after another bad week, i will keep going on as planned, may be a little more inclined this week to be a little more on the cautious side, will do my best to turn this thing around. tread lightly. haven't picked a winner for a month now over the last 4weeks, starting with the pga.
i closed last week's with the thought of rory/tiger vs the field, this week im torn with that. rory to me seems like any young kid, focused when he needs to at the job at hand, but after a week or 2 weeks of playing and reaching the peek like he did last week, this week i think could be a let down for him. considering he still has the tour championship next week and the ryder cup after. he did play 3 weeks in a row 1point this year, during the memorial/st jude classic/us open. went MC/t7/MC. he did miss the cut before that at the players but lost in a playoff to fowler the week before at wells fargo.
theres my case for rory not to be there in contention this week, not to say he isn't capable, easy cop out, but he is rory mcilroy afterall though is capable of being off just enough to throw the rest of his game off. this week being #1 and having to repeat after 2 great performances in the last 4weeks in his 5th week playing, i think he is off just enough on this particular course where accuracy is key. the 2 courses he has won where alot wider than the course this week.
crooked stick was host to pga championship in 1991 and i heard this course explained perfectly in 1 word, "angular". you will have to hit in certain areas with very little room for error left or right of the target. if i can be allowed to be a dork here just for a minute, this course is hybrid of the kiawah course/bridgestone/and harbour town. only say that, cuz you need to be accurate while having to be placed correctly to have the right angles into the greens. those 3 courses remind me of this course this week. granted 2 of them are by the same course architect, pete dye.
course ends with par 4/3/4, all 3 of which will require an iron if placed in good position off the tee on the par 4's, all 3 will require some sort of long iron, which i give the edge to a few names. if not them, then the guys who do miss the green that can get up and down. it will be tough this week, scoring wont be as low as it was last week, will require alot more up and downs around these greens to keep up the pace. you wont be seeing 14+ girs hit by alot of guys this week, then again, these guys are pretty freaking good. in that 1991 pga championship, only 7 players shot 67 as the lowest score for the week, par being 72.
6.6/1 T. WOODS(2u) -- to win L
25/1 J. DUFNER(1u) -- to win L
27/1 S. GARCIA(1u) -- to win L
30/1 K. BRADLEY(1u) -- to win L
36/1 L. OOSTHUIZEN(1u) -- to win L
haas(-125) / fowler(2u) -- tour mu L
scott(-160) / mickelson(1u) -- tour mu L
bradley(-105) / rose(1u) -- tour mu L
simpson(-105) / watson(.5u) -- tour mu L
pride(-110) / wi(.5u) -- tour mu L
harrington(-120) / mcdowell(.5u) -- tour mu W
harrington(-115) / mcdowell(.5u) -- 1st rd mu L
walker -2.5(-110) / harman(.5u) -- tour mu L
senden(+125) / scott(.5u) -- 1st rd mu L
woods(-115) / mcilroy(1u) -- tour mu L
overton(EV) / mahan(.5u) -- tour mu W
gillis(-125) / points(.5u) -- tour mu W
scott -2.5(-120) / mickelson(.5u) -- tour mu L
holmes -2.5(-130) / hoffman(.5u) -- tour mu W
van pelt(-130) / singh(1u) -- 2rd rd mu L
woods(-115) / mcilroy(1u) -- 2nd rd mu W
pettersson(-140) / hoffman(1u) -- 2nd rd mu P
stricker(+105) / donald(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu L
watney(-125) / mahan(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu W
stadler(EV) / cauley(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu L
haas -.5(-105) / noh(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu W
rose(-105) / oosthuizen(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L
woods(-105) / mcilroy(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L
snedeker(+105) / donald(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu W
harman(+105) / piercy(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu W
poulter(+125) / scott(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L
bradley(EV) / stricker(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L
cauley(+125) / watson(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu L
every(+115) / de jonge(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu P
walker(+185) / piercy / mahan(.5u) -- 3rd rd 3-ball W *(parial +.6)
mickelson(+105) / matteson / kirk(.5u) -- 3rd rd 3-ball W
mcdowell(+130) / noh / delaet(.5u) -- 3rd rd 3-ball W
scott -.5(-129) / garrigus(.5u) -- 4th rd mu L
mickelson -.5(-126) / singh(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W
rose(-120) / furyk(1u) -- 4th rd mu L
woods -.5(+101) / d. johnson(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W
-1.075u for rd1. tiger looked great today as well as 20 other guys. i mentioned that 67 was lowest score of 1991 pga champ, today, there are currently 13 who have shot 67 or better. different times, but lets just say my mark i set to win this week, is being looked at in the rear view mirror by some of these leaders already. also so much for the thoughts on rory, he looked just ok today , only came right out the gate this week to open with -8.
was in and out of watching the golf today, will watch the full telecast later and will give some more thoughts about the course and certain players.
will add these to the card for rd2. tee times are earlier than they would've been because of a storm coming later in the day. course after rd1 got even more rain, wind looks to pick up for rd2 even though that was sort of predicted for rd1 and which didn't look to affect the players at all. it looks to be another shootem up for rd2. sucks if you had rd1 mu for woods/mcilroy, lose with -7. will hope to hit with him for rd2.
van pelt(-130) / singh(1u) -- 2rd rd mu
woods(-115) / mcilroy(1u) -- 2nd rd mu
pettersson(-140) / hoffman(1u) -- 2nd rd mu
stricker(+105) / donald(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu
watney(-125) / mahan(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu
stadler(EV) / cauley(.5u) -- 2nd rd mu
-.8u for rd2. lucky to only lose that, with tiger turning it on late and pettersson with a push after being down 4 with 9 to play, im just really not feeling confident anymore in my picks. my notes are currently being thrown out the window this week, even though i can't say im not too surprised to see singh up at the top. its just a matter of when that goofy swing goes awry like it did at the pga. still reeling from him not cashing that top10 for me.
well i just gotta grind through this and keep doing the research, just some of these observations im making lately are just way the *** off. whatever, gotta keep on the grind. bol everyone who follows, and any of you who do follow see something, please ask, im open to answering questions or just even talking about how to approach betting golf. a weird dynamic thats not like other sports when it comes to betting.
weather looks a little extreme as far as the different forecasts im seeing so far. believe it will play into guys being able to make putts. will have picks up soon...
+.775u for rd3. gonna keep at it, another extremely disappointing round by tiger, who isn't out yet, but that 3rd rd was all over the place. lately these phantom injuries are getting annoying to watch, esp when i keep having $ on him, i would think if you have a limp 3 holes in a row mid rd that you would limp on the last few. looked fine at the end of the rd, i dont know but something to look at for the rest of the year for him. also the misclubbing seems to be getting worse, atleast on his emotions where he sort of snapped on lacava. something to look at as well.
mcilroy, despite looking not at his best he still managed -3. think im starting to learn my lesson to not go up against him with tiger. singh, im still on the side that that swing will start to veer off at some point from what he has been doing so far and will put more pressure on a putter that has done well this week, but isn't the strongest point in his game for a reason.
mickelson, has supposedly been tweaking alot of things with his equipment and his putting grip, which his new grip looks to be a success at this point. he didn't use it earlier in the year at pebble, so we'll see how it holds up tomorrow. his driving is something im more worried about, looks good this week, but wasn't trending well heading into this week, despite a good week last week.
bunch of guys i can keep going on and on about, but this thing is wide open. dont want to bore everyone, but hope this becomes a big success for the pga, amazing times we live in if you are a golf fan.
will add mu's later, the 3-ball was a nice surprise today. despite being wide open, gonna need some help for tiger or even louis to win.
*gonna go with jonpistone and play the same 2 he has in his thread but give the -.5stroke for each mu. other than that, gonna stick with what i have left.
**i lied, gonna add rose to the card against furyk. temped to take rory @ +325 for 2u, still amazed at -3 for rd3 with the way he played. it was nothing impressive and most players would be E or over par. if he shoots -4 sunday, then that might be enough for the win. high wind is predicted for sunday, may make things finally tough on this course.
-13.365u for the week for the BMW championship. the haas/fowler mu has got to be 1of the worst losses ive had in a while. defending fedex cup champ, goes +4 in last 5 being up 3 on fowler to lose the mu. even 3putted last hole to lose. even lost his spot in the tour championship. could'nt believe what i was watching.
well i really needed this week off, not only to stop this massive downswing, but to also clear my head from golf. had alot of great success earlier in the year and mid year, and ever since the pga, my notes/thoughts have been way off, and it has shown big time.
as far as the tiger/rory vs field thought, that is very much the setup for next year it looks. rory looks to be staying in the US, and tiger i would think after constantly fucking up each weekend, and seeing rory win, will really make 2013 a year to remember for golf, not like it hasn't been memorable this year. 2013 is setting up to be a big year for golf, but to close 2012, we still have the TOUR championship next week and the week after the RYDER CUP.
hope to not suck as much the last 2weeks as i have these last few weeks, currently am -62.065u for the last 4weeks, but since posting on pregame 9weeks ago, im still +39.96u. not the best feeling to be -62u in 4weeks, thats gambling for you. also doesn't help when you fade mcilroy for the entire week and he goes on to win both times, maybe count 3x since i wasnt high on him at the deutsche bank. o well, im really not sure what to expect from rory at the tour champ as its hard to sound like i know what im talking when it comes to rory when he has gone on to win 3x in the last 5weeks, but i feel like he is very focused and determined to win this fedex cup. find it very hard to think that he finishes anywhere outside of the top10 at the tour championship, which means that tiger will have to win, and a very small list of guys who can overtake rory if they win, so looking for him to have a good week. crazy prediction i know, but hey you gotta start out small, atleast i didnt completely jump on the bandwagon and say he was gonna win the tour championship.