Saturday CFB Triple GOM (WINNER)

3* ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -21 (-120)

Last week I stated I saw "value" in a 20+ point favorite in K St. over KU and the rout was on as I predicted.  As hard as it is to use the word value in a favorite of this size (especially in a road conference game) I am going to state that there is a TON of value with the Crimson Tide coming off of a bye.  The Tigers come limping into this one with their starting QB out as well as their center which will not bode well against the best defense in the country hands down.  The numbers and statistics do not need to be mentioned but just for kicks Alabama is allowing 7 ppg including a shut out at Arkansas who also started a backup QB.  In that game Arkansas also committed 5 turnovers.  Missouri has had a not-so-warm welcome to the SEC thus far surrendering 31 and 41 points to South Carolina and Georgia respectively.  Well those teams arent in the same league as Alabama IMO and I can see AT LEAST that many being put up against them today and with no offense to keep it close that should be enough.

In a game like this I like to look at certain situational aspects to take the dog... first, home conference dog... well Missouri was at home last week against Vanderbilt and lost and was beat by 21 at home by Georgia in a game that was somewhat close but done in by turnovers (and that was with Franklin at QB)... second, look ahead spot for favorite... well Bama plays at UT next week which is hardly a game they need to look ahead to (if they were playing LSU next week I would beware of the look ahead)... and third, can the backdoor be in order... In Bama's games this year they have given up 21 points in second halves total which leads me to believe that even when up 50, they dont let teams just score on them.

I am going to buy the half point here to be safe, but I dont think we need it.. I see Missouri struggling big on offense and Bama cruising to a 48-10 win.