Here's two of my posts condensed from Dave Malinsky's Point Blank thread:
In the main event, I took Eddie a week or so ago at +140, I believe Alvarez is the superior fighter heading into this title fight and think he should be a 2-to-1 betting favorite, so I saw great value in him at +140. I can see him beating McGregor numerous ways and feel he has more routes to victory, whereas I think McGregor’s main chance at defeating Alvarez is to stop him with strikes early. I think Alvarez is also capable of stopping McGregor early in this fight and feel that could come to fruition on Saturday night. I also believe Alvarez has a much better chance at finishing McGregor in the first round than he did in the fight with RDA & at +925 I have that in pocket also. Over the course of five rounds of action, I favor the battle tested veteran in Alvarez to come out on top. He'll have the advantage in size, grappling, and cardio. His BJJ is hands down better than McGregor's, since Conor has never really earned his belts in JJ. McGregor is a pure puncher, his last fight with Nate was the first one to go the full 5 rounds, and if it wasn't for him dancing around most of rounds 1, 2 & 5, Nate would've finished him like before, because Conor was completely gassed. Tomorrow they'll be no escaping Alvarez, and although Conor has 2" in height on Eddie, Eddie will be the biggest, widest, hardest hitting opponent Conor's faced to date, and Eddie won't gas out. He handled RDA easily and won the belt, but there's a big difference in natural weight for Eddie vs Conor. Eddie will come into the fight in the 185-190lb range and McGregor will be around165. McGregor is a huge draw, and like all his fights, expect big money to come in tomorrow on him from his fans, so you still have a chance to get Alvarez at better than $125.
In the Wonderboy vs T-Wood Welterweight championship, I went Thompson by T/KO +$135. I think 25 minutes is plenty of time for “Wonderboy” to put Woodley away. I think 25 minutes is just too much time. If this was a 3 round fight, I wouldn't have played that. Unless Woodley is constantly on his bicycle the whole fight and Thompson is hesitant, I don’t see this fight hitting the judges cards, and as long as Thompson doesn’t get caught with something wild early, I see him walking away with the UFC Welterweight title, as I think this is his fight to lose.
Another interesting fight is Thiago Alves(-155) vs Jim Miller. Alves was set to make his UFC lightweight debut against Al Iaquinta but Iaquinta pulled out due to contract issues and was replaced by Miller. Alves missed weight so this bout will now be contested at catchweight, and I don’t see it going the full three round distance. If Alves fails to finish Miller with strikes, Miller will likely find a way to get the fight to the mat and pull off a submission. My bet was Fight doesn't go the Distance +100
In the Women's Strawweight championship with Joana Jedrzejczyk (-410) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+330), I think this fight is a lot closer than the betting odds currently suggest. I really like the challenger for a value play at +330. A lot of people are counting her out and I think she can realistically pull out the victory on Saturday night.
I also bet Weidman by Decision +225. I think Weidman winning a decision is the most likely outcome to this middleweight match-up, and at +225, I favor this prop over the his money line of -175, and OVER 2.5 rounds at -220.
I think the Weidman/Romero fight will bring an excellent showing from both fighters. Weidman is a very talented wrestler who was a two-time Division I All-American, defeating guys like Ryan Bader and Phil Davis. He has great takedowns and does an excellent job of using his strikes to set-up said takedowns. He's quite dominant on the mat and very effective from top position. He makes excellent transitions, advancing from position to position. He has a powerful ground and pound attack, from where he likes to use his heavy fists and vicious elbows. To compliment his wrestling, the Serra-Longo (Awesome gym run by 2 top coaches) fighter also has an incredible Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game. Weidman is, in general, a tremendous grappler, both offensively and defensively. He has a great sprawl and fantastic takedown defense, being capable of keeping his fights on the feet whenever preferring to do so. He's very aggressive inside the cage and likes to be the aggressor pushing the pace. He is an orthodox striker who has developed a solid boxing game and uses his hooks really well, especially his left, which he used to knockout Anderson Silva in their first fight when he won the title. Weidman has great footwork, a strong chin and packs serious power in his hands. He has a heavy right hand and likes to throw the over-hand right. He has a nice jab and is very good at working counters. The Ring of Combat veteran has a great uppercut and likes to implement his elbows on the feet, which he used to knock out Munoz in their outing. Weidman puts together some solid and effective combinations on the feet, and he has been developing his kicking game, doing a good job of working inside leg kicks and throwing high kicks. I expect him to have a full gas tank for three rounds of action in this contest, if necessary.
On the other side of the cage, “Soldier of God” Romero is a southpaw who throws very heavy hands, and packs a lot of power behind every strike. His lone career loss came against Rafael Cavalcante when he fought in Strikeforce. The Cuban is a talented wrestler with silver and bronze medals in the Olympics. He works great takedowns and has an awesome double leg. When he has top position on the mat, he's brutal with his heavy ground and pound. Remember his KO of Machida? Despite his age (39), he is arguably the fastest middleweight in the division. He has great movement on the feet, and uses the inside leg kick really well, as well as a solid striking defense. Sometimes I see his conditioning seems to be hit or miss, so it is a question mark as to how he will look entering the third frame of this contest, should it get that far.