I will post my thoughts on each horse probable for the derby.
Girvin - I don't think he's a very strong win contender. Highest speed figure is only 99, but more importantly he has never raced outside of Fair Grounds. You rarely see a Derby winner that has never shipped before. He does get Mike Smith aboard and has performed his best at the longer distances, but the value simply won't be there to invest.
Classic Empire - The likely favorite is a toss out for me. He's regressed as a 3 year old, big time. He really only has one great performance on his resume, speed wise, when you look at his figures. Inconsistent or perhaps a fluke performance, not sure which.
Gormley - Probably better suited for an off-track. So check the track condition before considering him.
IRAP - These connections have won 2 derbies together. This horse has run its best as the distance has increased. Ran a 100 speed figure to win the Bluegrass. And will be a longshot. What's not to like about IRAP?
I'll be back later with some of the other probables.