We are back in action this week and fired up about it! I took last week off for the WGC Match Play, not that I don’t enjoy the event, but I just don’t bet it. It becomes honestly a whole different game which makes it difficult to cap. Tanihara over Spieth in Austin, Soren took out Rory, and the “match play” master Pat Reed was out before the weekend. I mean come on…anyone who is giving out picks on that event is simply throwing darts. We are back to a traditional stroke play format in the final tune-up before Augusta.
The Shell Houston Open is unique in that it provides different circumstances for different players which must be accounted for. For some, it is simply a warmup round for the Master’s and will be played as such, for others it is their last ditch effort to gain entry into the coveted pinnacle of golf. The course setup isn’t overly difficult although pretty long, and the winner typically comes in between 15 and 20 under par. They have tried to setup the course as close to Augusta as possible in order to lure more players into the event, but let’s be honest, besides the yardage and par 72 they play vastly different.
The greens are large and a premium is definitely placed on hitting them in regulation. The collection areas surrounding them make it tough to scramble. Historically, a hot putter, especially in terms of long range lag putting, have played a major role in the outcome. Par 5 scoring has also been a key indicator of success. Wind has also played a role in this event in years past and must always be accounted for in Texas tournaments in general. Finally, this tournament has had a history of longshots taking home the trophy (Herman 400/1, Jones 125/1, Points 250/1) so we will look to snag a few dark horses based on stats analysis and current form. Here we go gang!
Rahm over Spieth EV – For obvious reasons, Spieth has one thing on his mind this week and I can promise you it isn’t winning the Houston Open. He flew to Augusta last weekend to get some extra work in. Not to say he won’t play well this week, but the Spanish freight train is barreling down the tracks right now. Rahm tops my charts for stats analysis this week, and even though he hasn’t played here before, the course sets up beautifully for his game. If he wins this week if would hardly be a surprise, but I especially like him in this head to head with Jordan.
List over Swafford -115 – List is in good form coming off a T27 here last year. He is also ranked in the top 5 in par 5 scoring and should be able to make plenty of birdies on them this week. While the putter always worries me with LL, Swafford hasn’t exactly been rolling it well either. He has missed back to back cuts at this event and his scores have been all over the place this year. He has a win and a top 10, but also the MC’s in his last 5 events. List makes the weekend and that should be enough here.
DeChambeau over Bradley +140 – I will admit, I am going out on a bit of a skinny limb on this one. That said, with all the attention on Match Play last week, Bryson’s charge into a 2nd place finish may have been a bit overlooked. Granted the field was weak, but that may have been just the medicine he needed. The putt to tie for the lead on 18 showed me a lot and I think it gives him a ton of confidence heading into this week and…dare I say it, Augusta. Keegan has good history at this event and while I do have him ranked higher in my power rankings, catching +140 on a trending up Bryson was too much to pass up. He crushed the par 5’s last week and the SMU alum should be familiar with course conditions even though this is his first time playing the Shell.
Uihlein over Vegas +130 – Aren’t familiar with Peter Uihlein? That will soon change. Finished top 5 last week in Puerto Rico. He was an accomplished college player and appears to be poised to become a regular on the PGA Tour. He hits a lot of greens and should be familiar with the layout and course conditions after playing his college golf at Oklahoma St. Johnny Vegas has had a decent run lately, but just hasn’t been able to take his game to the next level throughout his career. He tends to spray his drives which could lead to a lot of water this week. Uihlein has the talent advantage in my opinion and is worth a flier at +130 as I don’t see him getting such favorable betting matchups in the near future.
Spaun ov Harman -105 – I have been on Spaun a number of times this year and it has been a profitable venture. I know he is a “west-coaster”, but he has had a week off to get his game ready to play in this event. He is desperate to get into the Master’s and become an elite player which I love. I have him rated a good 10 spots higher than Harman in my rankings, and he is hungry. Let the kid eat! If his caddy can make sure he doesn’t try to go for broke too many times, he should run away with this one.
Winner Picks : Not going to touch the top dogs in this event. I like Rahm but wanted to see it at atleast 12/1 in order to warrant a play. Instead I am taking the following:
JB Holmes – 33/1
Jimmy Walker 50/1
Charley Hoffman 55-1
Charles Howell 55/1
Bud Cauley 150-1
Let’s crush!
JINKs Picks