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PHOENIX OPEN / DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC

Thread Starter PHOENIX OPEN / DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC
madmoney
Joined: 08/29/2011
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going right into it. interesting schedules for some of these players this week. for example, BEN CURTIS after playing in that monday finish @ farmers is in this fields DDC. another example is LEE WESTWOOD who is making his first start of the year this week, and this is interesting because lee normally plays the earlier events in this desert swing but also he made a big move in the offseason moving his home to florida, so now he can play golf year round. in his press conference he said all the right things like he normally does, but you get a feel that a change like that is something he has to do if he wants to win the big tournaments and he realizes he needs to find something that will give him that edge and this could be it. certainly would make sense, he says he just locks up his clubs normally in the winter at his old home but now in FL he feels like he got in great practice with his short game and putting. not thrilled about him not playing so far this year, but i think he's worth a play.

GARCIA this week is the odds on fav, and for good reason, he looked pretty sharp last week and had only 4bogeys all week!! unfortunately to me the biggest 1 came in the 3rd rd on the final hole when he had to lay up on his 2nd shot on the par5 and had ~130yds left for his 3rd, and he basically left it short in the water and made bogey. so yes i would think this was the difference in the tournament as he lost by 1 to CHRIS WOOD, who the week before came in dead last after making the cut at abu dhabi. garcia's biggest thing holding him back used to be the putter, now i think its him not hitting it close enough, lol which he hits it right on point most of the time. he looks really sharp, would be surprised if he doesn't come out again this week firing at these tight green targets and with atleast a top10.

for CHRIS WOOD, last week's win came from his great ball striking from long range. the 6'5 englishman was #2 in par5scoring and #1 in hitting the par5s in 2, which coming on those par5s was a big advantage for him because the avg par5 distance was over easily 570yds which for most players that is a lay up. it was mostly his ball striking that helped him secure the win this week as he hit a healthy 59/72 GIR, which is pretty dam solid but also didn't give much up putting by not 3putting. to conclude, he didn't really have to do much other than just good ball striking and taking advantage of the par5s, which i see the same thing this week. easier said than done always. HOWEVER, the par5s this week is an equal opportunity group of par5s that they are short to say the least and are accessible by most players. the wind will be a factor this week as it looks to be higher than what it was last week in DOHA which was uncharacteristic of that course, so scores were pretty low. this week, i see the same thing, maybe including a few other random names in the mix, but for the most part i see it being a heavy fav leading week.

DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC

5.6/1 S. GARCIA(2u) --  to win L

8.05/1 L. WESTWOOD(1.5u) -- to win L

12.5/1 H. STENSON(.2u) -- to win L

18/1 R. C-BELLO(.2u) -- to win L

27/1 P. CASEY(.2u) -- to win L

45/1 J. LUITEN(.1u) -- to win L

60/1 R. RAMSAY(.1u) -- to win L

70/1 M. CAMPBELL(.1u) -- to win L

100/1 R. SANTOS(.1u) -- to win L

110/1 A. WALL(.1u) -- to win L

150/1 F. ANDERSSON-HED(.1u) -- to win L

160/1 J. SJOHOLM(.1u) -- to win L

180/1 L. GAGLI(.1u) -- to win L

225/1 A. SULLIVAN(.1u) -- to win L

2.15/1 L. WESTWOOD(.5u) -- top5 W

2.75/1 P. CASEY(.5u) -- top10 L

8.05/1 R. SANTOS(.5u) -- top10 W

9.5/1 F. ANDERSSON-HED(.5u) --  top10 L

10.5/1 A. SULLIVAN(.5u) -- top10 L 

krguer(-105) / singh(.5u) -- tour mu L

ramsay(-135) / jamieson(.5u) -- tour mu L

santos(-110) / green(.5u) -- tour mu W

curtis(-110) / siem(.5u) -- tour mu L

casey(+145) / manassero / wiesberger(.5u) -- 2nd rd 3-ball L

santos(+130) / campbell / kjeldsen(.5u) -- 2nd rd 3-ball W*partial

fraser(-110) / bjorn(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu W

howell(-120) / sterne(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu W 

webster(-165) / larrazabal(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu W

wood(+120) / manassero(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L

wiesberger(-125) / siem(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L

singh(+130) / pe. lawrie(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu W

jaidee(-130) / casey(.5u) -- 4th rd mu L

van zyl(-125) / larrazabal(.5u) -- 4th rd mu L

PHOENIX OPEN

13.5/1 J. DUFNER(1u) -- to win L

17.5/1 B. SNEDEKER(1u) -- to win L

20/1 N. WATNEY(.5u) -- to win L

35/1 B. VAN PELT(.5u) -- to win L

35/1 H. MAHAN(.5u) -- to win L

200/1 B. MOLDER(.1u) -- to win L

2.25/1 N. WATNEY(.5u) -- top10 L

2.5/1 R. FOWLER(.5u) -- top10 L

2.7/1 C. HOWELL III(.5u) -- top10 L

2.8/1 B. VAN PELT(.5u) -- top10 L

3.25/1 J. DAY(.5u) -- top10 L

4/1 H. MAHAN(.5u) -- top10 L

4.5/1 B. HAAS(.5u) -- top10 W

12.5/1 B. MOLDER(.5u) -- top10 L 

30/1 J. DUFNER(.1u) -- 1st rd leader L

30/1 B. SNEDEKER(.1u) -- 1st rd leader L

34/1 N. WATNEY(.1u) -- 1st rd leader L

85/1 J. OVERTON(.1u) -- 1st rd leader L

watney(-120) / mickelson(1u) -- tour mu L

watney(-115) / mickelson(.5u) -- 1st rd mu L

fowler(-120) / mickelson(1u) -- tour mu L

fowler(-120) / mickelson(.5u) -- 1st rd mu L

leishman(-140) / steele(.5u) -- tour mu L

woodland -.5(-110) / cink(.5u) -- 1st rd mu W

piercy -.5(-109) / huh(.5u) -- 1st rd mu W

howell III -.5(-116) / cauley(.5u) -- 1st rd mu W

toms -.5(+110) / na(.5u) -- 1st rd mu L

gay(-145) / choi(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu W

glover(-105) / m. thompson(1u) -- 2nd rd mu W

perez -.5(-120) / barnes(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu W

fritsch(-115) / love III(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu

gay(+120) / garrigus(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L

rollins(+110) / moore(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L

chalmers(+150) / piercy(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L

wittenberg(+115) / english(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu W

watson -.5(-112) / mahan(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L

howell III -.5(-112) / harrington(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L

de jonge-.5(-105) / woodland(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W

horschel-.5(-109) / castro(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W

horschel -.5(EV) / castro(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W

mahan(-110) / garrigus(.5u) -- 4th rd mu L

steele -.5(-105) / matteson(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W

crane -.5(-109) / chalmers(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W

rollins -.5(-112) / cabrera(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W

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madmoney
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card complete for DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC. starts in an hr.

working on the PHOENIX OPEN. for DDC, weather looks like it will be a lot tougher this week than it was last week. wind will change throughout the day so that will make things even harder to adjust during the week for the players, so looking for some experience on this course as well as ball striking.

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madmoney
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driving will be key @ PHOENIX OPEN this week. this course demands it as youre going to have to take on some tight spots off the tee to take advantage of scoring, otherwise you may have to set your self up for pars on some of these holes for your 2nd shots. not necessarily mean hitting driver off the tee, gonna have to use 3woods. light wind this week, scores should be low, predict around -19. scores have been awesome so far this year, and dont see it stopping. phils driving last 2 events has been alright, but it has been loose in spots and its going to need to be constantly on this week on certain holes.

rest of the PHOENIX OPEN card is complete. will monitor just before tee off @ 7:30am local time.

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madmoney
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wind will play a factor for rd2 @ DDC as well as the rest of the week.

here are rd2 plays, will add more from PHOENIX OPEN later in the night.

casey(+145) / manassero / wiesberger(.5u) -- 2nd rd 3-ball

santos(+130) / campbell / kjeldsen(.5u) -- 2nd rd 3-ball 

fraser(-110) / bjorn(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu

howell(-120) / sterne(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu 

webster(-165) / larrazabal(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu

*adding this to PGA card...

gay(-145) / choi(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu

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madmoney
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2nd rd mu's for PHOENIX OPEN...

glover(-105) / m. thompson(1u) -- 2nd rd mu

perez -.5(-120) / barnes(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu

fritsch(-115) / love III(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu

gay(-145) / choi(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu

phil last year had the lead after 1 rd twice, and didn't go on to win. so we'll see if he can keep the petal to the metal. knowing phil, it wont be easy following him for those that have him, and for those are rooting against him like me, you can't help but be amazed by his golfing ability. have some other things that i have my eye on, as far as his timing with his swing, because he's said in the last few weeks hes been dealing with that. as always we'll see, love going against tiger last week and now phil this week. you keep doing that, you're going to lose your shirt eventually, talking about over 110wins on the pga tour between the 2, so ya odds are not in your favor.

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madmoney
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3rd rd mu's for DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC

wood(+120) / manassero(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu

wiesberger(-125) / siem(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu

singh(+130) / pe. lawrie(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu *added this 1. this is another fishy 1, though will just go on the idea that singh in post interview after rd2 said that he had a good meeting with a friend/coach of his this week about putting, last time he said he met with him, he won the SCOTTISH OPEN. peter lawrie is no slouch, though again price seems to good to pass up.

so much for wind in rd2, "should" pickup for rd3 as there has been some storm near by that hasn't hit the course yet. not sure about wood mu something seems fishy about this 1, but wood has better history than manassero at DDC, though manassero has some 3rd success recently. not a bad price for last week's champ, which is why they hooked me in.

will add PGA later in the night.

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madmoney
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ugh so much for DUBAI for my horses with gallacher playing amazing and a few others. see how things go the rest of rd3. here are 3rd rd plays for PHOENIX OPEN.

gay(+120) / garrigus(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu

rollins(+110) / moore(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu

chalmers(+150) / piercy(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu

wittenberg(+115) / english(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu

watson -.5(-112) / mahan(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu

howell -.5(-112) / harrington(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu

see how this goes. may post some more before rd3 starts.

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madmoney
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bad results for 3rd rd mu's for PGA, almost eeked some profit in EURO mus, but for PGA it was bad from the get go. thought HARRINGTON seemed quite comfortable with the atmosphere in rd3, is his 1st time @ this event, others seemed to start to get bothered by it as their rds were stalling. massive crowds this week. GAY mu was 50/50 i thought just because of the # and it looking weird, can see now as he has been somewhat sick himself and made me sick seeing him miss a 4fter for birdie at 1 point during the rd. the WATSON mu i thought was a bit loose because of MAHAN, and the other 3 i felt good with. not the results i wanted to carry on this week.

moving on to the EURO as for my horses, WESTWOOD managed to shoot low for rd3 to get within a shot or 2 when he was done with his rd, to then at the end of the day find himself behind 9. GARCIA was complaining after the rd2 of shoulder tigthness so not sure how that played into rd3, but he definitely wasn't as sharp with his ball striking as he was the last 5-6 rds he's played so far this year.

have some guys lurking around top10. here are some rd4 mu's to cap the week. rd4 starts in about 30minutes. winds looked to not be that much of a problem for rd3, some rain though, rd4 weather is up in the air at this point, though i lean to it not changing much. will monitor, and may add some late plays.

jaidee(-130) / casey(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

van zyl(-125) / larrazabal(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

*garbage for rd4 mus for EURO. sucked. not even close. wind is really blowing for rd4, and thru2, gallacher's lead is gone. things are going to be very interesting.

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madmoney
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going with this to start.

de jonge-.5(-105) / woodland(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

horschel-.5(-109) / castro(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

horschel -.5(EV) / castro(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

mahan(-110) / garrigus(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

steele -.5(-105) / matteson(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

crane -.5(-109) / chalmers(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

rollins -.5(-112) / cabrera(.5u) -- 4th rd mu

looking into more. should slow things down, just am gonna try and close it out as normal as you would think the 4th rd today wont be like other 4th rds that some of these guys will face. see if it can payoff on the last day.

fkin gallacher, with 5eagles this week looking like he will pick up the trophy this week @ DUBAI up 3 with a hole left. amazing. westwood, was westwood, being soo good and after watching him you feel like he couldve saved a bunch of shots. well another week down, and it looks to be another loser. will tally it up after the PHOENIX OPEN.

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madmoney
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here's final tally for last week. not as bad as i thought, the eye opener obviously is going 0-14 @ DUBAI for -5u. sterne was on my radar, gallacher wasn't even close to my radar as he seemed he was floundering with his game before last week, and its sort of ironic that he and mickelson both credited their wins this week to their new drivers. i mean there were other parts of their game that helped them obviously, especially gallacher having 5eagles on the week, but the driving was very noticeable during both of their tournament runs. 

(PHOENIX OPEN)January 8- February 3 2013

props (to win) 0-6 = -3.6u

props(top10) 1-7 = -1.25u

props(1st rd leader) 0-4 = -.4u

tour mu 0-3 = -3.1u

1st rd mu 3-3 = -.175u

2nd rd mu 3-0 = +2u

3rd rd mu 1-5 = -2.045u

4th rd mu 6-1 = +2.45u

FINAL TALLY)=-6.12u

(DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC)January 28- February 3 2013

props (to win) 0-14 = -5u

props(top5) 1-0 = +1.075u

props(top10) 1-3 = +2.525u

tour mu 1-3 = -1.25u

2nd rd mu 3-0 = +1.5u

2nd rd (3-ball) 1-1 = -.174u

3rd rd mu 1-2 = -.475u

4th rd mu 0-2 = -1.275u

FINAL TALLY)=-3.074u

not horrendous, but still looking to make profit so this won't do. onto JOHANNESBURG for the JOBURG OPEN for the EUROs, and for the PGA, they head to northern CA for the AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO AM. few names making their way from the DDC last week to the AT&T, such as westwood, noh(farmers/DDC/now pebble, try telling that to snead 50yrs ago), and bello. few other interesting names heading into this week, but the 2 im sure most will have their eye on is phil and DJ. will be interesting to see how they carry their games into this week. they expect some rain this week, last few weeks they have gotten a little more rain than last year, as always i will keep monitoring this before tee off on thursday. till next thread.

*thru 9events on the year, am -37.244u.

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