Good Morning Pregame today is Saturday April 12, and the teams are headed to try and tame the Lady in Black tonight, for some down south NASCAR racing. Well last week was sweet and much needed getting the win and getting back into the books pocket after hitting a 3 week dry spell. It’s always special for me to win at Texas and this week was just that with Logano clearly wight the best car on the day. So, after 7 weeks my numbers on the year have settled into median at +7.714% increase on the season bankroll.
This week I am pushing the limits and it is a questionable race to do that, but I feel like I am hitting things well and I have a bit of a cushion. Tonight I am really fading Matt Kenseth, so if he he runs top 5 it will be a tough night. He won here last May for the 1st time and I really think a first time winner could see checker tonight and that is why with Harvick at the pole and running extremely well on these tracks, with the exception of last weeks engine failure, he gets my top nod. Jeff Gordon running a seriously strong start to the year and with so much success at Darlington has to be in consideration along with Logano and Keselowski from the Penske team.
I will caution folks that although I have Hamlin loaded as a winner just not sure he’s a strong value so far this season, but he loves this track and with a top 10 position he get’s some action. Ryan Newman is a the best longshot on the card as he starts top 10, top 10 start has produced the winner here 86.3% of the time, and is a past winner here. The 31 car usually ran well here and I like Newman to get a shot at some point. I will be laying some heavy chalk on the HTH’s but these should cash today. Two drivers not on my card that concern me are Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. Don’t waste money on a win from anyone starting outside the top 20 start like Jimmie Johnson as the numbers are 5.4% winner from that are of the field.
Next weekend is off for Holiday and then they will pick back up in Richmond for another Saturday Night Race then it’s some more restrictor racing in Talladega. I wish you all the very best today. I will not be watching but recording the race for tomorrow so once it starts I will not be looking in or commenting till tomorrow. Once again Good Luck and see you in a couple weeks.
NASCAR - 2014 Bojangles Southern 500 Preview
Site: Darlington Motor Speedway, Darlington, South Carolina
Track: 1.366 mile Oval with 23-25º banking
Annual: 65th
Television: FOX
Start Time: 6:45 p.m. (EPT)
Defending Champion: Matt Kenseth
Runner-up: Denny Hamlin
To Win:
1* Kevin Harvick +600 (GRK), or 1.00% of season bankroll.
1* Jeff Gordon +700 (GRK), or 1.00% of season bankroll.
?* Joey Logano +800 (GRK), or .875% of season bankroll.
?* Denny Hamlin +1500 (GRK), or .625% of season bankroll.
Longshot to Win:
2½* Ryan Newman +3000 (GRK), or .250% of season bankroll.
Head to Head:
3* B. Keselowski (-150) (GRK) over M. Kenseth, or 3.225% of season bankroll.
3* J. Gordon (-140) (GRK) over M. Kenseth, or 3.225% of season bankroll.
3* A. Almirola (-180) (GRK) over A.J. Allmendinger, or 3.225% of season bankroll.
1¼* M. Truex Jr (+100) (GRK) over P. Menard, or 1.075% of season bankroll.