Last week is going to be tough to top, matchup picks went 4-1 and we were all HADWINNERS on Sunday at 90-1 odds. It marked our 3rd outright winner pick of the season and we haven’t even gotten to Augusta yet. Those who followed should have a solid bankroll for the remainder of the season off that one! Matchup plays are now 8-1 last 2 weeks, and 23-10 on the season. All that said, the only thing that matters in this business is what you do next. We’re moving on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week in Orlando. Bay Hill is a much more traditional Florida track, and typically plays as the least difficult leg of the swing.
They recently widened up the fairways and the greens are much larger than at Copperhead and PGA National. That said, it looks like they ratcheted up the rough this year, so hitting the fairways will be key to success this week. The course also boasts some big-boy par 3’s. We are looking at players who score well on par 3’s over 200 yards as a key metric. Other key stats that have proven pivotal to success in the past few years are strokes gained putting and scrambling. It has been tougher than usual to isolate value given the matchups this week, so we are only taking 3. Without further adieu, here are our picks this week:
Schwartzel over Finau -110 : After dealing with an injury earlier this season, I have seen good form out of Charl the last 2 weeks. Quietly finished T6 last week at Copperhead and finished 38th in Mexico. The South African has shown he can win in Florida before. He doesn’t drive it great, but he is ranked first on tour in approach shots out of rough from 150-200 yards (a likely distance on most par 4’s at Bay Hill if you miss fairway). Finau has historically struggled to play well back to back weeks. Had he been a few shots closer going into last Sunday, he could have made a real run to win it. Bottom line, I just don’t trust Tony to make any putts outside 8 ft.
Laird over Koepka -105: Hopefully not going back to the well too many times…but I’m fading Koepka once again. He has been in a free-fall down my power rankings this year, and the fact he’s even in a matchup play against Laird says a lot about his game. The Florida native somehow doesn’t play well in Florida historically. Now let’s talk about Marty! I have him in my top 5 this week based on the stats I have pegged. Great around the greens, and he won the API in 2011 which was the highlight of his career. Course knowledge also a plus as he returns for the 8th consecutive year.
Perez over Chappell -120: Odds likely skewed because of the 2nd place finish for Chapp last year, but that was when he playing the best golf of his career. This year he has failed to place better than 48th. Perez has outplayed him in every event this season thus far with the one exception being his first round WD in Phoenix. Pat checks all the boxes in terms of key stats, and ranks top 10 on tour in par 5 scoring this year. He hasn’t been shy about how much Arnie meant to him, and certainly wasn’t shy about dragging TW through the mud. He should be very motivated to play well given all the circumstances.
Outright Winner Picks: Fowler 16-1. I have him ranked 1st in stats analysis this week. Loves putting on Bermuda and loves playing “Mr. Palmer’s Tournament”. 1st on tour in scrambling and if he can continue to hit fairways, should have plenty of birdie opps.
Longshots: Kisner 66-1 and Perez 90-1 : Value plays based on the key metrics we were looking for this week. Have both ranked inside top 10 and should be around for the weekend. If they can get some putts to drop, all indications are that they could be on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.
Let’s Crush! #Winners
JINKS