The PGA Tour makes its annual commute up the coast to Riviera this week. Picks went 2-1 last week and had JB Holmes not went 4 under in his last 8 holes at Pebble, we would have taken home another winner instead of a wash with Pat Reed. Bets were somewhat limited last week, as the format is just awkward and throwing a bunch of amatuer hacks into the field makes it even tougher to gauge. We are back with a traditional format at one of the players favorite stops on tour this week, and the field is quite loaded. Some of the key attributes we look for this week include driving distance, greens is regulation, and par 5 scoring based on recent history. Let's go!
DJ over Spieth -115 - Dustin's name has been consistently at the top of the boards in this event but is yet to take home the trophy. The course undoubtedly sets up perfect for his game. Jordan's form is as good as it has been, but I usually like to fade players coming off a win. Public perception is high and it's just extremely difficult to repeat on tour as history has proven time and time again. The par 5's at Riviera typically decide the winner in this event...advantage DJ. He also has the added motivation of the chance to become World #1 with a win, something he has been chasing for a long time.
Sergio ov Day +120 - The current world's #1 player had his best showing in month's last week. That said, his game just doesn't seem to be all there yet. I was surprised to see his putting let him down last week, and still just doesn't seem comfortable off the tee like he used to be. I see indecision between him and his caddy far too often. Sergio, in my opinion, may be in the best place as a golfer he has ever been. His life is in order, he seems to have gone from hated Spaniard to lovable character, plus he just ran away from a talented field in Dubai for the win. He has 2 top 5's in the past 5 years and I am all aboard this week. Does Sergio finally get the major this year??? I think The Claret Jug may finally see his name inscribed this season.
Pieters ov Hadwin - +110 - The powerful Belgian is poised for a breakout year. He was one of the breakout stars of the Ryder Cup and showed me a lot. Plays mostly on the Euro circuit but is slated to play more events over here this season. I actually threw a couple bones on him 90-1 to win this week. Pieters is a former NCAA individual Champion, and he won that event at.....you guessed it, Riviera. Hadwin has been playing great golf lately but I believe there is a vast discrepancy in talent here, and you are getting the more talented player at + money.
Leishman ov An -130 - Leishman is a bomber and a very underrated quality scrambler, which is a unique combo. Australians have had a great track record on the west coast and particularly on familiar Kikuyu grass courses. Riviera and Torrey are the only stops on tour with this type of grass on the fairways and rough I believe so that is in his favor. An has never played a professional event at Riviera and Leishman finished in 5th place last year. He is my horse for the course this week as it sets up for his game nicely and much the opposite for An.
Steele ov Haas -115 - We have rode Steeley to a couple matchup wins so far this year and I am keeping the train on the tracks. Bill Haas is a former champion and has great history at Riviera, but that said, he is coming off back to back missed cuts. Steele hasn't missed a cut all season and has finished inside the top 20 in 4 consecutive events. He also had a big advantage in distance which will suit him well. Not sure exactly where Haas stands in terms of form as he hasn't played in the last 3 tournaments, but I know where Steele has been lately and it's on the first 2 pages of leaderboards.
Outright Winner : DJ 8/1 - primed for his first win of the season this week. I honestly don't love the odds so only playing this small, but out of the top contenders he would be my pick to win this week.
Longshot Winners : In terms of value, I think all three of these are worth a few chips.
Steele 55/1 , Pieters 90/1 , Leishman 66/1
Let's make it 4 straight winning weeks! CRUSH.
JINK's Picks