Thanks to all who followed along last week as we dished out another outright winner and went 3-2 in matchup plays. We are coming to you live this week from Palm Beach Gardens, where we will personally be in attendance at the Honda Classic. Enough already of the brutal weather that plagued the west coast swing and led to extensive delays, unpredictable conditions, and 36 hole Sundays. Cheers to 80 and sunny all weekend…hopefully.
The par 70 Champ Course has consistently played as one of the hardest on tour. Everyone loves to play up the impact of the Bear Trap, but in all honesty, 2 of those 3 holes are par 3’s that should be easy pars if you avoid the water. From year’s past, I’ve noticed the Par 4’s leading up to the trap often determine the winner (number 14 is very tough). Previous tournament experience is important, but keep in mind that a ton of the field lives within a few miles of PGA National and regularly tee’s it up on the Champ. Water comes into play on 16 holes and there are over 100 bunkers out there so Greens in Reg., ball striking, and strokes gained tee to green are my top indicators of success this week. Here we go!
Casey over Woodland -115 : Simply a power-rating play here with minimal juice. In terms of statistical indicators for success, they are pretty close but I have Paul rated a good 10 spots higher than Woodland. He has made 3 straight cuts with 2 finishes inside the top 12 here. Casey is also a much better putter. Scrambling and avoiding bogeys are also his strong suits which come into play as birdies are always tough to come by at the Champ Course.
Dufner over Molinari +105 : Duf always plays well after a long layoff. He hasn’t played on tour in over a month but he possesses the craftiness around the greens that will be required at PGA National. He also has a solid tournament history here and Molinari has only played this event twice (65th last year, and MC in 2015). I think the wrong player is the favorite in this matchup.
Horschel over O’Hair -115 : I’ll be honest, this play scares me a bit, but most of the best plays do. Billy has that "go for broke" attitude that can definitely get you into trouble at the Champ. That said, he loves FL courses and the native understands the Bermudagrass. An 8th place finish last year should give him good vibes heading into Thursday and he ranks 2nd on tour the season in Greens in Reg. Billy Ho FTW!
Kisner over Grace -110 : Grace is coming off a hectic travel schedule and a missed cut at this event last season. Kisner seems to have finally got his mental game under control and has 2 top 10’s so far in the season. I have him ranked 2nd on tour in strokes gained tee to green. He has squeaked by the cut line the last 2 years but should have better course knowledge this time around. That combined with current form calls for a play on Kisner this week.
Scott over Fowler -140 : Yes I know, that’s a hefty price. The juice is worth the squeeze on this play. Scott played very well last week and he loves tearing up the Florida swing. The defending champ seemingly hit every green last year and has finished 1st and 12th the last two times playing the Honda. Rickie is a great player, but I always feel his overall popularity inflates his lines in these matchups. He too has a great history at the Honda, but Adam Scott is simply the best golfer on the course this week and everyone knows it.
Outright Winner : Russell Knox – 28/1 – best value on the board. Has finished in the top 3 for 2 of the last 3 years. Always plays well in high winds. If he can drop some putts, his name will be up there near the top and should make for a fun Sunday sweat at these odds.
Longshots I Like : Lingmerth 90-1 and Wes Bryan 120-1
Good luck and let’s keep crushing!