Re: Horse betting systems and handicapping angles.

Horse betting systems and handicapping angles.
For as long as people have been betting on horse racing, they have been looking for a system that would allow them to pick winning horses.  Enormous amounts of data has been collected and analyzed by people and computers, hoping to find a magic system that would produce winning picks on a regular basis.  It has not been found.  There is no simple system that will allow you to beat the races on a regular basis.  However, you can make money consistently at the racetrack through hard work and practice.  The systems and angles provided here are intended as a primer on handicapping horse races.  None of these systems or angles work all of the time, but they might give you a good starting point for ways to look at a race, and how to handicap using different methods that have been known to identify horses that might have a winning chance.  Good luck and remember, there is no such thing as a sure thing!
Short in last race off a layoff.
With this angle you are looking for a horse that came off a layoff in his last race.  If he showed speed and faded at the end of the race, or has a closing running style and came up short at the finish, he might be a horse to bet in his next start.  The idea being that the horse needed a freshener and will improve in his next start.
Z Pattern or Up and Down running line betting system.
When looking at the horses past performances, you note that he started well lost ground during the middle of the race and then came back at the end, improving his position.  An indication of "heart" or perhaps he ran into trouble, in any case horses that exhibit this running style in previous races often come back to run big.  Make sure that the horse did not improve at the end by only passing tiring rivals.
Lone speed dropping in class or shortening.
Any time you can find a horse who possesses the lone speed in a race he is worth a long look.  When you find a horse with lone speed who is dropping in class or shortening distance, watch out.  Speed wins and when a horse gets a loose uncontested lead in a race they often wire the field.
Morning line odds drop
When looking at the odds of the field as post time approaches, if you notice that a horse is going off at odds considerably lower than his morning line, pay attention.  The theory is that those in the "know" are expecting a big race out of the horse.  This is most often seen in maiden races loaded with first time starters.  When a horse is tearing it up on the training track, word gets around and those horses are often bet heavily by folks on the backside.
Early speed post improvement angle.
This betting system has found many longshot winners.  When looking at a race, find a horse that showed early speed in his last start and held his position for at least the first two calls.  If that horse is improving his post position today (closer to the rail) then he is worth a bet.  If that horse is moving up in class, and his current odds are lower than his post time odds last time out, then give him extra consideration as a live horse.
Surface switch angle
Turf to dirt, or dirt to turf.  The theory behind betting a horse making a surface switch has to do with the likelihood that the trainer has determined that the horse will improve on the new surface.  Dirt racetracks are harder on the horse physically.  The horse will slide more on a dirt track than a turf track.  If he has any soreness in the legs, it will be aggravated by running on dirt, a switch to turf will lessen and discomfort the horse may have.  A horse going from turf to dirt may have more confidence and be sounder than a horse that has only been running dirt races.
Jockey improvement
When a horse has a new jockey with a higher win percentage than the jockey in his previous races it is often a sign of good things to come.  Jockeys with high win percentages often get their pick of horses in a race, and factors unknown to the general public may often be behind their decision to ride a horse that looks to be outclassed in a given race.  When you see a positive jockey switch pay attention to the toteboard.
Speed selection betting system
With this betting system you eliminate horses and races based on the following criteria.
1. Do not play any race with more than 2 first time starters (most maiden races would be passed)
2. Eliminate any horse whose last two races were not run at the same track as today's race.
3. Eliminate any horse whose last race was more or less than one furlong different than today's race.
4. Eliminate any horse whose last two races were on a different surface than today's race.
5. If the horse was not on the lead or within 3 lengths of the leader at every call in his last race, eliminate the horse. 
If you are left with more than one horse, bet the horse with the best last race Beyer speed figure to win and box it with the other qualifying horses in an exacta.  If more than 3 horses qualify, pass the race.
Points based horse betting system.
With this system you give points to each horse based on the following rules, the horse with the most points will be your selection for the race.
1. Look at the last four races for each horse. Add the two best Beyer speed figures earned in those four races together.  The horse with the highest combined Beyer score gets 4 points, the second best Beyer score gets 2 points.
2. Look at the last two races for each horse.  And combine the lengths each horse was beaten together.  If a horse won the race it counts as zero.  A horse that won its last two starts would earn a total of zero.  A horse that lost one race by 5 lengths, and another by 1/2 length would earn a 5.5.  The horse with the lowest number in this step would earn 3 points and the second best horse will earn 2.  If two or more horses won their last 2 races then do not add points to any horse.
3. Any horse whose trainer has a win percentage of 10% or better earns 2 points.
4. Any horse whose jockey has a win percentage of 10% or better earns 1 point.
5. If the race is a route race (longer than one mile) deduct one point for each horse in posts 9-12.
6. If the race is a sprint (less than one mile) award 1 point for each horse that was within 3 lengths of the lead at each call of his last race.
7. If the race is route race on dirt, add 1 point if the horse's last race was on the turf.
8. Add 1 point for any horse using lasix for the first time.
9. The horse with the most points is the horse to bet on with the following exception.  If the horse with highest amount of points is not at least 3 points higher than the horse with the second most points, pass the race. 

Dutch Betting System
This is not a handicapping method, but a betting system that is used to cover several horses in a race.  The idea behind the system is that the more horses you bet, the better chance you have of winning.  Of course, the payoff on your winning horse has to cover the cost of the bets on the losing horses.  In this system, the player sets an amount that he hopes to win on the race, lets say $100 for our example.  He then calculates how much he needs to bet on a particular horse to generate a $100 return.  If Horse "A" is 4:1 in the betting pool, he would return $10 for a $2 bet.  In order to get back $100 on Horse "A" you would bet $20 to win, resulting in a $100 payout ($80 profit + your original $20 bet).  If horse "B" was 2:1, it would pay $6 to win, so you would need to bet approximately $34 on that horse to get back $100.  If horse "C" is 9:1, it would return $20 for a $2 bet, therefore you would need to bet $10 in order to get back $100.  So covering all three horses (Horse A at 4:1, Horse B at 2:1, and Horse C at 9:1) would cost you $64.  If any one of them won you would get back $100 and realize a $36 dollar profit.  Of course, if none of them won you would be out $100 and in bad shape.  This system is mainly used when a handicapper does not like the betting favorites in a race and feels that one of the "longshots" will win the race.  Using a Dutch system he can cover several of the longer priced horses and still make a profit regardless of the outcome.

DUTCH BETTING CHART
Use this chart to figure out how much money you would need to bet on a horse in order to generate a $100 payback. Bet as many horses as you would like as long as your total outlay is less than $100.