Forums

Forums
Where sports bettors talk!

2012 College Football Futures: 3 BIG-XII Plays

CFB
Thread Starter 2012 College Football Futures: 3 BIG-XII Plays
Stevebeav
Joined: 10/09/2007
Posts: 6206
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

A few more futures plays that are just too good to pass on

2012 BIG XII TITLE FUTURES (2)
2012 BIG XII WIN TOTAL FUTURES (1)

This may look a bit odd, yet hear me out
Playing a DOUBLE TITLE Futures,
Assured to lose ¼ UNIT w/one of these two

The basis for these plays has as much to do w/Heavy Favorite
Oklahoma’s vulnerabilities
As much as all the the strong points that
Texas & West Virginia bring to 2012 Big XII Conference Race

As we know, OU had rough offseason & equally cruel start to 2012 Camp:

FOUR KEY OU Projected Starters’ lost or will miss multiple games
RIGHT SIDE of Oklahoma’s Receiver Corps is still largely unknown 
HEISMAN CANDIDATE, OU Sr QB LANDRY JONES’
#1 Target, Kenny Sills remains only genuine certainty for Sooner pass attack

OU WR Jaz Reynolds season is still in partially in question
(as Reynolds’ backup & OU's 2011 Kick Return 'burner' Jr WR Franks)

OU’s 2011 Zone-Stretching, Deep-Strike attack 
Was supported (by-&-large) w/Jones-to-Reynolds connection 
(41 hookups Last Season; averaging almost 18 Yards/Catch)

Aside from #1 Sooner 2011 WR Stills
OU’s vaunted passing attack is in the hands of
     (1) OU 6-2 | 198 WR True Freshman Troy Metoyer
     (2) OU Untested TE Corps

(OU brings back ZERO 2011 Returning Scholarship TE)

We should acknowldge,
Stoops reinstated BOTH WR Reynolds & WR|KR Franks
Yet, both will miss unspecified number of ‘GAMES’ according to Stoops

OU’s Offense is still good enough to light it up
Very good rushing attack,
w/ Second-Team, Big-XII RB D Whatley

Yet, OU now has pressing concerns in a presumed rock-solid O-LINE
40% of OU’s Highly Experienced O-Line has been lost for the season
OU was #7 in FBS in Returning O-Line Game Starts
Offense OU’s 102 Ret. Gm Starts is “OFS”
Sr Starting CENTER Habern (Neck)
Sr Starting RG Evans (Knee)
Habern & Evans logged 43 of those 102 Game Starts
OU’s No. 2 LT, Dismuke (Knee) has also been lost for the year

Oklahoma plugs in capable, yet far less decorated replacements
However, OU's ‘5TH BEST OL” (Steele) now quite thinned, & not nearly as experienced

Simply put, OU will rely on a very good running game, as much as ever &
OU’s QB Jones may be more hurried than last yr (4TH Least Sacked)

OU’s Defense is quite good
Sooners return #1 & #3 Tacklers (Colvin & Jefferson)
Yet, hold the ol' confounding distinction leading OU in tackling from Secondary

Sooners Front-7 should be very good
OU is more experienced on DL (all 4 DL are Sr’s) than any team in FBS

Still believe Oklahoma, even w/favorable schedule
Has ever-growing, significant shortcomings than so many want to believe

Not for nothing, yet 6 suspensions & ‘issues’ (academics, ect)
Are proof-positive that Stoops’ ‘leisure’ stylistics will continue &
Such problems may be par for the course in Norman, now & in future

¼ UNIT | FUTURE WINS
OKLAHOMA UNDER 10½ (-160 | sportsbook.au)

Agree w/Phil Steele’s assessment:
     #1 Surprise 2012 Team of 2012: TEXAS
     #3 Surprise 2012 Team of 2012: WEST VIRGINIA

Talk about your favorable schedules…
Texas Longhorns have the table set for a damn clean Big-XII Title Run
Horns play OU in Dallas as always
Texas plays WVU, TCU in Austin

We might be reminded that Texas HC Mack Brown
Led this program to the 2ND Best Seven Years Run in CFB (04-09)
TEXAS was 69-9 Overall, 50-8 Big-XII
The Horns are truly primed to get back to that sort of run

Speaking of O-Line & D-Line
TX brings #1 Rated OL & DL Units into 2012 Season (Steele)

Horns do not show up at ALL on ‘College Football Injury Report’
TEXAS lost their top 2 Tacklers from 2011 Season
YET, Tx also returns 7 of their TOP 10 Tacklers
FROM the BIG-XII’s #1 OVERALL 2011 DEFENSE

¼ UNIT | FUTURES | BIG XII TITLE WINNER
TEXAS 2012 BIG XII CHAMPION (+500 | 5-Dimes)

If Texas falters,
Really like WVU as a BIG Darkhorse
Mounties’ are ideally suited for Year-1 on BIG-XII
West Virginia has 3RD most Sr’s in their 2-Deep in FBS (17)
WVU ALSO has do not show up at ALL on ‘College Football Injury Report’
WVU’s Heisman Candidate QB, Gino Smith
Has luxury of pocket protection from the 2ND Most Experienced OL Unit in FBS
WVU returns an unthinkable 105 OL Game starts
WVU also returns 92% of their Big-East Leading (470 Yd) Offense

As we know, WVU overwhelmed Clemson in 2011-2012 Orange Bowl, 70-33
West Virginia has every opportunity to continue where they left off, as
Mounties don’t play Road Game till Oct 6, though game is in Austin, TX)

WINNER of October 6, 2012 WVU at Texas Game
Could very possibly be in drivers’ seat to Win BIG-XII

¼ UNIT | FUTURES | BIG XII TITLE WINNER
WEST VIRGINIA | BIG XII CHAMPION (+550 | Bet-365)

All the best, guys.

Way-Out-West, LLC ™ | INVIGORATING SPORTS ANALYSIS | stevebeav.blogspot.com | #Stevebeav
"Winning is determined by ones appropriate response to Losing" | Sleep? Overrated
BEAVER NATION: Powered by Orange | Overachieving Since 1868 | "Great Day to be a Beaver"

DaRoots
Joined: 12/28/2009
Posts: 409
All American
Not Ranked

Texas Tech under 6.5 wins (5dimes) is my Big XII future bet.  I'm a Tech grad and as you can see, I have a lot of confidence in our team this year.  Good luck!

Stevebeav
Joined: 10/09/2007
Posts: 6206
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

Interesting play; Tech Under 6½
Raiders definitely fell flat on their faces last year
w/the Tom-T DEFENSIVE disaster/experiment
(adopting a TCU-Brand, 4-2-5).

I scoped that one, yet TT Schedule was just so favorable,
I couldn’t quite get there...really hope you cash it

Assessed my alumnus also;
LOVED OREGON STATE OVER 5½

(Beavers' Under-rated D; especially #1 PAC-12 Pass D in 2011)

Yet, Beavers’ weakest pressure-point: O-LINE
Continues to suffer Unit losses/Injuries

Just uncanny how a Team can finish #1 in FBS in 2009
Fewest starts lost to Injury (OSU: 2 Gm Starts Lost to Inj '09)
To 14TH (2010) & 4TH WORST (2011) in the 2 Yrs Since

LOOKING AT COLLEGE FOOTBALL INJURY REPORT:
# OF LISTINGS UNDER ‘OREGON STATE’: 21!
By comparison, PENN STATE: 14!

Eye-Carumba....

Way-Out-West, LLC ™ | INVIGORATING SPORTS ANALYSIS | stevebeav.blogspot.com | #Stevebeav
"Winning is determined by ones appropriate response to Losing" | Sleep? Overrated
BEAVER NATION: Powered by Orange | Overachieving Since 1868 | "Great Day to be a Beaver"

Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
Posts: 1398
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Great job Stevebeav, my numbers also support your Oklahoma data. One of the most overrated teams in the country. Best of luck this season.

The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown.

Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

Follow me on Twitter @BLeonardSports for interesting articles and late minute bets

Stevebeav
Joined: 10/09/2007
Posts: 6206
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

Thanks a Million, Brian; I sincerely appreciate the feedback, & Looking forward to a great season of slicing up these games & matchups w/all you experts.

Way-Out-West, LLC ™ | INVIGORATING SPORTS ANALYSIS | stevebeav.blogspot.com | #Stevebeav
"Winning is determined by ones appropriate response to Losing" | Sleep? Overrated
BEAVER NATION: Powered by Orange | Overachieving Since 1868 | "Great Day to be a Beaver"

Johnny Detroit
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 20791
All Pro
Top 10 Contributor

Two things with football all these years: 1) The Boys and his NFL Underdog Game of the Week and 2) Steve Beav in depth unique analysis.

57% Over 800+ NFL/CFB Wagers Since 2004!

Follow JD on twitter CLICK HERE Follow JD on Facebook CLICK HERE Follow JD on Google+ CLICK HERE Follow JD on Tumblr CLICK HERE

Johnny Detroit, Co-Founder and Vice-President Bettors get ready at Pregame.com
1-800-PREGAME | johnny@pregame.com AOL/YAHOO IM: johnnypregame MSN Messenger: jd@pregame.com

Tony George
Joined: 08/22/2006
Posts: 7590
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Interesting.....good read Steve......I do not agree with all of it but Texas will be better than most think.  I have argued that on on radio twice already this year, no one buys it...I do...

West Virginia looks good on paper and crushed in a bowl game last year.  But 4600 miles of travel for 6 road games is tough stuff.  If you look at the 5 previous weeks leading up to Oklahoma on Nov. 17 you will see one thing stand out, IT IS NOT A BIG EAST SCHEDULE....that is going to make it very difficult for them no matter how talented and explosive they are on offense.

Regards, Tony George- Big 12 Expert, 21 Year Veteran Capper, Pregame Pro Handicapper -  "I hate to lose, more than I Love to Win"

Twitter @tgeorgesports

Stevebeav
Joined: 10/09/2007
Posts: 6206
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

Great insight, TG... WVU is a longshot... No question.  Just see Mounties as uniquely suited this year above most, to step up to Big 12... We've seen so many cases where the timing was just awful to shift Conferences (didn't start well for UU, foe example), & good Grief, does Mizzou's timing look poor for a jump to an SEC Deathmarch...not sure A&M's timing is too good either, for that matter.  Anyone who's heard ant radio stuff of mine knows of my affinity & affiliation w a certain self titled expert (whom we assist w/his world class CFB Annual Publication), yet a very prominent expert (coincidentally?) lists TEXAS as one of his 'favorite' teams in 2012 -  AT THE SAME TIME contradicts my assessment of OU by calling for Sooners to reach 2013 BCS TITLE Game (& lose) vs FLA ST.  Either way, your points about travel are very astute (as always) & highlights the preposterous situation that nearly became a logistical reality for SAN DIEGO STATE & BOISE STATE ... Participating in the BIG EAST.  

Sincerest thanks, Tony & JOHNNY for the complimentary words & comments.  Just passed Midnight out west... Meaning we're officially ONE WEEK AWAY FROM THE UNPFFICIAL START OF THE 2012-2013 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON.  Sky high - & sleep IS overrated!  All the best guys

Way-Out-West, LLC ™ | INVIGORATING SPORTS ANALYSIS | stevebeav.blogspot.com | #Stevebeav
"Winning is determined by ones appropriate response to Losing" | Sleep? Overrated
BEAVER NATION: Powered by Orange | Overachieving Since 1868 | "Great Day to be a Beaver"

  • 7 Replies
  • 1 Subscriber
  • Posted8 months ago