The circuit finds itself in Dover Delaware with round one of the chase coming to an end with 12 drivers moving on two round two. There are 8 drivers separated by 12 points so it should make for some good TV.
Match Up's:
1* Jamie McMurray +110 over Kasey Kahne
1* Brian Vickers +110 over Carl Edwards
1* Joey Logano +100 over Denny Hamlin
1* Ryan Newman +100 over Kurt Busch
Win Bet:
0.5* Kyle Busch @ 10/1
This is one of Kyle's favorite tracks, and as long as nothing happens mechanically he should be there contending for the win. He is off back-to-back top 10's and that's encouraging as well. Busch will start in second. This race has been won from that starting position 16.8% percent of the time. No other starting position has produced more race winners.
Jamie McMurray has been has been very strong recently. In four of the last five races he’s finished in the top ten. Over these five races he’s scored the 3rd most points and has a 7.4 average finish. I have him in the top 10 again. I have 11th to 15th. Dover hasn’t been one of Kahne’s better tracks. He has a 21.0 average result and has only finished in the top twenty 52% percent of the time. Outside of his Atlanta win he hasn’t been good recently. Excluding his win since Michigan #2 his best finish is 13th and his average finish is 20.8.
I have Vickers in the top 15 here today, and concrete Carl as a 16th 20th place car. Vickers and MWR has shown potential here and he’s been fast this weekend. Carl has been off this weekend, and long runs will not be his friend on Sunday.
I have to respect Joey Logano's run of late tot take him over Hamlin. I have the #22 car in the top 10 and Hamlin 11th to 15th. For whatever reason Joey Logano has been a little off in practice. In Happy Hour his car was tight and his ten lap average ranked as the 20th best. That said this is a good team and they’ll have access to Keselowski’s note book. Their more than capable of making him more competitive overnight. Denny Hamlin is racing for his Chase life at Dover. In my opinion I find him to be one of the worst clutch performers in NASCAR when the pressure is put on him. When you add in the fact Dover is the track where he needs to come up big it could be trouble brewing. Dover hasn’t one of Denny Hamlin’s better tracks. He has a 19.6 average finish and has only had a result in the top fifteen 41% percent of time.
At Dover I expect Ryan Newman to have a solid but unspectacular afternoon. In this race I think Newman will be points racing. I have him in the top 15 regardless, because Dover has been a good track for him over the years. He’s won here three times, has a 13.6 average finish and has had a result in the top ten 48% percent of the time. Kurt Busch's times this weekend just look off, and he finished 18th here back in June.
GL
Doc