Great work Links - congrats on a great start to the tournament - and thanks for lining our pockets with some cash from the bookies! :)
JoeD - You'll do well to follow along! And it's great to learn and ask questions too. I can't speak for Links thoughts on the Stefani pick, but I can share some of my analysis after reading the pick and deciding to tail it.
I know hindsight is 20/20, but sometimes it is good to analyse the winning picks as well as the losing picks. In this case, the first thing I'm looking at is the psychology. Overton starts with a -4 and he approaches R2 thinking 'if I can shoot another solid, average round like that, I'll be in contention for the weekend'. Stefani starts with a +3 and standing at the tee for R2 thinks 'I really need to shoot low today to get back into this tournament. I'm coming off 2 top 10's, I've been playing really well and I know I'm not 7 shots worse than my playing partner - so watch out!' Advantage Stefani.
Of course shooting an Ace during your round does hurt at all to lock in the victory too :)
Stefani was also a T10 play for Links, so after all the hard work pre-tournament, the expectation was that he would show something here and after a bad start in R1 that included a triple-bogey, no better time to improve than R2.
Lastly, at my book, Stefani was +115 (or 2.15 decimal odds where I'm from), so getting a nice underdog price on a matchup which seems to favour the dog anyway, I'm on it!
Good luck all with your bets this weekend!
- Damo