Well with football time just around the corner and as I finish up my preseason projections and power numbers I thought I would share with you my top 3 surprise teams of this season. But before we do just a recap of my college football season last year.
Last season I was 63-52 or 54.78% overall netting a profit of 16.5 units (1-3 unit plays) and my top rated plays (2&3*s) I went 20-14 or 58.82% for a profit of 10.7 units.
#3 most surprising team...Toledo Rockets
Toledo comes in on my board as the number 43rd rated team in college football this season. One thing I like to look at is my home field advantage number in my power ratings, and I have Toledo's as 2.80. This is one of the highest in the old non BCS schools. And I should let you know that I don't mean shocking like a lot of wins or a big bowl game I mean what we all care about and that is ATS. I see them as being very under valued and here is why. Coach Matt Campbell is in his 3rd season and coming off a 7-5 campaign. They return 7 offensive starters and 9 on the D. While they lose their stud RB and starting QB, they have a transfer from Alabama to take snaps this year in Phillip Ely and their back up RB Hunt from last year was solid as well with 886 yards (6.3 avg.) with 6 TDs. Also bring back their starting WR in Russell who averaged 12.3 yards a catch and racked up 1,778 yards with 6 TDs. Also their O-line is a huge strong suit even with losing the back-to-back all conference center. I see them being very solid and coming in with 8 wins but more importantly being under valued in the game against Missouri and Cincinnati and being a live dog in those games.
#2 most surprising team...Maryland Terrapins
Maryland comes in on my big board as the number 26th team overall in college football. My home team advantage for Maryland is 2.77. Last year after a hot start they ended up the season 7-6. Coach Randy Edsall return 8 offensive and 9 defensive starters from last season. This includes an up and coming star QB in CJ Brown. Last season he completed 58% of his passes for 2,242 yards with 13TDs and 7 INTS. I know that isn't that impressive but when you include that he ran for 772 rushing yards and throw in 12 rushing TDs, that puts him at 25 total TDs. They also bring back starting RB Brandon Ross who ran for 865 yards (4.7 avg.) and 4 TDs. They are a little young on the outside with Diggs (587 yards and 3 TD) & Long (489 yards & 1TD) but an experienced QB will help them grow. I see them coming in at 8-4, and with a new league I know it will be new venues and teams. But they will be new to everyone else and I only see them being completely over matched by Wisconsin. They will be overlooked a lot this year and you will be able to grab a lot of value.
My most surprising team...Kansas St Wildcats
K State comes in on my big board rated number 23 and has an home field advantage of 2.95. Living Legend Bill Snyder is in his 5 year on his come back tour and is one of the 5 best coaches in college football. He only returns 6 starters on offense and 5 on defense. But they key starter is back, or should I say starters Jake Waters and Tyler Lockett. Last season they didn't know if they were a running team with Daniel Sams or a passing team with Waters, well this year Sams is gone and it is all Waters team. Last year in a split role he threw for 2,469 yards completed 61% of his passes with 18 TDs and 9 INTs. While is isn't Sams he is more mobile than you think and ran for 6 TDs and 480 yards. Locket on the other hand is a true dual threat athlete. With a 26.5 avg. on kick returns and a pure deep threat averaging 15.6 yards a catch. He racked up 11 TDs and 1,262 yards receiving last year. I see a huge year for him and wouldn't be surprised if he makes it on an All-American team. With the unbalanced schedule in the Big 12, they play more road than home games, but in Snyder's last 5 years since he has came back he has pulled off 13 up sets straight up. The one thing I have learned about Bill Snyder, he doesn't rebuild he reloads. I see them going 9-3 and finishing #2 in the big 12.
That's all I have for this one, please let me know what you think. I will be posting a couple more in the days to come.