This is a game I've been waiting to bet for three weeks. FC Roskilde is a semi-professional team promoted to the Danish 1st Division (2nd best) this year, and they have had a rough time of it as promoted sides almost always do when they start playing fully professional teams (both promoted teams last year were relegated). So far FC Roskilde is 0-5-4, but they have gotten some attention because of 20 year old Emil Nielsen (bought by Rosenborg). He scored 34 goals last season and has so far scored 4 goals and 3 assists despite some injuries. AB have not done much better though their opposition has been pretty tough, so far 1-4-4, but again, against much tougher opposition (Lyngby, AGF, AC Horsens). Against lesser sides they've done much better.
And then there's AB's overall record against promoted sides or the bottom sides. AB has been a team always on the verge of relegation, but has made it every time. What that says to me is that they have played a lot of 6 pointers against other teams at the bottom, they have a different level of experience in the division and how you win those games. They know who they are and how big this game is at home. Since Thomas Noergaard took over last winter they decisively beaten the other promoted sides that would eventually get relegated, and they have strengthened. Don't let their mediocre record fool you, they play somewhat naively against the big sides because they are a possession based team under Noergaard with attacking players like Linus Olsson and Nichlas Rohde they won't have problems creating or scoring like some bottom teams have against each other.
I would play this game all the way down to -150 but the game is available at +105 and I have already bet it. If you are a more cautious soul, the AB at draw no bet is there for -175.
Record:
Norway-Italy 2 (-120) Win
Southampton-Newcastle 2 (Draw no bet) (+275) Loss
Brondby-Randers 1 (-120) Loss
Monaco-Leverkusen Both teams score (-120) Loss
Mainz-Dortmund Over 2.5 (-160) Loss
Future
Manchester United to win PL + 1700 (Line currently +1300)