TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.

HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team’s home field.

BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.

POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.

To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:

Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:

Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.

CFB Vegas Rankings – Week 14 

 

 

Hm
  Field

TRUE
  Power

Bettor
  Bias

Spread
  Power

1

Alabama

5

100

2

102

2

Oregon

6

99

1

100

3

Texas A&M

4.5

93

0.5

93.5

4

Georgia

4

92

0.5

92.5

t5

Florida

4

90

0

90

t5

Florida State

4

90

0

90

t5

Kansas State

4.5

90

0

90

t5

LSU

5

90

0

90

t5

Oklahoma

5.5

90

0

90

t10

Notre Dame

4

89

1.5

90.5

t10

South Carolina

4.5

89

0.5

89.5

t10

Stanford

4.5

89

0

89

13

Oklahoma St

5

88

0

88

14

Clemson

5

86

0

86

15

Ohio State

5

85

1

86

16

UCLA

4

84

0

84

t17

Nebraska

4.5

83

0

83

t17

Oregon State

4.5

83

0

83

t19

Texas

4.5

82

0

82

t19

Utah State

3.5

82

0

82

t21

Michigan

4.5

81

0

81

t21

Syracuse

3

81

0

81

t21

USC

3

81

0

81

t21

Wisconsin

5.5

81

0

81

25

Boise State

4

80

0.5

80.5

Vegas Rankings voters include Chris Andrews (with over 30 years of Nevada bookmaking experience), and “Vegas Runner” (featured by ESPN, CBS This Morning, and CNBC for his professional betting success).

RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com (@RJinVegas)