WTA - U.S. Open - Roberta Vinci (-112) WINNER
Over the last four years, only Serena(27) and Vika(20) have more wins at the U.S. Open than Roberta Vinci. Since 2012, Vinci is 16-4 at the Open, reaching the final last year and the QF in 2013 and 2012. Interestingly, 3 of her 4 losses have come to fellow Italians, Pennetta and Errani. Vinci’s 2R opponent is #54 ranked Christina McHale of the USA. Dating back to 2004, Vinci is 16-1 at the Open vs. players outside the T50.
McHale failed to get out of the 2R in Washington, Montreal & Cincinnati in her run up to the Open including losses to the #121 and #173 ranked players. She sits at 38-26(59.4%) over the L52 weeks but only 7 of those wins came vs. T50 players and only 3 came against T20 opponents. Over the span of her career, McHale is just 13-52 vs. T20 players including an 8-31 mark on hard courts and a 1-10 mark at Grand Slams. She has had mixed success at the Open with a 7-8 career mark but the average ranking of her opponent in those 7 wins was #69.
Simply put, McHale will have to turn around some serious history to win this match. She’s only beaten 1 T10 player since Eastbourne 2012 and that was an out of form Muguruza on her least favorite surface. Anything can happen in women’s tennis but history tells us that McHale will struggle mightily to win this match.