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SSHZ does the Kentucky Derby again for 2017.....

SSHZ does the Kentucky Derby again for 2017.....
sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 1908
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Best Beyer Speed figures of the bunch:

Petrov                    96

Uncontested          96

Malagacy               95

Untrapped             94

Royal Mo               94

American A,           94

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 1908
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Some picks by others:

DocSports    1. American Anthem

                    2. Malagacy

                    3. Royal Mo

                    4. Petrov

Zipse            1. American Anthem

                    2. Untrapped

                    3. Silver Dust

                    4. Uncontested

iSportsWeb  1. American Anthem

                    2. Uncontested

                    3. Petrov

Handicapper     1. American Anthem

                        2. Petrov

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 1908
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I'm going to say it, American Anthem will not win this race. At 2-1, I'll have him on my tickets but I don't think he wins here. Thoroughgraph has him MOST LIKELY regressing after 2 strong races AND his late pace numbers are mid-pack in this group. There, I've gotten it out of the way..........

In the last 10 Rebel Races, only 1 confirmed closer has won. There are reasons for this, which I won't go into here, but for me, it basically eliminates Untapped and Lookin For Lee from winning in my mind. Otherwise, I kind of liked these horses, especially Lookin For Lee who has raced in two Grade 1 races and finished a respectable 2nd and 4th! Untrapped, may be the most consistant of the bunch with 4 straight improving efforts.

I may or may not post more tonight, it's time to look at some of the other races to help decide whether to play a Pick 4/5 or concentrate on the single race. Race 8, the Essex Stakes and 1st leg of the Pick 4 has a 7/5 favorite in Mor Spirit, who should win this race pretty easily. So, my normal Pick 4 bet may not be worth it this week..........the Rebel is a solid race with lots of good, young horses and probably 5-6 horses have a solid chance to win, so it may make sense to just concentrate on the race itself.

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 1908
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Final Brisnet PP's for the Rebel:

www.thedowneyprofile.com/.../PPs_2017_Rebel_free.pdf

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 1908
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Last comments, my bet should be up around 3PM-3:30PM but I still haven't decided the best way to go. Tough race, I may be all wrong about American Anthem but there's loads of negative marks for a 2-1 favorite (and lots of positives too).

Malagacy- Pletcher said horse is better at 1 turn, but he also hits at a 29% win rate when taking horses from sprints to routes.

Petrov- 3 straight 2nd's, with 2 solid works since last race.

American Anthem- upside going into only his 3 race, but had a gap in his workouts in Feb which no one is talking about.

Untrapped- Keeps getting better and better each race, coming off a three week turn-around and trainer said he was tired after last race.

Uncontested- last race he had the lead and faded to 6th by 12 lengths, 2 bullet works since then. Trainer added a tongue tie since last race to help breathing issue and said any issue has been corrected.

Silver Dust- needs a hot pace to have any chance in here, figures are not good enough (yet).

Lookin At Lee- outside post hurts, quick pace will help.

Royal Mo- Big, plodding horse with only 1 move- any traffic and he's done. He'll  probably be wide on 1st turn and get stuck out there.

Silver Bullion- rail hurts any chance, will probably be sent quickly to avoid traffic, poor speed figures though.

Sonneteer- my only absolute throw out of the race.

Appalachian Gem- bullet work 3/3, needs a big improvement to hit the board.

GL everyone, next week is Dubai.........

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 1908
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I had Chinese for lunch today and my fortune cookie said my lucky numbers are 3/7/10 so take that into account when making your selections!

Pick 4 goes off at 5:57PM so figure picks will go up even later..........maybe 4PM-5PM. I couldn't make a Pick 5 work, while trying to keep the ticket reasonably priced so working on a Ticket Master Pick 4 now....well worth everyone giving a review to how to use the Ticket Maker software to cheapen tickets but still including more horses- it's free by the way!

www.drf.com/.../drf-bets-ticketmaker

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 1908
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2 bets today, here's the first one.......

Almost every single thing I've read, has American Anthem winning R10 and as much as I disagree, I'm going to do a small Pick 5 singling him and who I think is the best bet of the day, Mor Spirit in R8 who has a HUGE class advantage over every other horse in the race- you might remember he was in the Kentucky Derby last May and finished 10th. Just a small shot for $36.......

R7) 2356

R8) 2

R9) 123679

R10) 7

R11) 3911   (pretty tough race)

sshz
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Posts: 1908
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OK, ticket 2. You'll need to use Ticket Master if you want to follow my ticket. Either way, my total cost for coverage comes out to about $150. GL everyone, we'll need it!

                             A                                          B                                    C

R8)                      2                                           8                                      1,7

R9)                      1,2                                        7                                      3,6,9,10

R10)                    2,4,5,6,7                               10                                       11

R11)                     2,3,11                                   4,9                                      5,12

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 1908
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ATTENTION: CORRECTION

Some how the Sunday PP printed out for R7 on the Pick 5  so that's a BAD ticket now. Just cancel ticket and redo while dropping the #3! Sorry guys, glad I caught it. So R7 now, 2/5/6.

Or, of course, keep him and pray for a long shot!

sshz
Joined: 10/21/2015
Posts: 1908
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Bridge jumping time. The #2, the 1/5 monster favorite in R7 was out of it and $349,000 of $400,000 was on him leading to gigantic show payoffs.......and there goes the small Pick 5 too. On to the Pick 4......

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