WTA - Australian Open - Andrea Petkovic -2 (-110) LOSER
I can't help but think that Madison's fantastic start to the season is keeping this line lower than it should be. Brengle has already won 11 matches this year. Yes, 11. She kicked off the year by winning 3 matches to qualify for the main draw in Brisbane and then won her 1R match only to lose in the round of 16 to Kanepi. She then immediately traveled to Hobart where she once again won 3 matches to qualify for the main draw. To the surprise of many, she reeled off 4 straight wins to reach the finals as a qualifier, quite an accomplishment. She would go on to lose the final in straight sets to the Brit, Heather Watson. So, the Dover, Delaware native enters the Open with an 11-2 record on the young season but if you look closely at her results, you'll see that things may not be all that they seem. First off, 6 of those 11 wins were against players outside the top 100. The average ranking of her 13 opponents this year is 98.54. The average ranking of her opponent in her 11 wins is 107.27. The highest ranked player she beat in her 11 wins was #40, Barthel. Tonight will certainly be a step up in class for Madison as she takes on #13, Petkovic. Brengle has very little experience against top players as she still spent much of 2014 on the ITF tour. She played just 3 matches last year against top 30 players and lost all 3. That will change this year with her improved ranking. She’ll make many more WTA main draws this year and get her shots at the top players.
A big part of this play for me is Madison’s fitness. Stop to think about this for a second. She has played 13 matches in just over 2 weeks. To put that into perspective, the winner of the Open will have to win 7 matches over the span of 2 weeks. She has played nearly double that in basically the same time frame. I don’t care how in shape she is, 13 matches in 2 weeks will do in even the most fit players in the world. Petkovic will clearly be more rested for this match as she drew tough 1R matches in Brisbane and Sydney and lost both. She won’t be as match sharp as Madison but she’s been on-site training for several days since bowing out early at Sydney. I actually like the fact that Petkovic lost 1R in both warm-ups as that should provide her with some extra motivation to come out strong this first match in Melbourne.
I don’t see Petkovic dropping a set so the -2 makes more sense than the ML. As long as it doesn’t go the distance, only double breakers can push this at -2.