After a nice final week on the West Coast we now make our way down to PGA National for the beginning of the Florida Swing. PGA National Championship Course is 7,158 yards playing to a Par 70. It generally is in the conversation each year as the toughest 'non major' course, so just like last week we aren't looking at a birdie fest. Since moving to PGA National back in 2007 the average winning score is just a touch under -9. The course is extremely difficult as is but when the wind kicks up (currently forecasted between 12-20 mph each day) it can give players fits.
With Rory in the field this week there is a lot of great value down the board. He is currently the favorite at a 'Tiger-In-His-Prime' price of 3.5/1. Typically I don't like dipping even below 12/1 on Outright Plays, and this week is no exception as I think I have found 2 very solid players with great Course Form who are playing good golf at the moment. And with inflated 'Rory in the Field' prices, I am happy to back em here.
**Keegan Bradley - 33/1 (bovada) .5 unit**
-Keegan is coming off a fantastic final round 68 at Riviera to climb into a T4. Actually, after opening with a 2 over 73 he put together three straight rounds under par (68-70-68), which if anyone was paying attention to that event would realize was extremely good. He also has a fantastic history here at PGA National. He debuted in 2011 with a mc, but since then has gone T12, T4, T12. I love the fact that he has finished high the last 2 years in Par 4 Scoring (T14 / T13) because this course has some extremely difficult ones. He seems to rise to the occasion on tough courses as well, so I am happy to back him here at the brutal Championship Course.
**Lee Westwood - 40/1 (5dimes) .5 unit**
-I consider myself pretty knowledgeable on the Tour, and usually am not often surprised when researching someone as prominent as Westy... but I really wasn't expecting to see how good his form has been this year. In 6 starts across both US and EUR Tours he has 6 Top 20s. His form reads T12,T13,T20,T16,T9, and a T5 his last time out in the Maybank Malaysian Open earlier this month. He has played The Honda Classic at PGA National each of the past 5 years, making the cut every time with an average finish of 19.4 - which includes 3 Top 10s. Known as a great ball striker who can handle windy conditions, I expect Westy to shine this weekend.
Those will probably be my only 2 Outright Selections this week. I really don't like laying too many units in fields that have Rory. I know his inclusion drives the prices up, but that's only because he can very easily come out and win this event wire to wire in blowout fashion. So I'll continue to tread lightly when he plays.
That's it for now. Should have the full assortment of Tournament Matches, First Round Plays, and Top 10 Action up by Wednesday PM. Also just to note, I will be traveling this weekend and more than likely won't have any Sat or Sun action. I also will be gone for most of next week, so I won't have Pre-Tourney Cards for either the WGC Cadillac or the Puerto Rico Open. I should have some 18h action however for those.
Good luck everyone! Let's see if we can put together a little run here!
-LinksPicks