The Belmont is a different animal, though. Big difference between a mile and a quarter vs a mile and a half, especially when running a third grueling race in a five week span. A fresher horse that skipped the Preakness and runs for distance is certainly live to knock off the Pharoah.
9 different horses have won both the Derby & teh Preakness in the last 19 years. None of them won the Belmont. RJ bet the 'no' on the triple crown prop and I still think it was a good bet, even with his current liability
1997 Silver Charm 2nd (Touch Gold)
1998 Real Quiet 2nd (Victory Gallop)
1999 Charismatic 3rd (Lemon Drop Kid)
2002 War Emblem 8th (Sarava)
2003 Funny Cide 3rd (Empire Maker)
2004 Smarty Jones 2nd (Birdstone)
2008 Big Brown DNF (Da'Tara)
2012 I'll Have Another (Did not start)
2014 California Chrome 4th (Tonalist)
Chart cut & pasted from horseracing.about.com/.../aa052101a.htm