CFB Week One Games

I've already put out my "next Thursday" thoughts so here's the "first Saturday" possibilities. I really want to see the totals before I do anything too serious (like actually bet/post a premium play) because this early there is often more value in totals than sides, or at least that's been my experience. I have some pretty strong week 1 NFL leans at the moment, and subscribers can expect the "you've got mail" thing to start fairly soon. Anyhow.......

Marshall-WVU: The fact that there's conference changes going on and WVU has "stuff to prove" has little bearing on my thought on this game. And although we are typically all over the underdog in these rivalry games, not this time. Last years' debacle has everything to do with WVU wanting to pound the Herd into submission. It was an ESPN night game, with tons of lightning and weather delays. Dangerous stuff, actually, and the Herd AD refused to allow the game to simply be called early, even though they had zero shot of winning.

Ohio-Penn State: As of now I want nothing to do with this game. We do not need to try and be sharp to figure out these "marquee" (if you will) games to make money. 

Northwestern at Syracuse: I'm not sure how a team can lose Persa (yes, I get that Colter may be good, but they have zero depth) and only bring back five defensive starters from such a porous "D" and be favored on the road against too many people, especially given that they've got four straight home games the next four weeks. They don't play a top team until late October when Nebraska come to town, so at some point (at Minnesota, probably) they will clearly be over valued. I have to think Syracuse is in play here, and perhaps that early total of 55 I saw somewhere may be a bit too high. I don't normally tease CFB, but getting +7.5 with the Orange may be doable, too.

Miami (OH) at Ohio State: I'll leave the MAC for Bryan, but I doubt I'd lay three touchdowns. Then again, Urban may want to make a  statement if he can. The Buckeyes basically play soft and at home the first four weeks (UCF has their own issues, and yeah, Cal (sorry Dan) CAN be a tough opponent and OSU probably will be favored by too many in that one), so they're tuning up until they play game five AT Michigan State, and as of right now I say they lose that one just based on MSU having had played Boise and ND by then. So, pass this game to Mr. Leonard.

Western Michigan at Illinois: Yes, Nate Scheelhaase is back but Illinois loses their A.J. Jenkins (84 catches) to the 49ers (the one in San Francisco) and leading rusher Jason Ford to the Steelers. So, if you think I am going to take a team to cover two scores than only averaged 22 points a game last year against a team that almost beat them last year, there's no chance. Not when they've got to play at Arizona State the following week. 

Tulsa at Iowa State: I see someone's already started some good talk about this game. I'm not sure the QB battle between Jantz and Barnett is a good thing, at least not in mediocre programs, for ISU. Yes, I hate that Kinne is gone, but without him it might be hard to think that Tulsa continues they're ATS road streak, as they've covered nine of the last ten true road game, or something along those lines. I would expect the posted total to be a bit high, perhaps, only because I do think Klein and Knott will make a difference. Yes, they gave up an assload of points, but let's not forget who and where they had to play. The Minnesota Vikings might have given up that many.

I have more work to do, but this will give you something to ponder (not Christian) and I do believe that Gill and I are going to do the Guessing Lines show again this year. I suppose I should do the indirect "get Dave's Football package" and get the "rest of the story". No, wait, that was Paul Harvey. Be back later.