Very difficult game to cap with all the hula going on. All the media outlets, all cappers are on Florida State band wagon… and rightfully so. The Noles is the best team in the country on paper… Just 12 short months ago Notre Dame was the undefeated, unanimous # 1 team in the country, and also the best team in the country on paper. We all knew what happened to them
Here are the things I looked at and made some assumptions:
1) If Clemson played at their fullest potential and got whipped by Florida St 51-14… there is no need for further discussion. Florida St would whip Auburn as well. Fact is Clemson fumbled the ball on 2nd play giving FL St a quick TD and Tigers never recovered from it. I truly believe the Noles would beat them again but the Tigers would put up a great fight
2) Fl State is very consistent on both sides of the ball, a BIG plus on huge stage game. It has been a long long time to see a complete team like Florida State
* Great Passing game vs a porous Auburn secondary
* The most complete team Auburn has faced (along with Alabama)
3) So how good Florida State really is???
The Noles' has the best point differential in 2013 (also the best in CFB history I believe) but besides Clemson who Noles actually beat? We need to look at their performance vs decent teams:
* vs Boston College a power rushing team but mediocre at best
* vs Florida: A totally depleted (both offense & defense) Gators team with a 3rd string QB
* vs Miami: A talented but bad coaching team and it showed
In these 3 games Fl State WON with comfortable margin but they did give some hints on how good the Noles really are. Arizona/Missouri/and Louisville dominated these same 3 teams the exact way Florida St dominated them. I would have a hard time to believe FL St is that much better than Missouri
So many people (which moved the line up) based their picks on the facts of Florida St destroyed a good Clemson team in their own home (have you heard of Clemson pull another Dabo??) and Alabama lost to Oklahoma... they could not be more wrong in that assessment. At least once a year Clemson will lay DEAD and it could have happened vs Florida St, Alabama was so flat especially on the defense side and Oklahoma played a game of century. I bet you that QB T. Knight could not complete half of those completions in practice (without defense) let alone vs #4 pass defense of the Tide
Here are some misunderstanding facts about Florida State:
* J. Winston is not a great dual-threat QB, he managed only 193 rushing yards for 2.5 ypc
* Noles OL is not that great, allowed 29 sacks ranked # 86
* Noles running game is actually below average (relatively speaking) gaining 2.6 ypc vs Wake, 3.2 ypc vs Clemson, and 4 ypc vs Florida
* Noles running Defense is only above average (i.e. 4.4 ypc to BC, 4.5 to NC St) Boston College gave all Noles could handle
* Noles DL is only above average, vs a team like Auburn they will not have near that success, to apply pressure like they did vs other teams on their schedule
- Interceptions: 25 (6 vs Wake, 4 vs Idaho)
- Sacks: 33 (7 vs Idaho, only 1 vs Florida)
* Noles defense is VERY SUSCEPTIBLE to mis-direction, power rushing and QB option plays
Auburn edges:
* Have as much talents as Alabama, will give Noles OL and DL big troubles
* The best offensive minded in HC G. Malzahn
* DC Ellis Johnson, an elite defensive coach, will make the most out of their players to slow down Noles offense
* Auburn has been getting better every week. How good are they now with 5 weeks of prep (They did not settle on their offensive schemes until the 7th week.)
* The most talented and the best rushing attack (by far) the Noles could even imagine
* Huge under dog role
* A lot more battle tested than the Noles (what we saw in last 7 NCG)
Florida State edges:
* Experienced/played together a long time
* DC J. Pruitt was an Alabama defensive coach, and somewhat familiar with Malzahn schemes
* Great QB who can make all throws vs porous Auburn secondary
Conclusions:
The Noles will move the ball easily through the air, but OL needs to step up or J Winston will be running for his life and make a few mistakes that can decide the outcome
It's crazy for some people to believe Auburn won't be able to run on Florida State. Auburn put 300 rushing yards on Alabama and 545 yards on Mizzou. Auburn will run all over the Noles in this game
The game will be much closer than a lot of people think, and which team wins the Turn Over battle will win this game
Picks: Auburn +10.5 and some on ML