Had a rough UFC 189 but bounced back nicely with the TUF 21 Finale. Look to keep that momentum going with another good night. Duffee vs Mir should be entertaining for as long as it lasts & even though there are some nice size dogs, there's definitely a lot of upset potential. The cards start at 7pm EST on Fight Pass & the rest of the card can be seen on Fox Sports 1 beginning at 8pm on Fox Sports 1.Check out my Twitter @MartinP_MMA for all info...
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Anyways, here's the free play.
7/15/2015 7:30PM EST
1 unit
Moneyline
(24442) Kevin Casey Even Money
Analysis: Despite being on Fight Pass this is one of the more interesting fights because Casey is coming off of his year long PED suspension. Usually coming off PED's would make me want to fade the guy but the truth is he is just too strong and good of a grappler for Alcantara. Alcantara's best chance is to keep this fight standing but his takedown defense isn't very good & once he's on his back he can easily be controlled. Casey starts fast & has gassed but Alcantara's cardio is equally as bad. I think this fight is a total mismatch with Casey getting a quick takedown & finishing Alcantara in the first round. Submission is very likely but Casey is just as likely to throw down some heavy GNP that'll force the ref to step in. Even if for some reason Casey can't get the finish then his wrestling will be good enough to grind out a victory. Alcantara is middle of the road at best & Casey will have a future as a decent Top 10 / Top 15 gatekeeper at 185. The UFC has had a habit of cutting guys after failing drug tests very early in their UFC career but I think Dana & the boys realize that Casey has vastly improved under Blackhouse & could be a very good commodity for the middleweight division. I like Casey enough to essentially add another unit on him since I already put him in a parlay when he was -105.
Prediction: "King" Kevin Casey by 1st round submission