nd the previous 5 years. He knows the course and more importantly knows how to score well around the layout.
Hadwin over Chappell -155 – The price is really steep but this is a numbers play based on the metrics that I couldn’t pass on. He’s tops on my list by a good margin this week in strokes gained T2G, putting, and scrambling. I actually like Chapp’s course history here and he’s a good player on these type of tracks, but Hadwin has been dialed in for a while now. He’s finished inside the top 40 in 8 of 9 events this season. Chappell has finished inside the top 40 in 1 of 9 events.
Cam Smith over Piercy EV – Those who follow golf closely know all about Cam Smith. If you haven’t heard of the young Aussie, he is one hell of a good putter. His time is coming soon, and he will win a PGA Tour event. He ranks inside my top 5 in key metrics. Piercy hasn’t had his A-game all season and I think this may be one of the last spots to catch Smith as a dog in this type of matchup.
Poston over Kokrak +105 – Another matchup underdog makes the card this week. Here is another example of a great young talent whose odds haven’t quite caught up with his game. Great putter, solid scrambler, and efficient enough off the tee. Kokrak hasn’t made a cut in over a month, and Poston finished 55th and 10th his last two times out. He has had two weeks to prepare for this event, and when he saw the final field announced, he must have circled this event as a spot to fetch some cheese.
BONUS PLAY : (half you normal size bet) Dechambeau over Cauley +130 – Bryson is back in Texas but more importantly, he is back in good shape mentally I believe. He blew up too quick; too many commercials, autographs, appearances, etc but you can’t really blame him. He was also dealing with a number of personal issues with his dad being very ill. After a turn for the better with family, he has gotten back to basics. He still has an advantage in raw talent and is a phenomenal player tee to green, but the putter has been his nemesis. I think this is worth a flyer as a hefty dog in this circumstance. Get back on track kid!
Outright Winner Picks:
Steele 26-1, Palmer 35-1, Spaun 55-1
Palmer and Steele have great course history and their game sets up perfect for this course. A relatively weak field gives them a real opportunity to get the job done. Spaun has no course history, but his game has been great on both coasts thus far. He is going to win at some point, and I will be on him when he does.
Longshot Picks:
JT Poston 90-1, Cam Smith 90-1, Piercy 100-1
Thanks for reading and best of luck as always,
JINKS
#winners