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thanks lloyd thats what i figured.

bballjunkie

Lloyd....first of all I think I read on here that you're expecting an addition to the family! Congrats!! Allow me to pass along some of my father's sage advice after we had our first..."nice job. Now don't screw it up kid." such a wise man. I'm a very recreational gambler but do enjoy it and am interested in learning. Enjoy your posts. I have what is prob a dumb question(another bit of sage fatherly advice "kid...if anyone ever tries to tell you there are no dumb questions...lemme tell ya something. Most questions are dumb. Why? Cuz they're comin from stupid people." gotta love the old man! Anyway...my question is about baseball. What if you had a good idea a team was going to be terrible...the cubs or Astros for instance...before the start of the season. If you blindly bet against them all 162 games do you think you'd come out on the plus side? I know it would be moronic to blindly bet that many games and I understand if they're that bad that when you're betting against them you'd be betting -200+ a lot of nights, but I live in Chicago and knew the cubs were going to suck like Jenna Jamison...a lot and they'd be good at it. I know it would take too long to actually calculate, but what just wondering what you thought off the top of your head. Thanks and enjoy the new addition!!

Thanks for the words of wisdom, we are looking forward to it. 

I never want to give a definitive yes or no to a question I don't absolutely know the answer to, but my strong inclination would be no.  I don't think I've ever blindly backed a team for any length of time, but if you do (or fade) it needs to be for a reason that is not widely known.  If everyone knew the Cubs and Astros were going to suck, prices would be adjusted accordingly.  Now, if you knew that Philly was going to be bad while everyone else though they would be good, you may be onto something.  Also, this will only last for so long.  The market always catches up eventually. 

The thing to remember with information, if it is widely known, it's probably useless.  Everyone talks about revenge games, look ahead games, etc.  All of that stuff is already built into the line.  Where you gain some useful knowledge is reading beat writers for different teams.  Lines are made the day before for bases and hoops, and Sunday for football.  If Oklahoma lost 56-0 to Texas the year before, the linesmaker knows this when he sends his number out.  What he doesn't know is when the Austin Statesman goes to print in the wee hours on Monday, Texas' OC makes a comment about how wide open they need to make this game, and how much they have to stretch the field compared to their first few games of the season.  This is great information that could lean to an OVER bet because that info was not built into the line, nor has it influenced the line yet.

I don't remember if it was last year or the year before where something came out about an NBA team who was 0-28 or something ATS when Danny Crawford called their games.  I remember people saying this was an auto-fade spot the next time Crawford did one of their games.  No, now that this is out in the mainstream media, Crawford knows it and he's going to be extra careful to not be biased, or even be a little biased towards that team. 

Lloyd, math question for you (and golf is posted....very sorry it was so late, this wasnt my intent!)

how do you calculate a teaser's true odds?  I understand how to calculate a parlay, but how is this done with a teaser?   for example....what are the true odds of a 3 team 6pt football teaser?  how about a 4 team 6pt teaser?

If its complex, dont worry about it, i was just curious, thanks friend!

Cant wait to cash in tomorrow with you in golf!!

JP, not difficult at all. Still looking over all the golf stuff so I will get to this tomorrow

JP, not difficult at all. Still looking over all the golf stuff so I will get to this tomorrow

sounds great lloyd, thanks....and the reason it took me so long, i was just a click away from Snedeker/Furyk +125 (2way) in that first match....but it almost looked like a hedge to me with the Euro wager....so i didnt make the click, just sharing while you look them over -- if you are around tomorrow morning, let me know, we can post together while enjoying the matches

If you have time this weekend lloyd, curious what the math looks like, thanks friend!

and if your weekend is busy, there is no rush for this question!

hope you're enjoying the golf!!

jonpistone2

If you have time this weekend lloyd, curious what the math looks like, thanks friend!

and if your weekend is busy, there is no rush for this question!

Sorry, Jon.  I forgot yesterday.  Saturday is absolutely the worst day for me.  I am basically watching lines and pricing props from 8am-9pm.  I'm up to 30 bets today, my brain hurts.

For your question, the first thing you need to do is find out how often a particular teaser changes the outcome of a wager.  For example, if a Wong teaser changed the outcome 25% of the time, you would know that leg of the teaser has a 75% win rate (assuming 50/50 for unteased spread). 

So if you have 3 basic strategy legs for a teaser and each hits 75%, you multiply  75 x .75 x .75 which equals 42.19%.

 100/237= .4219.  So the true value of a BS teaser that all hit 75% would be +137.  Obvious why +180 has value in this situation.  Every BS teaser besides road favs have better than a breakeven win rate for -110 2 teamers, although they all aren't 75%.  I believe home favs are the only 75%  subset. 

how does 6 point teaser work. thahks