To all of those that were on board my TRU ALL ACCESS both on Thursday and Saturday in CFB. Profitable BOTH days, and we end Saturday night and Week 1 of CFB +7.2 UNITS, unless we play Monday's game.
I love my CFB, and my work shows that. It's why i've consistently shown the PROFIT that i have year after year in this sport.
2 things i want to share:
1. I'm going to post my work for today's CFB slate, just to show people that don't understand my TRU All Access package what it's all about.
2. I'm BACK in OTHER SPORTS. What made me change my mind? Well, i had a good meeting with RJ and Johnny, and there's no reason not to share everything i personally bet. Also, giving football teasers and having them as premiums, i don't see the difference between cashing those tickets and cashing tickets in MMA, Tennis, GOLF, WNBA, or CFL. I personally bet teasers too, as they can be highly profitable. We've seen Goodfella do it year after year, as well as others. Pregame has done so much transformation over teh years i've been here, and are pros are as transparent as any you can possibly find on the internet. I'm proud to be a part of that group, so i'm back to sharing all my work and personal wagers WITH YOU. So it's back on friends. I do the work anyway, so let's DO WORK.
Since this is a TRU ALL ACCESS, NORTHERN ILLINOIS +9 is a 1 UNIT BURIED TREASURE PLAY for today! This will serve as the HUB for all game previews for Saturday! Navy vs. Notre Dame....I admit, the fact that this game is being played overseas makes me want NOTHING to do with this game. I expect BOTH teams will be ready to play, as i respect the Notre Dame coaching staff, and anyone can tell you that i love my service academies and attention to detail. ND had revenge last year, and they certainly gave a whipping to Navy. So will Navy return the favor? Anytime you face the option, ideally you'd like to have as much time to prepare for it as possible. That's exactly what you have here with Notre Dame. This line has stayed pretty consistent, and it's because i feel this line is right where it should be. Factor in the travel and unfamiliarity, and it makes me want nothing to do with this early morning tilt. PASS. West Virginia vs. Marshall...Big Brother vs. Little Brother. Over the past 5 years here at pregame, i've always looked forward to this game. I almost always try to find a way to back Marshall in this series. I can assure you that you can throw all records out when these two teams play. Marshall always gets "up" for this game. BUT, and it's a huge BUT, this is the 1st game of the season. This isn't your old Mountaineers football team. Their head coach, he wants to score 100 points. Believe it or not, i actually have a slight lean to West Virginia here. This line is rather large for a game in this particular series, but it's completely warranted. A slight lean to West Virginia. Penn St. vs. Ohio...So, so many people are on the Ohio bandwagon for this game, for no other reason than they are auto fading Penn St. Quick, name 3 players on Ohio? I didn't think so. Be careful here. I've seen in each of the first 2 days of the season that people fall in love with a team that they really don't know much about, only to get scorched. I'm in the minority here, but i think Penn St. is an UNDERVALUED team heading into this game. This line has dropped 9 points since it opened in the off-season. Sure, despicable things have happened with the Nittany Lions, but at some point you have to wonder if the numbers don't favor them. I like Ohio personally, but i know their QB considers himself a gunslinger. Not to sure you really want that mentality when playing a still solid Penn St. defense in an environment that will most certainly be loud and emotional. A strong lean to Penn St. here. Syracuse vs. Northwestern...A very good game here, one that is flying under the radar. Big East vs. Big 10. Neither team is expected to challenge for a league title, but that doesn't mean this game won't be close. I'm actually surprised this total has come down, because i expect both teams to be able to score behind two fairly decent quarterbacks. Northwestern always plays well in season openers, and they are solid on the road. This game is a PK currently, with a few books at Syracuse -1. In other words, a close game is expected. I personally agree with that assessment. I happen to think the OVER is the best play of all here. The Cuse also hosts USC next week, so will they possibly be caught looking ahead? Hard to say considering this is the 1st game of the season. In a close game, i always go to special teams. Syracuse has a terrible punting unit but a great field goal kicker. Northwestern is s little shaky in the kicking department. No matter how hard i try to find a side to lean towards, i just can't. ONLY the OVER, but even this low number scares me. PASS. Oho St. vs. Miami of Ohio...I'm going out on a limb and saying Miami of Ohio covers this game. This line is certainly inflated because of Coach Meyer. Laying 25 points to a decent team with a world class QB is never easy, especially when overhauling an entire program. Expectations are sky high for this Ohio St. team, and i just don't expect them to fire on all cylinders in this game. And don't get me wrong, in order for the Buckeyes to cover this INFLATED spread, they are going to have to play really well. I just don't see that happening, especially if the field gets sloppy. The Buckeyes have a tough schedule after Miami of Ohio, so are they going to open the entire playbook right now? Again, i just don't see it. Zac Dysert is a star for Miami of Ohio, and he is more than capable of bring his team through the backdoor for a cover, if need be. I would only back Miami of Ohio here. I'm still considering this as a play in fact. Strong lean to Miami of Ohio. This team has played tough non conference schedules before, so they won't be that intimidated here. Illinois vs. Western Michigan...I like Western Michigan here. Yet another MAC game featuring a brilliant QB. The only thing not working in Western Michigan's favor here is this total coming down. That certainly favors Illinois. These teams are familiar with each other, as are the coaching staffs. At the end of the day, i see this as a 3-5 points game. With 9.5 points to play with, i see Western Michigan covering this spread thanks to another brilliant MAC QB. Illinois is simply average this year, at best, and i don't see them running away from a team that i think is better than they were last year when they gave Illinois all they could handle. A strong lean to Western Michigan. The only reason this isn't already a play is because of the WEATHER. The wetter it is, the better it is for the home favorite. It's unfortunate, as i would already have a double star on Western. Iowa St. vs. Tulsa...This game is expected to be close, which is exactly why this line opened at a PK. Currently Tulsa is a 2 point favorite here. It must be noted that this total has come down a full 5 points, which is alot. It's quite interesting to see this line move toward the team from the smaller conference, especially when the game isn't at home for Tulsa. So we either have a potential buy back off the -2 number, or oddsmakers are giving Tulsa that much love. Iowa St. is a good program, and they certainly have a QB who never says uncle. I leaned to the home team from the bigger conference UNTIL i saw who they are playing next week. The Cyclones face their in state rival, Iowa. I can't help but think part of camp was spent on Iowa as opposed to Tulsa. I have to pass here, especially because i DONT KNOW for certain that the buy back is coming on the home underdog. Pass. California vs. Nevada...I've got 2 things to say about this game. I lean to Nevada first of all. So why am i not taking them? Because of one of my best friends Sac Lawson. This guy flat out knows his COLLEGE SPORTS, period. He strongly feels that anytime Cal plays in the afternoon, that they have one of the best home field advantages in the country, and certainly on the West Coast. So while i believe Nevada is a far better team than most realize, and that this line is too high, i will pass out of respect to Sac Lawson. Nebraska vs. Southern Miss...I thought this line was high when it opened at -15. Now it's at -20, and it had me scratching my head. When i think of Southern Miss, i know what i'm getting. Or at least, i used too. Coaching changes have evolved this season, and opening up in Lincoln is a tough task for ANYONE. Nebraska is more than hungry, as they have plenty to prove to their coaches and fan base. This game is all about whether or not Southern Miss can stay close to Nebraska. With so much personnel change, i just don't see that happening. I believe this line was set high, and has only become higher, FOR A REASON. If it looks to good.......yeah, you know what i'm saying. I think this is a trap, which is funny to say against a higher profile team. I have to pass here, because i don't think Southern Miss can stop this Nebraska offense. I also don't think this Southern Miss group of players and coaches are ready to play from behind in a hostile environment. PASS. BC vs. Miami...It must be noted that BC won this game last year OUTRIGHT as a double digit underdog. In other words, BC won't be intimadated in the least by the Hurricanes here. Perhaps that's why this line is so low, or perhaps it's because BC is better this year. Either way, i know alot of bets are coming in on Miami, and the line won't move off that infamous -2.5 number. This is an actual league game, so i expect it to be a very close game. Speed vs. physicality, that's what this game comes down too. Perception vs. Reality. Miami will always have a cult following, but i know that there are NO expectations this year for this Hurricanes team. That tells me all i need to know. A lean to BC. Northern Illinois vs. Iowa...Northern Illinois +9 is a 1 UNIT BURIED TREASURE today! Colorado St. vs. Colorado...Oh how i wanted to take Colorado St here. This line is coming down ever so slightly. If i believe in Colorado St. just a little more, this would have been a Double Star. Much like Marshall vs. West Virginia, i always love to take Little Brother against Big Brother involving in-state schools. This is quite a RIVALRY, which means throw out EVERYTHING. Such is the case this year too. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see this game come down to a field goal. Ultimately, i know that the Rams are in for a down season in the MWC, and we already have 2 big plays today involving MWC schools in SDSU and Wyoming. If i could get +7, i would play Colorado St, and that's reall all i was waiting for. I don't see it coming, so i regretfully pass here. 2 other reasons why i pass on this game is the new coach for the Rams, and Jordan Webb. Within this Colorado offense AND playing in the Pac 12, Webb is the new Jacory Harris. In other words, STAY AWAY from betting games involving him. Just had to say it...... Georgia vs. Buffalo...Um, i have no need to even want to get involved with this game. Why not? I hate betting SEC games with huge spreads. I try to stay away from them as much as possible. First off, why bother trying to decide how many points Georgia really wants to score? Why bother trying to decide if Georgia is going to open up their playbook, or if they are looking to the weeks ahead. Buffalo is obviously outmatched, it take no genius to figure this out. The point i'm trying to make is simple. Know your strengths. Those 3 words might be the 3 most important words in this hole ALL ACCESS chat. Know the situations that make YOU profitable. I know mine, and i stick to them. This is a flat out pass for me. No way i bother with this game, especially in Week 1! Florida vs. Bowling Green...Few sides have moved as much as this game, as Florida has gone from a 23.5 favorite to the current line of 29. This is simply a pass for me. I don't like to take huge underdogs unless i feel they have the mental makeup to compete against their opponent in a tough environment. I don't believe BG has that makeup this season. Also, Florida is still working on their QB's, so i don't necessarily see a letup coming in this game either. That's the other key to this game that makes me have to stay away. With such a violent swing in the line, it's too late to take Florida, while i wouldn't dare take Bowling Green. Now against this Florida defense. Absolutely NO THANK YOU. Pass. Texas vs. Wyoming...We have a TRIPLE STAR on WYOMING +31.5 Houston vs. Texas St...Texas St, welcome to D1! In your first game you play a Houston team that would love nothing more than to win this game by 80 points. Especially when you factor in the Boise St. loss last night. Houston will simply not let up here. Props to Texas St on the move to the WAC, but i would NEVER back them in this spot, not against a team that loves to run it up and can score as many points as they want. I'm actually surprised this total is this low actually. That's the only thing that gave me pause here. Also, there is no chance of me laying 36 points in Week 1. A big fat PASS. Auburn vs. Clemson...One of the best games of the day. Is Auburn still overrated just because we see Cam Newton in the locker room on SportsCenter? I often wonder this. Anyways, Clemson is the slight road favorite here, and i find this significant. Ranked team vs. unranked team. How often we see the SEC as an underdog on a neutral field? Not very often! I tried backing Clemson here, just because i feel they have slightly LESS question marks than Auburn does. I also feel Clemson is a sleeper candidate in the BCS debate, but that topic is for another day. I feel Clemson is going to be a great PLAY ON team, i'm just not doing it in Week 1. A lean to Clemson, but ultimately passing here. USC vs. Hawaii...What does this game really come down to from an ATS angle? Everyone already knows how great USC is going to be this week. The simple question is this: Will Coach Kiffin run up the score on Coach Chow? They MORE THAN have the ability to do just that, but will they. I would usually say yes, because you can expect the unexpected when it comes to Lane Kiffin, which is PRECISELY why i have to stay away from this game. Absolutely, 100% no way i would ever touch this game, not even with YOUR bankroll. Alabama vs. Michigan...By far, the game of the day. First off, i have a lean to Michigan. I almost made them a DOUBLE STAR. I am CERTAIN this line is inflated. What i think is going unnoticed is the fact that Coach Hoke is the real deal. I have spoken with him and have seen his work first hand at San Diego St. He OWNS coaching the offensive and defensive lines. That will be apparent tonight in their game with BAMA. I typically don't get that excited for high profile games, as i love the "smaller" profile games. That's not the case here though. I will be rooting for Michigan, and i expect them to be in this game throughout. With BOTH teams having so much time to prepare for this one, i just see no way Alabama jumps out to a huge lead and blows this game open. A STRONG lean to Michigan here. Tulane vs. Rutgers...I tried to find a way to back Tulane here. If it weren't for the Hurricane, i might be on this side small. By taking Tulane, we are getting 20.5 of the expected 48 points. That's HUGE! Especially because i've seen Tulane play to the point where they have the ability to score. I do respect Rutgers as a program, but there are questions marks there as well. Clearly the making of this line tells us oddsmakers feel that Rutgers is going to very nearly pitch a shutout here. Tulane actually won this contest 2 years ago, 17-14, so Rutgers technically has the revenge here. 3 of Rutgers first 4 games are on the road, with today's game serving as the easiest of the bunch. Tulane will be emotional at home. I'm conflicted here quite a bit, but i still lean to the home underdog plus the points ever so slightly. UTEP vs. Oklahoma...A Top 5 ranked team on the road as nearly a 30 point favorite! Yeah, already sounds like a game to skip right? ABSOLUTELY! Why even bother here? Why even get involved with this game, where ANYTHING can happen from a 50 point blowout to a backdoor cover. Oklahoma has no look ahead here, so they have everything to go for here. I'm not a UTEP fan this year, and Coach Price is so cocky that i feel it works AGAINST him against ranked foes. I can't get involved here, not at any point in this game. Nothing but a pass for me. Only think i can say is this crowd will be loud, FOR BOTH TEAMS! Arizona vs. Toledo...We have a DOUBLE STAR on TOLEDO +11 Washington vs. San Diego St...Our GOW is SDSU +14.5 UAB vs. Troy...Interesting line movement here. Troy opened as a 3 point favorite, and the line has moved to 6.5. Why is 6.5 significant? Because it's oh so close to the key number of 7. This total has also moved, from 58 all the way up to 63.5 points. Clearly BOTH teams are going tos core here. UAB has a week off after this game, while Troy goes right into league play. I think this favors UAB quite a bit. In fact, i believe this factor is so strong that i have a lean to UAB here. I know this team can score, and they will tonight. I also know that Troy is a bit OVERRATED for what they have done in the past. But these 2 teams are far more equal than most realize. Combine these factors with the line movement, and i like UAB here. A lean to UAB. Duke vs. FIU...We have a DOUBLE STAR on FIU +2.5 LSU vs. North Texas...Can u say shutout? I always chuckle when i see a team favored by 44 against a total of 52 points. In other words, is North Texas going to score tonight? Not on the field anyway. That's too bad, because i have backed North Texas in specific spots in years past. Tonight is simply not one of those nights. If i were to make a play in this game, it would ONLY be to the UNDER. So many distractions with the Hurricane and LSU always has questions on offense. They also host Washington in their next game, so i don't see them opening up their whole playbook. UNDER is the only way to go here. Oregon vs. Arkansas St...What a difference a year makes. Last year, i loved backing Arkansas St. I know i'm not the only one either. Now we start this year, where they are getting 37 points against Oregon. If only this game were last year, we might see a bit of competitiveness. Not this year. A line that opened at 33 that is now 37.5. A total that opened at 63.5 that is now over 70. Think Oregon is going to score? Remember, Oregon knows that USC is playing Hawaii, which has blowout all but written all over it. What is Oregon going to do here? They can most certainly name their score here. I want nothing to do with this game. Props to Arkansas St. for coming to Eugene. I respect this program, and i hope they put up a good showing. I know that i'll be looking to back them after people see them get owned here tonight.
I am my own source. It's not a run when you do it over and over again with consistency and a mentality that you've done it before.
In nearly "5" years at pregame, if you COMBINED every SPORT SEASON together, i have turned a strong profit in EVERY SINGLE SPORT EXCEPT BASEBALL. Of all the things i've done here at pregame, this is EASILY what i'm most proud of. That's LONG TERM WINNING.
As always, thanks for that to continue to follow my work. Much, much appreciated
Oh yeah, and i have a WEBINAR that i'm hosting next week, and i'm going to start participating in pregame videos in that FANCY studio very soon. First video likely with VR as we talk the next UFC card.
I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!
Tough Mudder Countdown 2013
Wanna jump out of a plane at 15,000 feet? My 30th Bday gift to myself: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLt7QwmRDIU
what's up DA_Moss! I saw what you wrote my friend.
for those that read through all that or at least scrolled down to the bottom, here's a play i just wagered myself:
JEFF OVERTON +100 Greg Chalmers
GET that "other sports" MONEY!!!!!! Like takin candy from a baby!!!
"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"
Here's some Monday HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS. Anything in BOLD, just assume it's 1 UNIT unless otherwise specified. This will include GOLF, WNBA, and MMA. Again, BOLD unless otherwise specified.
HUNTER MAHAN +120 Bo Van Pelt
JEFF OVERTON +115 Ryan Moore
great work Mike, I was on several of these dogs myself. lsu and usc over 40 points was an automatic dog play for me in week 1. my gow was niu +9.5, the boys were unlucky not to win this one upright.
keep up the great work.
thanks so4. I too was on NIU, but just 1 unit. Watching that game, it makes me realize it's the program that is so solid, not just a coach and a QB. They should have won that won outright, just like you said. Nice hit, and looking to see what you have for Week 2 bro. All the best.
You the man Mike....respect!
Records: Since September 2012:
Total: 480-371 +173.4 units (56.0%)
12-13 NBA: 162-123 +80.4 units (57%)
12-13 CBB: 90-66 +52.20 units (57.6%)
2012 NFL: 115-75 +69.1 units (60.0%)
2012 CFB: 108-105 -34.1 Units (50.7%)
2013 NHL: 2-1 +2.25 units (66.3%)
UFC: 3-1 +3.55 units (75%)
Updated through 02-20-13
Tampa Bay Bucs Season Wins O6 (WINNER)
Toronto Raptors Season Wins O33
LAC Season Season Wins O49 (soon to be WINNER)
All 2nd Half plays posted on Twitter first: @jbachmann80 (a ton of money to be made in CBB/NBA coming up with 2H plays)