CFB Week Three Preview

So we're not off to the start we had hoped for, but we're not getting crushed either. A few adjustments in the thought process and we'll be fine. I know most people just want the winners without the rationale. Just sharing. Here's about two-thirds of the games with lines at the moment.

Rutgers-South Florida: I'd almost always look to to take the points, but that may be tough. The Bulls have revenge from a 20-17 OT loss in New Jersey last year, and Rutgers without Schiano has struggles with a weak Tulane squad and wasn't impressive against Howard. Of course South Florida had the great comeback win in Nevada, so because of the aforementioned the lines' probably shaded to the Bulls a bit too much. Typically we'd expect a defensive game here, and that total opening at 47 is begging for under money and that's where the early bets went. I'm not sure about that, since there's probably no shot for Rutgers to win a physical "grind it out" game on the road, so I do lean over a bit.

Washington State-UNLV: Clearly WSU is getting some "Mike Leach" love with this line on the road, even against UNLV. If Washington State cannot score in the second half (at all) against Eastern Washington (I know EWU is a good FCS team) the I simply cannot fathom laying those points. One thing that does strike me is the time of this game, which is 6:00 PM PST, meaning it will be quite warm. Perhaps WSU wilts a bit in the 2H. UNLV or nothing for me, and I can see a scenario where I'd take WSU 1H and UNLV 2H.

Navy-Penn State: Early money has driven this line down to Penn State -5.5, and I cannot say I agree with that. Even given that Navy has had two weeks to prepare since the pasting overseas, perhaps the emotion of that first game at home against Ohio is all gone now, and they can just play football. I would think that with the total creeping up that may favor the home team. Probably better games, but Navy really isn't very good, and Penn State played a decent UVA team pretty tough.

Umass-Michigan: Love these games where the line is 46 and the total is 56. Barring Michigan turnovers, they're telling you Umass isn't likely to score at all. Michigan has Notre Dame next week, so clearly they're not going to do what the COULD if they wanted to. But, if Umass can give up 37 to Uconn, then perhaps the Wolverines defense scores enough to cover and/or get to the total. I'd love to take those six or seven touchdowns, but Umass really isn't bettable IMO.

Boston College-Northwestern: I actually thought Maine would give BC a better game than they did, and had they I'd be all over Northwestern. I still might, because BC has to come home to play Clemson next week, which is clearly a look-ahead (if BC could have such a thing) for the Eagles. Northwestern beats a good Vanderbilt team in a very public game, and I'd think perhaps they'd letdown a bit, but because they got a relatively easy game (on paper) against South Dakota next week, I'm inclined to take the Wildcats here, and if I do it will be the ML. BC just doesn't have the defense (IMO) that they have had in previous years.

Eastern Michigan-Purdue: EMU looked terrible in their first road game against Ball State and then lose at home to and FCS school in Illinois State. Now, ISU isa  very good FCS school, but they were beaten pretty soundly, so it's going to have to be a lot of points to take them here. Three-plus touchdowns is quite tempting, but there's not look ahead for Purdue who played Notre Dame tough last week in South Bend. The total coming down to this point would tell me that either a) there is that much more value to 23.5 points, or b) EMU may not score much. I tend to think this is a pass.

Northern Illinois-Army: They say the biggest improvement is between week one and week two, and for Army's sake I hope so. This is only their second game after getting demolished by San Diego State,allowing a special teams touchdown and turned the ball over three times. Since UNI is used to defending these types of offenses I was a little surprised to see them only favored by three. Perhaps they're giving too much credit to the fact that service academy teams tend to not beat themselves. Clearly UNI has the better talent here and no real look-ahead as they play Kansas next week while Army travels to Wake and THAT may be the game to take Army.

Wake Forest at FSU: Well, clearly the line is big for this one and this is one game that FSU typically stumbles in. Yes, Wake beat North Carolina, but they allowed 428 yards and only converted on 4-13 third downs at home. Classic look-ahead spot for the Seminoles as they have Clemson coming in next week and have not played a meaningful game yet. Quite frankly because of that there's no chance of taking Florida State, but because it IS a conference game I do expect SOMEWHAT of an effort. Having said that and knowing that Wake will score later if not sooner, IMO this game goes over the posted total.

Connecticut at Maryland: Well, clearly the Huskies will be motivated to play against their former coach. I'm a little pissed for not taking the Terps last week against Temple, but because they won that game as a decided dog they're probably a bit over valued here, and of course the perception is that Uconn cannot score. It's Uconn's first road game and Maryland has West Virginia up next. A bunch of early money on Uconn has made them the road favorite, and probably for the aforementioned reasons. I'd be tempted to wait that one out, having missed the best number on Uconn, and perhaps take Maryland as a home dog. It's true that Uconn is playing against their former coach, but conversely their former coach knows them better than anyone. Terps or pass, probably.

Texas A & M-SMU: Classic perception game here in my opinion. The Aggies are obviously now and SEC team and lost a tight one to Florida, so they're going to get some point spread love. However, the emotional letdown of blowing a second half lead at home in that particular game cannot be over stated. Bear in mind that this in now only the Aggies second game, too. And SMU probably gets under valued here because of the public beating they took at the hands of Baylor. Give them a couple games to work in the new people, and you really have to like the Mustangs here, or at least I do.

V-Tech-Pittsburgh: I do know that the Panthers haven't looked very good on either side of the ball. Youngstown State is a good FCS school and that Cincinnati may be better than we gave them credit for, but I don't have a lot of confidence laying ten (or more) points on the road with Logan Thomas. Bottom line is that I don't like this game at all, but with a total of only 43 points at the moment, I'd have to take the points at home. It's a good thing there are more games.

Southern Cal-Stanford: A rematch of epic proportions here since Stanford beat SoCal in SoCal last year in Triple overtime, and with even with the cross country travel the Trojans have has this week, expect maximum effort here. Stanford is not as bad as people think, and has almost an SEC front seven. I do worry about their secondary, so I look for them to totally try and keep the ball away from USC. Impossible for me to lay more than a touchdown on the road, so it's the Cardinal or nothing here. I see the total opened at 60 and obviously I was sleeping because that would be an auto-under, IMO, and it's been bet down to 56. Even at that number, I would be surprised if it went over.

East Carolina-Southern Mississippi: The first thing you have to look at is that the Eagles have had two weeks to prepare since losing to Nebraska. However, ECU was probably made to look worse than they really are by the Gamecocks. I think the natural tendency for most people is to assume this game goes well over the total, but it's already come down a bit. ECU might be a but motivated after getting crushed by the Eagles at home last year, but for the Eagles they probably remember a one point loss at home to the Pirates TWO years ago just as much. Second of three straight tough road games for ECU, but I'd still have to take the points if you made me. ECU isn't a bad as SC made them look, but they may be over matched and simply outscored here.

Cal-Ohio State: I feel badly for the Bears having to play this game and then at USC next week. I'd love for them to get hammered here and for USC to beat Stanford so that USC will be in a letdown spot and giving up too many points NEXT week. OSU has simply done what they needed to do as is really resting (they've got UAB at home next week) until they have to travel to play Michigan State in a couple of weeks. Maynard IS capable of putting points on the board, so this game has back-door-cover all over it if Cal stays in the same time zone. Perhaps and Ohio State 1H and Cal 2H bet in this game.

Texas-Mississippi: The Longhorns haven't played anyone yet and this is their first road game. I suspect they'll want to beat an SEC team pretty badly, but wanting to and doing so are two different things, especially since they've got a far more important game at Oklahoma State next week. Aside from Ole Miss' season-ending game against Mississippi State, this may well be their biggest home game of the season, and it's a night game. The only possible play here is the home underdog, who may surprise here.

Arizona State at Missouri: The big question here is obviously how the Tigers react to the UGA loss, and Spartan would be better served to talk about that than me, but it's a very tough spot for them as they travel to South Carolina next week. They did lose as a ranked team at Arizona in OT last year, so there's obviously the revenge motivation, but they way ASU manhandled (an over rated) Illinois team, winning this game may not be that simple. Others may agree since this game opened at Missouri by more than a TD, and now sits at LESS than a TD at many sharp books. So, clearly the value of firing early on this one is all but gone. I still think it all gets back to the Missouri state of mind.

BYU-Utah: I'm not sure that Utah is as bad as Utah State made them look in the first half of that game, and I seriously doubt that Wittingham is going to allow anything less than a focused effort from the start. BYU has been dominant, but against Washington State that was trying to implement a new offense and against Weber State. However, they clearly will be motivated to avenge a 54-10 loss at HOME last year to the Utes. This should be one of the more entertaining games most won't watch. BECAUSE of the revenge angle and the Utes apparent lack of a real stout defense, and in spite of the fairly large trend downward in the total, that this game goes over. I could make a real strong argument either way on the side.

North Carolina-Louisville: Well, the Cardinals are no longer under the radar and are still a trendy team to bet on, so perhaps they're a touch over valued right now, especially since they really haven't beaten anyone yet this season, and North Carolina comes in off a game that most thought they'd win at Wake Forest. The fact that this line is "only" -3.5 almost tells me their begging for Louisville money and that it hasn't move tells me they may not be getting it, which in turn tells me that if you made me I'd take the Tar Heels, but my guess is that late line move will give this one away for those that don't already have a stronger opinion than me.

Virginia-Georgia Tech: Big revenge game for the Yellow Jackets having lost 24-21 at UVA last year, so without looking I'd lean to GT, but they do have a "bigger" game next week as Miami comes to Atlanta, and GT has revenge their as well because they lost in Miami last year. Not sure what to take away from Virginia beating Penn State last week, and they've got to travel to TCU next week. In truth, I think that line is pretty close to where it should be, and if GT is at all not focused for 60 minutes then UVA could hang with them based on their defense alone. 

Alabama-Arkansas: How much devaluing went on with the Hogs lost, or did they lose BECAUSE they were paying more attention to THIS game. Perhaps some of both, but for a line to open at 15 and quickly go to 20 is a bit much. This was already going to be Arkansas' season right here, and now it's even more so. Many thought they might contend for bigger things, and because those "bigger things" are all but off the table, this could be a dangerous team at home catching almost three touchdowns. However, we do know how Alabama is and because there are simply a ton of games to bet on I will probably just watch this one unfold. Although there will be a decided home field edge here, the games' NOT at night and that edge may not be as big as it would have been had Arkansas won last week.

Miami OH-Boise: I have learned rarely to fade Boise, as it's the "system" and the coaching that simply replaces parts year after year. And yes, they've had two weeks to prepare since the Michigan State game, but they've got a game only five days after this one against Brigham Young at home. So, the Broncos can probably name the score to this game, but there is little chance, given the scheduling situation, that I'd bet on that happening. 

TCU-Kansas: The Horned Frogs beat the crap out of Grambling in their season opener and now travel, untested, to play as a three touchdown road favorite. I do know that Kansas is not very good (pissed for not taking Rice last week, I knew better) but there is no way I could lay the points, and probably no way I could take them, although given the choice of the two the home underdog is usually the smarter bet. I was hoping to see a total lower than the 60 it opened at, because I can see Kansas putting up some garbage time points, but this is one that's probably better left alone, at least for me.

Rice-Louisiana Tech: Since this is only La Tech's second game and they travel to both Illinois and Virginia the next two games, I'd be careful laying three scores here. No, I do not think Rice is very good and take very little from them beating Kansas, BUT it was a road win nevertheless. However, it is La Tech's (now) first home game, and only home game until they play three straight in October. Houston did force them to play every bit of sixty minutes last week, so the second and/or third teamers got little or no playing time. Here, they might, which means we'd could see taking the Owls here. 

Western Michigan-Minnesota: The Gophers did not play all that badly in their "almost" loss at UNLV and beat a decent New Hampshire team soundly last week, so perhaps Jerry Kill has them turning a bit of a corner. Not one that's going to make them conference contenders anytime soon, but a team that has some value in certain situations, and this may be one of them. I was a little surprised at how easily Western Michigan handled Eastern Illinois, and that may well be why there's early money on WMU, but I tend to think that the sheer size and talent differential between these two teams make Minnesota a winner here, since there's not a giant conference game for them next week. If they're motivated, they'll score a ton, and 57 points may not be enough to stop me from betting the over.

Bowling Green-Toledo: After Bowling Green led everyone over the cliff last week, including those that bet the very best number, there's a part of me that want them to get crushed. However, from a betting standpoint that's exactly what they want you to do. They probably aren't as good as Florida made them look, nor as bad as Idaho made them look, but ehy do have a game at Virginia Tech next week and this is Toledo's first home game after playing Arizona tough and beating Wyoming. Since it seems like the planet has hopped on Bowling Green since the lines' gone form -6.5 to -3.5 very quickly, there's either an injury/suspension I don't know about, or I am ready to simply take the Toledo ML at a much better number.

UAB-South Carolina: Obviously this is another game the 'Cocks can name the score, but will they. I do not know the status of Shaw, but it didn't seem to matter much last week as the South Carolina defense forced five or six or seven turnovers and that was about all she wrote for ECU. I can see a similar scenario here, and even if Shaw is healthy they've got Missouri coming in next week for their first SEC game. Missoury, BTW, does have the type of offense that has typically given South Carolina issues in the past. Heads up there.  So, UAB has had two weeks to prepare for this game, so I can easily see them covering those five touchdowns in the backdoor if they don't turn it over.

Ohio-Marshall: The Bobcats are playing some good football, but is it good enough to be nearly a touchdown favorite on the road. Marshall has shown that they can put up some points, and this total was quickly bet up ten whole points form 56 to 66, or thereabouts. That's one thing I wish were different about the way we have premium plays. Do I release that at 56 early and when I can bet it, or wait for three books that clients may or may not have, and obviously what would have been a 3* at 56 is now not a sellable daily play. Or, do we release it at 56 and then buy it back with a 10+ point middle, which is what will happen to the line eventually. Moving on.

New Mexico-Texas Tech: New Mexico attempted exactly eight passes for a net of 32 yards (the entire game) against Texas, and that was playing from behind. So, you have to think that Texas Tech actually does blow them out here. The only downside to assuming that that will happen is that the Red Raiders travel to Iowa State next and they lost at home last year to ISU 41-7. One could easily say revenge, but that loss last year was fairly predictable since it was the week after they beat the Sooners. Certainly more attractive games on the board.

Florida-Tennessee: Well, is Florida the team that struggled to beat Bowling Green or the one that overcame a halftime deficit in a conference game on the road. I tend to think somewhere between the two, and that the game last week was probably a bit much for A & M to handle at this point from a "hype" standpoint. People are all over the Vols early, driving this from a PK to -3 in places. I tend to agree, because you're asking an unproven and perhaps less talented team to win two straight road conference games in a row. That's just not easy to do and Tennessee does not have a conference game next week. Then again, Florida always beats Tennessee. Clearly the Vols think they've got Florida this year, and I tend to agree that they do, however, those that look too easy often are not.