BILL HAAS (-115) vs Paul Casey (-105)
Bill Haas is a natural. I used to work with a guy who went to Wake Forest and played with Bill on the golf team. He told me a story about Bill waking up late for practice one morning, he sprinted to the range and hit his first ball, a driver, over the back fence of the range, nothing new for him, everyone had seen him do this before, like a 300 yard carry, but:
“It was Butt-Crack early and I look down and that Son-of-a-Bitch still has his shower shoes on! We’re all stretched out and warm and this guy rolls out of the rack and flies driver 3 bills no prob… in flip flops.”
Bill would always come out, hit balls and play a little when he was in town. He didn’t like Torrey very much even though he had some success there, “too hard and too many fog delays” He can move it both ways comfortably with driver.
When he won the Fed-Ex cup by getting up and down from underwater in a playoff vs Hunter Mahan, I cashed a $100 ticket at 23 to 1. Bill cashed a check for 10 mil.
That win changed Bill, settled him down a little, he was always confident but he would get super impatient and hot tempered on the course before 2011.
I think Bill has matured this year. He has the wife, kid and house now. Making birdies has never been an issue (3.25 avg). He has taken a step back in driving distance and he is hitting more fairways and making more putts which equals less bogeys. He is scrambling at 67.76% and he hasn’t missed a 3 footer all year! He’s smiling on the course more.
Casey just had a kid too but something is wrong with Paul Casey’s game these last two tourneys. He has always been able to score well in tough conditions as he is a perennial contender in majors but his iron game is just horrible lately. He made 9 bogeys against 6 birds while missing the cut at Memorial and he only hit 19 out of 36 greens. He hit 23 out of 28 fairways and only hit 19 greens. He putted rather well, (.226 SGP) converting 31% of GIR’s into birdies for an outstanding ratio. But less greens than fairways tells me there is an injury lurking. At the US Open he hit 67.86% of the fairways (19-28) and only 61.11% GIR (22-36). He made 4 birdies, 8 bogeys and a couple doubles missing the cut by 2 shots. We know he has had a bad back and the dislocated shoulder in the past. I’m betting he is not going through the turf with enough authority to take big divots and hit high iron shots. Course history favors Casey big time, (6 top 20’s in 11 trips) but Bill likes Firestone CC as well, (2 top 20’s in 6 years) T19, T7, T41 and T25 last season.
BILL HAAS (-115) over Paul Casey (-105) for tournament June 30, 12:45 PM ET
5 UNITS (my max)
BROOKS KOEPKA (+150) vs Dustin Johnson (-170) June 30th 12:10 PM ET
More of a Johnson fade than anything else. I just hate this spot for DJ. He has never contended at Firestone, (15th was his best finish back in 2010). He tied for 53rd last year which is damn near dead last in this limited field, no cut cash grab. Now he is coming off his first, looonnng awaited major championship victory (there has to be a letdown of intensity) and he has a serious road trip to Scotland “lined up” (DJ loves coke) with The Open starting just 10 days after Bridgestone ends this Sunday.
Brooks made a very “grown up” decision to start his pro career overseas in Europe and it is paying off big time. He’s as red hot as you can get without winning. He had b2b 2nd place finishes at St Jude and The Nelson then made Oakmont look like a par 3 muni for about 4 holes on Sunday before finishing T13 with a 68. He has the perfect game for Firestone (T6 last year in his debut). Basically I would take Koepka +150 over any player in the world on any course. On this course vs this player in this spot I am willing to risk my max.
DJ had an incredible stat at The US Open, he hit 76% (55-72) GIR, over 30% more than the field avg. and 4 more than 2nd place finisher Jim Furyk (51-72). No other player hit more than 50 greens. DJ finished 43rd in putting. He won the US Open with his driver and only his driver.
BROOKS KOEPKA (+150) over Dustin Johnson (-170) for tournament June 30 12:10 ET
5 UNITS (my max)