Kurt Busch, Kurt Busch, and Kurt Busch. He ran well last week and absolutely crushed it this week in practice and qualifying. 6 tenths faster than the 2nd place car in the 3rd practice and 2 tenths faster in the 4th practice. There is value here at 5-1. I jumped on it after the first practice and qualifying at 7.5-1. I also jumped on him to win the chase at 40-1 yesterday afternoon. It's already down to 22-1. Still value? The chase is kind of a crapshoot (Newman 2nd last year), and with Busch running with Harvick's setup (and no woman to bring him down), I think there may still be value here.
Harvick has obviously been hotter than the sun, but at 3-1 I just can't get behind it. I bet Busch and just accept the fact there there is a good chance Harvick will burn me this week.
Longshots - Newman (48-1) and Truex (33-1)
Good luck Deliveryman!