After a frustrating event in Pebble Beach, I am more than happy to move on to this week. The PGA Tour takes us to Pacific Palisades, California for the Northern Trust Open played at The Riviera Country Club. The field is strong and they will be taking on a very challenging 7,328 yard Par 71. This course has a collection of very tough Par 4s which rank as some of the hardest on tour, while also boasting some of the most difficult greens to hit. With the winner averaging -11.25 under par over the last 4 years - you can see it’s pretty difficult to score here. Much unlike the birdie fest we came across at the AT&T, rounds in the 60's at Riviera will be very good. And if you are able to put together 4 of em - just chalk yourself up for at least a Top 10 right now. I had to go back 6 years to 2009 in order to find a year where four 69's wouldn't have gotten you a Top 10. I really shouldn't lose any bets where my players shoot 64-66 this week, or at least I hope not, ha.
Now this is absolutely a ball striker’s event, but as I sat down to pour over previous year’s results while trying to find an angle in, I noticed a trend. Dating back to 2006 each of the 8 winners, (Mickelson having won twice) with the lone exception being John Merrick in 2013, had at least a Top 15 inside the previous 4 editions of the Northern Trust (or Nissan Open as it was called prior to 2007). And all but 2 had that Top 15 or better result within two years. But each and every one of them had played this event the season prior to winning. That tells me that Course Form / Experience is key. When I used those two criteria for paring down the list of players, I was able to get to some very strong names. I really want to see how the market settles over the next day or so, but I did fire out 1 Outright Play where I thought the price was too good to let pass.
**Charl Schwartzel - 39/1 (5dimes) .5 unit**
-Charl fits the bill as a ball striker. He has only played enough rounds to qualify for being ranked statistically on the PGA Tour in the last 4 years, and every year he has finished inside the Top 25 on Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green (8th, 13th, T23rd, 16th). He also easily checks the Course Form / Experience box as he has finished 5th and T3 the past 2 years, which are the only 2 times he has teed it up in this event. In his 8 rounds at Riviera he has never shot over par, and has 7 rounds in the 60s. Charl has played in 3 events already this year, finishing 2nd in the South African Open & T9 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship. His mc during his last event in Qatar is a little worry some, but he is a Major winner who is coming off his first winless season since 2009; I'd expect he is looking to hoist a trophy early on in 2015. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it’s this week.
Now I really like Dustin Johnson and am strongly considering adding him at his current 12/1 price. Like I said before, I just want to give the market a little bit before making any further moves. I really love the 39/1 price on Charl and I don’t expect that to last… But perhaps DJ’s could move up a touch. Just going to monitor that for a little while.
Will be back soon if I fire on anything else.
-LinksPicks