Had a rough showing in the weekday games. Lets get it back this weekend.
TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
OKLAHOMA -21.5 over Baylor: The Baylor Bears have put up some huge offensive numbers this year, but this will be the best defense they have faced this year. Baylor has faced just 2 good defenses on the year (TCU & Iowa State) and they have been held to just 21 points in each game. In contrast, Baylor has scored 41+ points in their other 6 games this year. The Sooners have the defense to slow them down in this one. Defensively is where the Bears struggle mightily, allowing 527.3 ypg and 39.1 ypg on the year. Last week Baylor held a very weak Kansas offense to just 14 points, but they had allowed 52.3 ppg in their other 4 Big 12 games this year. The Sooner offense has been a bit inconsistent this year, but they have plenty of weapons and they have averaged 487.6 ypg and 39.5 ppg on the year. Oklahoma should be able to breakout with 50+ points in this one, while the Bears will be held to 21 points or less. This should be a blowout.
4 UNIT PLAY
AKRON -16 over UMass: I know you shouldn't as a bad team to win for you, but I feel this is the perfect spot to go against that theory. What a frustrating year it has been for Terry Bowden and his Zips and I feel they will take out all their frustrations out on this bad UMass squad. Despite their 1-9 record the Zipps offense has been very good, ranking 43rd overall (436.7 ypg) and 66th in points scored (27.6 ppg). The Zipp passing attack ranks first in the MAC and 14th in the nation (316.1 ypg) and should b able to have a big game vs this mediocre UMass pass defense that ranks 65th in the nation. The Zipp running game has not gotten untracked this year, but they should have a good game vs a UMass defense that ranks 123rd vs the run. A running game from Akron will only help open even more throwing lanes for their passing game. The Zips have struggled on defense, but UMass has one of the worst offenses in the nation. UMass has been outscored by 42 pg in their last 4 games overall and by 40.2 ppg on the road this year. Akron has been waiting for a chance to explode on someone and this is that chance. Both teams are bad, but Akron is worlds ahead on offense and should win this one by at least 3 TD's.
7 POINT POWER TEASER OF THE WEEK--- Notre Dame -12 & BYU -32.5
3 UNIT PLAYS
MISSISSIPPI -3 over Vanderbilt: The Rebels are off blowout loss at Georgia, but prior to that game they had won on the road vs Arkansas, blewout Auburn at home, lost by just 3 to Texas A&M and lost by 19 as 30 point dogs vs Alabama. This is a team that has been playing very well for much of the year as their 7-2 ATS mark would indicate. The Ole Miss offense has been very good this year, especially at home where they have averaged 483.4 ypg and 35.2 ppg on the year. A big part of the Ole Miss offense is their run game that has churned out 218 ypg and 5.2 ypc at home and that isn’t good news for a Vandy defense that has allowed 186 ypg and 4.7 ypc on the road this year. The Rebels pass the ball about 13 times less a game at home than they run it, but they have been very effective when they pass as they have averaged 264 ypg and 9.2 yards per attempt. While the Vandy defense has been solid this year they will have a hard time stopping this Rebel offense enough to give their own offense a chance for a win. That Vandy offense has been pretty good this year as they have averaged 25.4 ppg overall, but on the road they struggle to score, averaging just 18.8 ppg. Vandy is off BB blow out wins, but they were vs UMass and Kentucky, which is not impressive at all. Vandy did struggle at home with Auburn (won by 4) and lost Big to Georgia (45 points), while Ole Miss Beat Vandy by 21 at home and lost to Georgia by 27. Ole miss is the more impressive 5-4 team here and will show it by winning by at least a TD in this one.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
SYRACUSE +2 over Louisville: The Cardinals are a very phony 9-0 on the year. 5 of their wins have come in the final possession and if you take out the North Carolina game then their other 4 non- league wins have come vs team that are a combined 27 games below .500. In contrast to this Louisville's 4 non-league games so far have come vs teams with a combined record of 36-11. The Cardinals do have Teddy Bridgewater running their show, but this Syracuse defense is not that bad, ranking 39th in the nation vs the pass (209.1 ypg). The Cuse also have a solid QB in Ryan Nassib and he has helped them to the 20th ranked passing offense in the nation, with 306.8 ypg. Louisville allows just 189 ypg through the air, but have faced only one offense that can throw the ball as well as the Cuse can and that was North Carolina and in that game they allowed the Heels 363 yards through the air. They will have similar problems stopping the pass in this one. Yards per play tells a story here as well. Desptie the discrepancy in records the Cuse gain 5.9 ypp and allow just 5.5 ypp, while Louisville gains 6.3 ypp and allows 5.2 ypp. pretty even. Syracuse has 18 seniors on their roster, but 10 of those are starters and this is their final home game of the year. What better way to go out than by knocking Louisville from the ranks of the unbeaten, while at the same time helping you own cause by keeping those bowl hopes alive. Louisville have been lucky at times this year, but their luck runs out today. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- This is Taken from Marc Lawrence and it is a wild one. LOL. Play AGAINST any road team off a SUATS conference win from Game 10 out with a perfect record as a favorite or dog of 4 or less points against a foe that allows 24 or fewer PPG – provided they’ve won 20 or less of their previous 28 road games. Told ya it was wild, but teams in this spot are just 2-16 ATS since 1980.
Florida/ UL Lafayette Under 50.5: This Florida defense is awesome this year, allowing just 286.9 ypg and 12.1 ppg on the year. They have even better numbers in the Swamp, where they have allowed just 254.4 ypg and 7.6 ppg. No matter how good the Ragin Cajun offense is within the Sun Belt, they will not do damage vs this Gator squad in this one. On offense the Gators have put up just 23 total points in their last 2 games. Their offense has been inconsistent all year and now that they are finished with their SEC schedule I look for their offense to be a little vanilla for the next couple of weeks, before their big game vs Florida State. Even vs a bad Sun Belt defense I just don’t see the Gators putting up more than 35 points, while UL Lafayette will not reach double digits here. Look for the low 40’s at best here.
NORTH CAROLINA -7.5 over Georgia Tech: With the Heels on probation this season, you can bet that HC Larry Fedora will have them playing these final three games with reckless abandon as they can still lay claim to the ACC Coastal crown. They won’t be going to nearby Charlotte to take on either FSU or Clemson for all the conference marbles but they’ll still be able to hang the division championship banner from the rafters. The Tech offense is very good this year, but their defense is a big reason they stand at 4-5 on the year and it wont get any easier for them here vs a Heels squad that has averaged 487.8 ypg and 39.4 ppg. The Heels have been even more impressive at home, averaging 530.7 ypg and 49.2 ppg. The Tech defense has allowed 26.7 ppg on the road, so I don’t expect them to slow Carolina down here. The Jackets do score 27 ppg on the road, but they are just 1-2 away from home and will be facing a Heels defense that has allowed just 15 ppg on their home field this year. North Carolina had a week to prepare for the triple option and they have both the better offense and defense in this one. I expect them to win by 14+ here.
Michigan/ Northwestern Under 52.5: This Michigan Defense has been stellar this year, allowing more than 13 points just once in their last 7 games. At home the the Wolverines have allowed just 278.5 ypg and 12 ppg. Overall the Wolverines have avoided giving up to many big plays, allowing just 4.5 ypg, which is one of the best marks in the nation. The Northwestern defense has not been that overly great, but they have allowed just 22.3 ppg on the year and they haven't allowed the big play all that often, allowing just 5.2 yards per play. The Two defense will go up against a couple of primarily running teams. The Cats run the ball nearly 17 more times per game than they throw it and Michigan is has a pretty good run defense allowing just 143 ypc at 3.7 yards per pop. Michigan also runs the ball nearly 17 more times per game than they throw it and like Michigan the Cats have a good run defense, allowing 122.7 ypg at 3.6 ypc. All that running with small gains at a time should eat plenty of clock. Both defenses are solid and just don't allow too many big plays. They make you work your way down field and eat clock and that should keep this game in the 40's.
7 POINT TEASER--- TCU +14 & Nevada +10
7 POINT TEASER--- Washington/ Utah Under 54 & LSU/ Miss State Under 51
7 POINT TEASER--- Nevada +10 Washington/ Utah Under 54 (Added)
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Northwestern +10 over MICHIGAN
Tulane -2 over MEMPHIS
TCU +7 over Kansas State
1 UNIT PLAYS
TEXAS TECH -25.5 over Kansas
Oregon/ Cal Over 67.5
2 EXTRA POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (14-5-1 +10.3 UNITS)
PLAY AGAINST any college football road favorite with revenge off a win in which it allowed more than 30 points – if they allow more than 30 points per game and more than 4 yards per rush on the year. Teams in this spot are 1-19-2 ATS, since 1980. Play ON New Mexico +1 over Wyoming.
Play ON home favorites of 3.5 to 10 off an upset win as a dog vs an opponent off a SU win. Teams in this spot are 27-6 ATS since 1992. Play ON Nebraska -8 over Penn State