Promised to get a thread up earlier this week and here it is. Only have a few plays in currently, and still doing lots of work. But I'll list what I got now and come back in to add analysis and any further action I may have.
This week is an interesting one. The Royal Montreal GC hasn't hosted the Canadian Open since 2001. And seeing as it was completely renovated by Rees Jones in the buildup to the 2007 Presidents Cup which was held here - Course Form is literally thrown out the window.
I happen to think Recent Form and Motivation are key this week. And when speaking of motivation, there is plenty to come by. Here's how the different factors I see.
-FedEx Cup Playoffs - players around 125th in the ranking realize this is one of their best remaining chances at improving their positions - as they may not be playing in the Bridgestone or PGA the next few weeks. This tournament, the Barracuda (played next week along side the Bridgestone but providing less points), and the Wyndham could be all that remains for them to make that push for the playoffs.
-2015 PGA Tour Card - some of these players around 125th on the Fedex Cup list and the Money List are looking to make sure they have employment on the top Tour next year.
-Entry into both the Bridgestone and the PGA could also be at stake for some players. There are still ways to get in, even without winning. Special Money Lists & OWGR requirements are still available.
-And on the flip side - are the top players truly motivated this week? Players like DJ, Furyk, Kuchar, GMac, Donald, Etc etc - who competed last week at Royal Liverpool - could they be more interested in the huge tournaments that are fast approaching? Will the Canadian Open grab 100% of their attention?
So these are all factors I am trying to work through this week. Below are the only 2 players I have plays on so far. I may have more - but the plan is to keep the card light this week. There should be some opportunities for profit, but I just can't get carried away on an event like this, sandwiched in between huge tournaments, on a course that is new to nearly everyone.
Outright Plays - each .5u
Charley Hoffman - 40/1
Nick Watney - 66/1
I'll be back with more plays, analysis, and hopefully to see a lot of discussion taking place!
See Yas soon!
-LinksPicks