Exactly Lloyd. I was speaking from personal experience; I got caught up more than once trying to "take the lead."
Also, and I am going off the cuff here because I just thought of this but I never factored in the "blown middle attempt" when I was parroting back that I am getting 20 to 1 on about a 10 to 1 proposition (NFL 3). So while I was theoretically getting 20 to 1 every time I executed a middle, what did it cost me in aggregate when I had to abort. Didn't happen often because I have never been a high volume middle player but it did happen.
It is difficult for me to follow the smaller markets this time of year because baseball is so labor-intensive but perhaps I should start just straight trading, like with the Winnepeg/BC 2H total you mentioned. I don't have to fundamentally know anything about those squads to execute that middle.
Thanks for dropping some knowledge.
"I mean really, I don't see why you people just can't watch the horses run around the track and not bet on them."
Great thread Lloyd.
2012-2013 NBA: 49-26-1
2012-2013 NBA Totals: 4-1
2011-2012 NBA: 282-233-9
2011-2012 NBA Totals: 148-110-4
2010-2011 NBA: 93-79-3
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs: 58-47-2
2013 MLB: 2-4
2012 MLB: 66-75-2
2012 MLB Totals: 11-12-2
2011 MLB: 251-205-18
2011 MLB Totals: 178-161-17
2011-2012 NFL: 95-74-2
2011-2012 NFL Totals 47-39-1
2011-2012 NFL MNF 8-6
2012-2013 NFL 8-12
2012-2013 NFL Totals 4-2
2011-2012 CFB 58-75-1
2011-2012 CFB Totals 34-30
2012-2013 CFB 27-24-0
2012-2013 CFB Totals 8-11
2011-2012 NHL 8-5-1
2011-2012 NHL Totals 4-2-1
2011-2012 CBB 200-178-7
2012-2013 CBB 31-21
Overall record: 1144-1003-39
A man is sitting at home on the veranda with his wife and he says, "I love you." She asks, "Is that you or the beer talking?" He replies, "It's me.............. talking to the beer."
"The only sure thing about luck is that it will change." - Bret Harte
"I am my own source." - Mike Hook
I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!
Following small markets isn't difficult. Just keep SBR's live odds and Pregame lines open and check periodically. Line services are obviously better because they can give you audio updates when the lines move, but if you're not betting enough then the line service isn't worth it
You want a handicapping tip? Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more. I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice
"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"
RTG Great thread Lloyd.
Thanks
Will do Lloyd. Thanks. SBR used to have an audio "bing" when a line moved but they got rid of it for some reason.
Lloyd, I have a question. I am considering betting the Derby, and I would like to know what you think. I like 3 of the 8. I may place a small bet on each since they are all +300 on up. The worst case scenario would be breaking even if none of them win, but you will have nearly a 50% chance to win. If one does win, then you would have a nice payout. I normally play Sides or Totals, and was comtemplating this strategy. Any thoughts?
RTG Lloyd, I have a question. I am considering betting the Derby, and I would like to know what you think. I like 3 of the 8. I may place a small bet on each since they are all +300 on up. The worst case scenario would be breaking even if none of them win, but you will have nearly a 50% chance to win. If one does win, then you would have a nice payout. I normally play Sides or Totals, and was comtemplating this strategy. Any thoughts?
If none of them win, how would you break even?
This may help. http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/
In the drop down in the upper left hand corner, click on "exclusive outcomes". Then put in what your expected win % are for each player, along with the price they are being offered at. This should give you a better idea as to how much you should put on each player.
You are correct Lloyd. Was trying to crunch these numbers, as I have never made a wager like this before. Appreciate your insight
Lloyd buddy, long time no talk. How ya been? Anyways I am working on creating some push charts, and I only have data from 00-10 and wondering if this will be valid. I am grouping the spreads by totals, and I am concerned that with all the helmet to helmet rules and what not my data might be off. Should I be worried? Also I plan on using spreads then calculating push percentages off that. Say spread is 2.5 and thinking about playing a teaser, I will look at 3,4, etc for this spread only. I know some people window but I am not sure of the reasoning behind this. I figure it will give more data but I think what I am doing will give more accurate results. Any help would be appreciated. I plan on returning to Kashyyyk at start of NFL season and if I don't have anything I will definately be back for CBB. Thanks
cptbigsack Lloyd buddy, long time no talk. How ya been? Anyways I am working on creating some push charts, and I only have data from 00-10 and wondering if this will be valid. I am grouping the spreads by totals, and I am concerned that with all the helmet to helmet rules and what not my data might be off. Should I be worried? I have not heard any real talk concerning the helmet rules and how they have affected data mining. Don't have a good answer for you there. Also I plan on using spreads then calculating push percentages off that. Say spread is 2.5 and thinking about playing a teaser, I will look at 3,4, etc for this spread only. I know some people window but I am not sure of the reasoning behind this. I figure it will give more data but I think what I am doing will give more accurate results. Yes, that is the exact reason that people window, is for more data. I'm sure it's buried in one of the Wong, Feustal, Yao books regarding how much windowing reduced the accuracy of your results, I can't remember though. Any help would be appreciated. I plan on returning to Kashyyyk at start of NFL season and if I don't have anything I will definately be back for CBB. Thanks I'm not sure what your K word means.
Lloyd buddy, long time no talk. How ya been? Anyways I am working on creating some push charts, and I only have data from 00-10 and wondering if this will be valid. I am grouping the spreads by totals, and I am concerned that with all the helmet to helmet rules and what not my data might be off. Should I be worried?
I have not heard any real talk concerning the helmet rules and how they have affected data mining. Don't have a good answer for you there.
Also I plan on using spreads then calculating push percentages off that. Say spread is 2.5 and thinking about playing a teaser, I will look at 3,4, etc for this spread only. I know some people window but I am not sure of the reasoning behind this. I figure it will give more data but I think what I am doing will give more accurate results.
Yes, that is the exact reason that people window, is for more data. I'm sure it's buried in one of the Wong, Feustal, Yao books regarding how much windowing reduced the accuracy of your results, I can't remember though.
Any help would be appreciated. I plan on returning to Kashyyyk at start of NFL season and if I don't have anything I will definately be back for CBB. Thanks
I'm not sure what your K word means.
Ha sorry man, not many good answers this time