Hey Everyone!
Here we are back for another week - and it never gets old! Coming off a monstrous profit of +.05u last week (ha) ... We look to keep the momentum on our side as we visit TPC Louisiana in New Orleans. The course plays as a Par 72 stretching to over 7400 yards. Seeing as it is already Wednesday AM - going to try and get some quick thoughts out there then turn right to my Outright picks.
This week there isn't a great deal of importance placed on driving accuracy - as evidenced by last year's champion Billy Horschel hitting just over half of his drives in the short stuff. And with the average winning score since 2007 being slightly lower than -16, we are going to look at some scoring stats. Par Breakers - since this ain't no US Open, and Par 5 Scoring Average - since there is a strong correlation to taking care of the Par 5s and winning here, are very important to look at this week. We of course include the usual Strokes Gained Putting, but will also look at Proximity to the Hole as again - Birdies and some Eagles will be needed around this track.
We also have an interesting '1st PGA Tour Win' angle this week. The last 2 winners (Horschel and Dufner) and 4 of the last 7 (add in Watney and Romero) have made the Zurich their first victory. I currently have 4 selections - two of which a victory here would be their first.
So without further adieu...
Outright Plays - each .5u
Graham DeLaet - 20/1
-To be honest - if he is gonna win anywhere soon it's this type of event where I would expect it the most... Not some big time headline event or major (although I can see him competing at those for quite some time). And I am more than happy to get some $$$ down on him at a track that turns out first time winners. He sets up quite nicely for this course being 22nd in Par Breakers, 27th in Par 5 Scoring, and 47th in Proximity. If he can find the putter (currently 115th on Tour in Strokes Gained Putting), I'd expect him to have a great shot this week. He is familiar with the course having finished 4th in 2012 and 47th last year... And with a Recent Form of 34, 8, 19, and most recently a mc (1st Masters apperance so won't hold that against him) - I think he has the right 'Stat & Form' combination coming into this week.
Ryan Palmer - 22/1
-Palmer actually is #2 overall on my board, only behind our next selection, with some fantastic #s. 3rd in Par Breakers, 7th in Par 5 Scoring, 42nd in Proximity, and 61st in Strokes Gained Putting. The last 3 years at TPC Louisiana he has gone 46, 4, 32. And he has a great recent form that reads P2, T56, and most recently T7 at the Shell Houston Open. The odds on these first 2 are a little short - but that can be expected in this rather weak field. (as of this writing however you can get Palmer at 25/1... Grabbed 22 yesterday unfortunately).
Matt Every - 34/1
-This an interesting scenario. Normally I'd be happy with his having won recently (as long as it wasn't the last time out - which it wasnt) as that shows a golfer who is in form and confident that he can close. But I may actually feel better about him if he hadn't won given the penchant for first time winners here, haha. A little bit of a Catch 22... But there is no debating that I can't find a player who matches up more perfectly with a Course 'Stats Wise' in nearly all of the time I've been running this system. I mean it's unreal. 1st in Strokes Gained Putting, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in Par Breakers, and 16th in Proximity... Those are insane! He finished 32nd here last year after missing the cut in 2011 & 2012 - but that's less of a concern at this place where quite a few recent winners hadn't come in with good Course Form. But he does of course have that great Recent Form - 24, 8, 1, mc (1st Masters Appearance), and most recently a 12th last week at the Heritage. This kid is primed for a quick 2nd win on Tour.
Chris Stroud - 44/1
-The next play is our 2nd attempt to grab a players 1st win. Chris is the 2nd highest non-winner on my board behind Delaet. He has the game to win here being 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 21st in Par Breakers, and 86th in Strokes Gained Putting. He has good experience at TPC Louisiana (5, 64, mc, 21, 26, 24, mc), and with a Recent Form that reads 19, 12, 9, 31, 12, 48 - - - He def is playing some great golf currently.
So those are my plays currently. Of course as the day goes on we will get all those plays we have come to love up (Top 5/10, 72h, 18h) - but for now I just wanted to get this posted as soon as possible so we can start the debate!
Good luck this week everyone! I look forward to reading all your thoughts!
Hopefully will be back soon with those Tournament Matches!
-LinksPicks