Re: My WNBA Plays

 

 

Let?s take a look at the best and worst WNBA teams, as well as the best ?over' and ?under' teams.

 

Who's hot?

 

Indiana Fever (6-2 ATS, 6-2 SU)

 

The Fever has proven to be the most lucrative wager in the WNBA throughout their first eight games by getting decent production at both ends of the court. The offense comes in ranked seventh in the league in scoring with an average of 74.9 points per game while the defense ranks third limiting opponents to 71.1 ppg

 

Purdue Boilermaker product Katie Douglas is the team's best scoring threat averaging 18.1 PPG, while Tennessee standout Tamika Catchings leads the team in rebounding (6.5/game) and steals (3.1/game).

 

Washington Mystics (5-2 ATS, 4-3 SU)

 

The second best bet in the women's league is surprisingly the Mystics led by head coach Julie Plank. This franchise struggled enormously a year ago, winning 10 of its 34 lined games while covering the number just 12 times.

 

This past season's overhaul of the team, which included replacing the general manager and head coach, has seen the Mystics already win four games. They started the season off 3-0 both SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread) with wins against two of the Eastern Conference's best teams from a year ago, the Detroit Shock and Connecticut Sun.

 

Duke sensation Alana Beard is the offensive standout averaging close to 20 PPG (19.3), while Crystal Langhorne leads the league in rebounding hauling down an average of 8.4 per game.

 

Who's not?

 

Sacramento Monarchs (1-7 ATS, 1-7 SU)

 

Since winning the WNBA Championship back in 2005 and losing to the Detroit shock in the Finals the following season, the Monarchs have struggled losing in the Conference semifinals each of the last two seasons.

 

After compiling 18-16 SU and 18-15-1 ATS marks a year ago, the Monarchs have stumbled out of the gates losing seven of their first eight games both SU and ATS.

 

Since dropping a 71-61 decision in their season opener as 2-point home chalks against Seattle, the Monarchs have been underdogs every game since. Both the offense and defense ranks in the bottom half of the league.

 

Look for Sacramento to continue to struggle if they don't at the very least find their way at one end of the court.

 

Detroit Shock (2-5 ATS, 2-5 SU)

 

The Shock closed out their respective 2008 WNBA betting campaign in style by sweeping the San Antonio Silver Stars to capture the third championship in the franchise's history. The defense of the title has been rough to say the least.

 

Though it's only been outscored by an average of 2.4 PPG throughout its first seven games, Detroit's won and covered just two games for its wagering supporters. In the early going, it looks as if WNBA bettors should look to fade the Shock on the road (0-3 SU & ATS) and only look to play them at home (2-2 SU & ATS).

 

Lighting it up!

 

Phoenix Mercury (8-2 O/U)

 

The Mercury have closely resembled Phoenix Suns teams from the past that were all about outscoring their opponents and leaving a ton to be desired at the defensive end of the court.

 

Through their first 10 games of the season, the Mercury have scored a league best 90.4 PPG mostly due to having the league's second highest scorer in former UConn Husky Diana Taurasi.

 

That saidm they're the worst ranked defense of the 13 WNBA teams. If you're looking for some fast paced high scoring action, set your sights on the desert where the Mercury are 5-1 to the ?over' on the year.

 

Snooze alert...

 

Los Angeles Sparks (2-6-1 O/U)

 

The Sparks have been all about defense to start their respective 2009 WNBA campaign. This ultimately has allowed sports bettors to cash the under at a 75 percent clip throughout their first nine games.

 

L.A. boasts the second-best defense in the league allowing an average of just 69.9 PPG while allowing opponents to convert at a 41.1 percent clip from the field. With the offense just barely surpassing the 70-point plateau (70.4 PPG), it's no wonder the Sparks have been the best ?under' team to kickoff the WNBA season.

 

With the Sparks first six games averaging out to a 154-point ?total', oddsmakers have since released each of their last two games at 137 meaning they've caught onto the Sparks ?under' tendency. Be on the lookout for some value on the ?over' in the coming weeks, especially against teams that are flawed defensively and excelled offensively.

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 Mystics and Dream Over 167 (1unit) Loss

The Atlanta Dream plays very aggressive but shaky defense which leads to a lot of fouls. The dream isnear the top of the league in fouls committed. The dream love topush the basketball and the tempo. The mystics also like to run and have the leagues leading rebounder. These teams have already played twice, the first meeting went under but was the 2nd day of the season and the 2nd meeting went over by 22 points and that was two weeks ago. Atlanta has only covered once in its last 4 home games, and it was against the mystics whom they have beaten twice already.

Sky silverstars Over 141.5 (2units)Easy Winner

San Antonio plays at a quicker tempo at home where they are 1 of the wnba's best home teams. The thing about the sky are they are the wnba's best 3pt shooting team and when they get hot from the arc the over is easy .But they also play agressive, scrappy defense and commit a lot of fouls too. If both teams score in the 70's then we have our over which is easy

 

21-17-2 (+5.60 units) now 22-18-2 (+6.60)

I took a weekend trip and ended up in a casino and was talking to a pretty woman and her friend. The pretty woman was playing a slot machine and won $150-200 right away and kept playing trying to get to $200 before losing it all. She went from being friendly to very unapproachable and unreceptive. Me and her friend hinted to leave the machine alone,the woman at the slot next to her put in a $20 got to $120 and down to $100 and left. I told her you rarely catch money when your chasing it. 

 Chicago Sky +6.5 ( 1 unit) Loser and ( .5 unit) Winner over 147 Sacramento

The over is 5-2 last 7 meetings. The monarchs are the best rebounding team in the wnba, the sky are next to last in the league. The monarchs also get their shots blocked more than any other team in the league, the sky has a pair of 6-6 centers. The sky likes to get after people defensively, which can lead to more fouls being whistled, more fouls means more free throws and points without the clock running..The sky are the wnba's best three point shooting team and can get hot quickly. The monarchs are one of those teams that doesnt set a pace, they tend to follow the pace. They have ran with phoenix and played slow with the sparks and storm.

Connecticut Sun -1  ( 1.5 units ) Loss  and  Sun/Atlanta Dream Under 157 Easy Winner (.5 unit)

This is the 3rd meeting of these 2 teams and neither has gone over and yet the total is going higher each time. The sun commit the fewest turnovers in the wnba and  as a team have the most assists per game. The dream has always played an uptempo and agressive defense leading them to lead the league in fouls commit. The dream are the worst 3pt shooting team and worst perimeter defense in the league. The sun play more disciplined then the dream.

Lynx/Mystics  Over 164.5 (1 unit) Winner in OT

The over is 4-1 last 5 meetings , the loss was by 2. The mystics like to play uptempo as well as the lynx. The mystics are 3rd and the Lynx are 5th in fouls committed pergame. The mystics lead the league in fouls drawn per game. I like to check out foul numbers  because more fouls lead to more free throws which lead to free points to help with an over.  If the fouls whistled get past 42, then the over should go down. also another thing to watch the mystics point guard Lyndsey Harding played for the lynx before being traded will she play with a chip on her shoulder or her game. She was often injured in minnesota.

25-20-2 (+6.10 units)

 

Seattle- Sacramento Over 141 (1 unit) Loss

These two teams met the first two games of the season with seattle winning both by 10 points. The totals was 132 @ Sacramento and 152 @Seattle. Sacramento is one of those teams that follows a pace and never sets it. The storm are one of the best field goal defense teams in the league, have one of the leagues best players in Lauren Jackson. The monarchs are the best rebounding team, but seattle has a tremendous homecourt advantage. We need the over and sacremento's scrappy defense lends itself to getting a few fouls called and the storm being the league's best free throw shooting team. These two teams have just enough firepower combined to get over.

Im not touching the Sparks and Liberty, cant get a read either way

 

 Seattle -12

This play is a combination of chicago playing its 4th game in 6 days, back to back out west and then home and then back out west. Sylvia Fowles is still day to day with her knee injury and her presence is missing on both ends. Her back-up is only averaging 3pts and 2 rebounds per game. The tired legs will show in the 2nd half and those 3 point shots will  come up short for the sky. The storm have been one of the best home teams in the wnba .

jmoo2k8

 Seattle -12

This play is a combination of chicago playing its 4th game in 6 days, back to back out west and then home and then back out west. Sylvia Fowles is still day to day with her knee injury and her presence is missing on both ends. Her back-up is only averaging 3pts and 2 rebounds per game. The tired legs will show in the 2nd half and those 3 point shots will  come up short for the sky. The storm have been one of the best home teams in the wnba .

Good luck buddy. I was thinking about first half Seattle -6

Sky +9.5  Lost by the hook and a 90% free throw shooter missing 1 of 2 and Over 143.5 Easy Winner

Over is 7-1 in CHI last 8 road games. CHI are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. Over is 11-4 in CHI last 15 overall.
	IND are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Over is 6-2 in IND last 8 Wed. games.

 The fever have been on a roll since losing their first 2 games. They number has gone up to around 145 now, but very easy for these two teams. the sky are the league leaders in 3pt shooting and play aggressive on the defensive side. The fever are a steadier mid empo team that can run

 

Mystics/Siverstars Ov 144.5 Easy Winner

I think the number is a little low, the mystics like to run and the return of marissa coleman and her perimeter shooting has improved their offense. The silverstars are a different team away from home, they tend to follow the tempo as oppose to setting it. The mystics a a team draw the most fouls in the wnba.

 

• Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
• Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Washington.
• Silver Stars are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
• Over is 9-3 in Mystics last 12 home games.
• Over is 56-22 in Mystics last 78 vs. Western Conference.
• Over is 5-2 in Mystics last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Under is 9-4-1 in Mystics last 14 games following a S.U. win.

Lynx/ Dream Over 167.5  Winner Barely, defense shows up in the 4th quarter

These two teams love to run and gun. The dream are not a good defensive team, commit the most fouls and the worst perimeter shooting and perimeter d-team in the wnba.the lynx love the run. The styles of play are perfect for the over. The total was 176 the last time these two teams met. The number is going down,i got an overnight line @ 167.5 and found it at 165,this morning.

	Over is 8-1 in MIN last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 46-17 in MIN last 63 overall. Over is 23-9 in MIN last 32 home games.

 Mercury -7 Winner  and under 178.5 lost on a late 3

The monarchs are in a state of flux and they traditionally do not play well in Phoenix.The line is this high because of the recent 212 point eeting between the two. The monarchs are 1-7 away from home this season. the priormeeting in phoenix had a spread around 6.5-7

 

4-2 on the day, now 29-24-2 (+6.10 units)

Note Lauren Jackson is out for seattle, she is a 19pt  7 rebound ppg player for the storm and one of the leagues best players. The storm won both meetings with the monarchs by 10. I wondered why the monarchs were favored as bad as they are playing.  

Storm/Monarchs Over 137.5  Loss, I should have followed my 1st instinctwhich was storm +3,but i changed my mind.

The monarchs are at home and will try to push the tempo a little more since Jackson isnt clogging the middle. The storm will have to rely on more perimeter players . The monarchs have been playing bette as of late despite being 3-11. 

 I had a split made a late unposted atlanta over play, this was a posted loss 29-25-2 (+5.10 Units)

 I think Taurasi's suspension starts today for the Mercury, its 2 games tonight against the shock and the lynx. The storm play the lynx sunday I believe, so those games i expect an adjusted line. This is from the mercury website

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Sky/Silverstars Over 147 (1.5 units) Winner

The sky are still the top 3 pt shooting team in the WNBA           The sky play uptempo basketball, and play agressive defense, tend to go for a lot steals. These two teams commit the fewest fouls per team in the league and are 2 of the 3 worst rebounding teams in the wnba. The last meeting the total was 144-145 and the total hit 158. This should be a battle of the backcourts, 

Fever +110 (.5 unit)Loss/Sun Over 139 Loss(1unit)  Well 23% shooting until the middle of the 4th quarter is something you cannot predict or cap.5 points in 4minutes and 29 the final6minutes. The over was the play but sometimes things happen beyond a bettor's control and this was one of them  and the fever shot 28.8% for the game when likely38% gets us an over.

The fever have won 11 straight, and lead the wnba in steals and turnovers forced. The sun commit the fewest turnovers per game but are last in fg pct in the league. These two teams are 2 of the top 3 teams in fewest points allowed per game the fever 69.4 and the sun 70.1. this looks like a barely over game, these two teams commit and draw around 20 fouls per game.

Minnesota +4.5 (1unit) Winner /Seattle Over 147.5 (2units) loss

despite lauren jackson being out, her injury will open space for minnesota's big players to run the floor and driving lanes. The lynx will play their usual style and the storm will have to rely on their perimeter players because janell burse only averges 4pts and 3 rpg as jackson replacement. This game was  well on pace togo over and either minnesota went cold and seattle slowed the game down and  just enough to keep it under.  

Dream +3 (.5unit) Push  and over 147.5  Winner by 27(.5unit)

The dream are going to run and run, since they cant stop anybody and are now the 2nd worse 3pt shooting team in the league. The liberty will be coming off of a gslow grinding game in washington. the dreamcan draw almost anyone intoa running game with their shaky defense and constant pushing the basketball.

the numbers are from bet us overnight lines

29-25-2 (+5.10 units) now 32-28-3 (+4.60)