Forums

Forums
Where sports bettors talk!

Forums

UEFA EURO2012 - 06/28 Germany vs Italy - Play of the Tournament!
andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 3731
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

I've uploaded one Premium Double Dime Play - It's a side Play for the 2nd game of the day, Russia vs Czech Republic! That is all for today's card. I think we have some value with Greece AH but I'm passing... 

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping

andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 3731
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

FT Poland 1 Greece 1! Under 2 = Void. Greece was surprised early on by Poland's right flank and suffered the goal. Somehow they managed to tie the game in the second half and it was pretty clear that Poland doesn't have the offensive talent to play against laid back teams like Greece. 

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping

Matthias Kasson
Joined: 12/15/2009
Posts: 3842
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

You have knowledge about soccer as a child from preschool :)

Matthias Kasson creator of a new generation of television analysis for the Soccer betting.

Own fighting local matador from betting on matthiaskasson.pl

SINGLE DIME   3-2

DOUBLE DIME 2-1

andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 3731
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

FT: Russia 4 Czech Republic 1! The Czechs were totally outclassed in this contest... Premium Play was an easy winner:

Euro 2012 - Group A - Russia vs Czech Republic

***TOP PLAY***

I’ve watched Russia's last friendly match against Italy and they surely impressed me. They won by 3-0 in Italy with all the three goals being scored in the second half, but they missed several chances to score in the first half as well.

The strongest link of Russia is really their chemistry. In my opinion, only Spain has a better team chemistry than Russia and this can hardly be a surprise because of their starting lineup. They will likely use 6 of the 11 players from the same club (Zenit), while 4 of them play in CSKA Moscow, with the remaining player (Zhirkov) being a former CSKA player. So, this is more a traditional club than a national team! Last but not least, their national head coach Dick Advocaat is a former Zenit coach...

Russia plays with an attractive offensive style of football supported by two offensive minded wing backs. They form two triangle formations on the midfield and on the front and all the players from those formations rotate perfectly well. That’s why they are hard to stop and their team chemistry is a key word to describe this team. 

They lack a real superstar player and their center back duo - Berezutski & Ignashevich are a bit slow as a unit. However, this Russian team is in my opinion way better than any other team in the group A.

On the other side, the Czech Republic is far away from the team they were in the last decade. They have problems to create chances to score because they lack creativity on the midfield. Only Thomas Rosicky is capable of creating something offensively and he is coming from an injury. He will reportedly play in this contest, but I doubt that he will be 100% fit as he never had a good stamina.

Their two wing back players are offensive minded and this is in my opinion will hurt the Czechs: these two players are constantly involved in long sprints from the sides and this will open some space behind them that will be explored by the Russians. Czech Republic has a great goalkeeper and a decent defensive back 4 formation, but it’s not enough against a team like Russia.  I expect Russia to score the first goal and then with the Czech Republic looking forward to tie the game, Russia will have multiple chances to score in transition. 

In the last hours there have been a major line movement favoring Czech Rep but I'm sticking with my play, in fact we are now able to get a PK Line so in case of a draw our play will be voided.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Russia PK @ -133 / 1.752 on Pinnacle

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping

andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 3731
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

For today I've found value in the first game of the day, likely we will have one play later for the Portugal vs Germany game, back later...

Euro 2012 - Group B - Netherlands vs Denmark


The Dutch team is one of the favorites to win the tournament and they just can’t afford to not win today because their next 2 games will be against Germany and Portugal, so a bad start will put them an absurd pressure to win the next two tough matches.


Denmark comes into the tournament without their first choice goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen available. They have a good team and their system is similar to the Dutch team: they play with a back four formation, two strong defensive minded holder plays, a playmaker and 3 players on the front. The problem is that their defensive unit is prone to commit mistakes while their offensive players are easily outclassed by the Dutch stars.


Cristian Eriksen is the star and the playmaker of this team and he can really create good chances for his teammates with a diversity arsenal of dribbles and good passes. His performance today will be the key for Denmark and I think he will have some problems to shine against the Dutch duo of defensive holders Van Bommel and De Jong. These two Dutch players have a great defensive positioning and they will always have Eriksen on their radar.

The Dutch defense will be without their center back Joris Mathijsen who has been ruled out of the opener due to injury and this unit doesn’t impress me at all, but by having the ball possession, the Dutch will minimize the chances of their opponents. 

On offense, after losing 1-2 against Bulgaria, the Dutch coach certainly abandoned the idea of starting both van Persie and Huntelaar on the front. It seems likely that van Persie will be the lonely striker while Robben and Afellay will be on the wings. The combination of speed and technique of these two players is amazing and against a not so good disciplined defense of Denmark, I expect Netherlands to create some chances to score and comfortably win this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Netherlands ML @ -128 / 1.781 on Pinnacle


[edited by: andre gomes at 7:39 AM (GMT -7) on Sat, Jun 9 2012]

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping

Desertfire05
Joined: 09/30/2011
Posts: 410
All American
Not Ranked

I say 3-1 Netherlands. Dutch might be a bit suspect on the counter but they should control the play and pressure the Danes all game.

andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 3731
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

First play for today, starts in 20 minutes:

Euro 2012 - Group C - Spain vs Italy

Some breaking news for this contest: Spain’s coach Del Bosque decided to not start Fernando Torres and Spain will play without using a single striker. Their formation will be a bizarre 4-6-0 in which Busquets, Alonso, Xavi, Iniesta, Silva and Fabregas will rotate, dominate the ball and look for some quick triangulations to penetrate and score.


It’s an odd system, but this is where Spain is amazingly good! With Fernando Torres, Spain would surely have a typical striker to capitalize their chances but: 1) Torres is in terrible form and 2) It would be easier for Italy to defend a classic striker rather than undersized quick paced midfielders.

On the other end there are some news about Italy as well: after their terrible defensive performances in some friendly matches, coach Prandelli will use a 3-5-2 formation that has been mooted. Its looks likely that De Rossi will be played at center back alongside Chiellini and Bonnuci, while Motta will be inserted in the midfield along with Pirlo, Marchisio and Giaccherini!
The problem with this team against Spain is that I don’t think they are defensively disciplined enough to defend Spain. To defeat Spain/Barcelona you have to put all your men behind the ball and be incredible disciplined on the rotations, something that Italy can’t perform this with their current role of players.

Cassano and Balloteli are the Italians forwards and both don't have the reputation of working hard on defense. Normally at their club, they are allowed to be passive upfront without too much responsibility. I can see both of them starting off well and pressing hard, but after 30 or so minutes they will “quit”.

Then, on the midfield we have Pirlo and Motta who don’t have any substantial speed or stamina. They are good players with the ball, but without it then struggle to make the right close outs. From the Italian 10 field players, 4 of them aren’t able to work hard on defense and against this Spanish team, this will be critical. I believe that even with an odd squad, Spain will have too much football for Italy today, they will control the ball possession, create some chances and eventually score one or more goals. Therefore, I'll take Spain to win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Spain ML @ -125 / 1.80 on Pinnacle


[edited by: Andre Gomes at 8:42 AM (GMT -7) on Sun, Jun 10 2012]

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping

CASEYWARD420
Joined: 01/31/2008
Posts: 12323
All Pro
Top 25 Contributor

Thanks Andre, Good Luck today.. Let's get this Spain game :)

MLB 10-8 CBB 48-33-5 CBB 1st Half 3-2 NBA 38-35 NHL 2-4 CFB BOWLS 9-9 NFL 37-26-2 CFL 38-42-3 NFL-X 22-16-1 MLB 64-47-3 WNBA 9-6 CBB 14-21 Tournament 7-11  NBA 10-8  2012 CFB 18-18-4 2011 NFL 13-16 Playoffs 4-4  NFLX 15-11 2011 WNBA 14-10 2011 NBA 11-7 2010/11 Playoffs 9-5-2 2011 CBB 16-9 2010/11 NFL 5-3 2010/11 Kentucky Derby winner 20-1 odds CFL 3-4 2010 NFL 23-20 2009 CFB 58-49-2 2009 CFB BOWLS 3-4 MLB 42-28-1 2009 (no play over -135) MLB 102-83-1 2008 NBA 68-54-1 2008 CBB 100-98-6 2008 CFB 88-71-2 2008 NFL 51-36-2 2008

andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 3731
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Really like the second game of the day:

Euro 2012 - Group C - Croatia vs Republic of Ireland

Croatia had an excellent team in 2008, but this version is far away from the quality displayed in the previous competition. 
They lost due to retirement their best defensive midfielder Niko Kovac who has never really been decently replaced and their best player Lukas Modric is now playing in a less offensive position in comparison with his former position: a pure playmaker behind the front line.


Modric isn’t a quick footed player and the Croatians as a team are very slow in possession and in keeping the ball for long periods, without looking to penetrate the opposition defense. This can hurt them against laid back teams because their pace isn’t strong so the opposing team will have time to positioning themselves. That’s why Croatia struggled so badly in the qualifying stage against Greece. In the two games against the Greeks, Croatia drew against them 0-0 and then lost by 0-2!
The problem is that Ireland with Trapatonni will assemble the same style used by Greece: they will lay back, give the ball possession to Croatia – they are completely confortable with that and they will make some counter moves. In my opinion, one of the weakness of Croatia is their slow footed defense, so Ireland will have some chances in counter moves.

I expect ths contest to be a tactical battle, in a low scoring game where Ireland is more confortable in this scenario. Therefore, I'll take the Irish side in a Double Dime Play and the Under in a Single Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Republic of Ireland (+0,5) @ -110 / 1.909 on Pinnacle
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2 Goals @ -103 / 1.971 on Pinnacle

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping

andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 3731
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Spain vs Italy was the best game of the tournament so far. Still wondering why in the hell Del Bosque keep giving Fernando Torres the nod at the striker position ahead of Fernando Llorente...Torres was Torres... he missed some great chances

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping

  • 59 Replies
  • 8 Subscribers
  • Posted11 months ago