The Fight Pass Prelim starts Wednesday at 6:30pm EST & the rest of the card will be on Fox Sports 1 beginning at 7pm EST. This should be a very entertaining event with some nasty finishes.
Fight Pass Prelim
115lbs - Claudia Gadelha (11-0-0) vs Tina Lahdemaki (5-0-0)
This is Gadelha's fight to lose. Lahdemaki is a decent prospect but Gadelha's BJJ will be just too much for Jelly Bean to handle. Gadelha is being groomed to be one of the first challengers for the new women's strawweight champion that will be crowned on TUF 20. Gadelha should easily over power Lahdemaki & control her for the entire 15 minutes. I wouldn't be suprised to see Gadelha finish Lahdemaki but I'm not 100% sure that she won't play it safe in her UFC debut. My prediction is Claudia Gadelha to defeat Tina Lahdemaki by decision.
FS1 Prelims
155lbs -Yosdenis Cedeno (9-3-0) vs Jerrod Sanders (14-1-0)
Sanders is coming into his UFC debut on fairly short notice & fighting up from his regular weight class at 145. I understand why Sanders is the favorite because he is a very good wrestler from Oklahoma State & Cedeno doesn't have the best TDD but I think Cedeno is going to be able to pick Sanders apart on the feet. If this does end up going all 3 rounds then it'll be close but I think Cedeno's power & technical striking will be the deciding factor. I look for Cedeno to keep the fight standing long enough to land the big shot that'll hurt Sanders & then finish him off with some GNP. My prediction is Yosdenis Cedeno to defeat Jerrod Sanders by KO/TKO.
135lbs - Hugo Viana (8-2-0) vs Aljamain Sterling (9-0-0)
This should be a pretty fun matchup. Viana has big power & swings for the fences. Sterling is the more technical & active striker. Sterling also uses his striking to set up his takedowns. I feel that each round will go back & forth but as both men start to tire, Sterling will have more in the gas tank & will be able to do enough to win at least 2 of the 3 rounds. I wouldn't be surprised if Sterling gets a late finish because Viana does gas & Sterling is constantly improving with every fight under the Serra./Longo camp. My prediction is Aljamain Sterling to defeat Hugo Viana by decision.
135lbs - #14 Jessamyn Duke (3-1-0 1NC) vs Leslie Smith (6-5-1)
Watching every season of TUF like I do definitely has it's advantages but it also has it's disadvantages. On one hand for about 3 months you get to see how some of the fighters grow & mature under what is usually there first real professional camp. Most of the fighters that get invited to TUF are pretty raw but have potential. On the other hand, you get to see the fighters so much that it's easy to draw conclusions on their potential instead of the fighter they are today. Duke is the perfect example of someone that was on TUF with a ton of potential but she was very lackluster in her first non-TUF fight. Duke is still learning to how use to her height & reach advantage. Smith is definitely the more polished fighter but I'm not as impressed with her as everyone else is. I am definitely not confident in this pick but I am going to pick Duke to learn from her last fight & become a little more active with clinch work and striking. Duke must stay off her back but I believe she will do just enough to win a very close & possibly even split decision. My prediction is Jessamyn Duke to defeat Leslie Smith by decision.
155lbs - Gleison Tibau (37-10-0) vs Pat Healy (31-18-0 1NC)
Both men have a lot to prove in this fight. Tibau is coming off of a pretty bad TKO loss & Healy has lost 3 straight to upper tier competition. I think this will be a very entertaining & close bout but I see the Pace of Bam Bam being too much for Tibau to keep up with. I look for both men to get rocked & for both men to have their moments but Healy should be able to do enough to edge out Tibau in the final 2 rounds as Tibau slows down a bit. This should be a war of attrition & I just don't think Tibau can keep up with Healy unless he keeps this fight on the mat. My prediction is Pat Healy to defeat Gleison Tibau by decision.
Main Card
145lbs - Lucas Martin (14-1-0) vs Alex White (10-0-0)
I don't understand why Martins is coming back up to Featherweight after looking so good at Bantamweight. Martins is a very good striker but he doesn't have the best chin & he has basically beaten tomato cans. White is much more well rounded & his power will be the difference. I see White having his way as he rocks & finishes Martins inside the first 2 rounds. White is getting better with every fight & should have the much brighter future. My prediction is Alex White to defeat Lucas Martins by KO/TKO.
125lbs - #7 John Lineker (23-7-0) vs Alptekin ozkilic (9-2-0)
Ozkilic is definitely over-matched here & the only reason Lineker isn't fighting someone near the top of the division is because he keeps missing weight. Lineker has missed weight so many times that I'm surprised he's still employed by the UFC or at least hasn't been forced to move up in weight class. The good news for Lineker is that he easily made weight for this fight. Both men slow down as the fight goes on but for Lineker, it's usually because of the weight cut issues. Lineker has much more power than Ozkilic & I see him coming out guns blazing looking to finish the fight inside a round. If Ozkilic makes it out of the 1st, I will give him credit & then he might have a chance of outpointing Lineker in the final 2 rounds but I just don't see it happening. My prediction is John Lineker to beat Alptekin Ozkilic by KO/TKO.
155lbs - Justin Salas (12-5-0) vs Joe Proctor (9-2-0)
This is a very close fight & a hard one to pick. Proctor is the more technical striker & has good TDD. Salas has a definite speed advantage & is a southpaw so he should create openings on the feet. If Salas wrestles Proctor then he should control him enough to edge him out on the scorecards but I just don't trust Salas's fight IQ enough to think that he'll fight smart because his chin is a definite issue. Another fight where I'm not very confident but I see Proctor winning a very competitive contest. My prediction is Joe Proctor to defeat Justin Salas by decision.
170lbs - Rick Story (16-8-0) vs Leonardo Mafra (11-1-0)
Story is always a game fighter & he does hold wins over Thiago Alves & Johnny Hendricks but both of those were over 3 years ago & Story has definitely slowed down. Story is 3-5 in his last 8 fights & his chin isn't holding up like it use to despite still never being knocked out.Well that comes to an end here. Mafra has had weight cut & cardio issues in the past but he came in 5lbs underweight & looked tremendous at the weigh-ins. Story will try to bully Mafra around & grind out a decision but I look for Mafra to be too quick & powerful for the UFC vet. I look for Mafra to avoid to the takedowns & turn this into a brawl. Sooner or later Mafra will create space while in an exchange & land the 1 punch shot that'll end the fight. This dog has more bite than he's getting credit for & Story's record is pretty padded outside of a couple big names. My prediction is Leonardo Mafra to defeat Rick Story by KO/TKO.
155lbs - #13 Edson Barboza (13-2-0) vs Evan Dunham (14-5-0)
Dunham is a decent fighter but this fight is all about Barboza. Barboza is arguably the most dangerous striker in the UFC but he also has one of the worst chins.The good thing for Barboza is Dunham throws pillows for punches & I don't see him being able to finish Barboza. Barboza has the most dynamic kicking arsenal in MMA & it's not even close. I don't think it'll take Barboza more than 4 minutes to brutally knockout Dunham & pick up his 50K Performance of the Night check. This fight has head kick knockout written all over it!! My prediction is Edson Barboza to defeat Evan Dunham by KO/TKO.
155lbs - #6 Donald Cerrone (23-6-0, 1NC) vs #7 Jim Miller (24-4-0, 1NC)
This fight has fireworks writen all over it. Both men have tremendous submission games & always put on an entertaining bout. Cerrone definitely has more power despite only 3 knockout victories. Cerrone could easily have many more KO victories but he chooses to go for submissions when he has his opponent rocked. Cerrone is the much more well rounded fighter & he definitely has the better cardio. I'm not sure how long this fight will go but the longer it does go, the better it is for Cerrone since it is a 5 round fight. I see Cerrone hurting Miller on the feet & finishing the fight with another submission. My prediction is Donald Cerrone to defeat Jim Miller by submission.