I have always done well week 1 and 2. I feel that we have an advantage with the great unknown, before Vegas tightens their grip on us, like they do in the NFL. I try to stay away from the marquee match ups with public money coming in. Last year I was all over FIU and T.Y. Hilton (now with the colts) They were a 7 point or more underdog the first month before being favored in nearly every game after that. I have a few teams I like this year under the radar, (this after abusing my Phil Steele magazine) I am in the process of handicapping my week one games and trying to find 3 teams, match ups, games to clean up on. Let me know if anyone has any insight, knowledge, games they love, without looking at Vegas early lines. I will update this later within the next week or so, with my games. Knowledge is power, and if we all share , someone has to win..lol.
OK, Hebert, I'm currently looking at some early CFB games and will send them along. Let me know if you see something. Thanks !!
sURE WILL, without even handicapping and dialing in games, and before reading the magazine, (as I always do) I loved Tennessee , I just love Tyler Bray, and he got hurt last year along with best receiver not to mention they play in the SEC, lol. NC state overachieved tremendously last year and although I like Tom Obrien and think he is a solid coach, in 6 years at NC STATe 23 of his 33 wins have come at home at Carter-Finley stadium. Not to mention he has opened up at home against Liberty and Western Carolina the last 2 years (Liberty put up 21). 4 years ago opened up on the road at South Carolina getting +14 and lost 34-0. A guy named Russell Wilson was qb, although a freshman, as a team were 5-20 41 yards. While I don't see similar stats here, I see NC State defense as a weakness of the team, combine that with Bray who threw for 698 a school record in his first 2 games, well i smell blowout. oh and the ol SEC vs ACC witch gets talked about if this was bowl season, . I hated the fact that i saw the number before i finished, because i have it at 13 not to mention I took away 3 for neutral site. Now it has me scared because I respect the industry and their resources, lol. I like QB's on the cusp, like a Kellen Moore freshman year looking like he was 12 years old, and following the great Jared Zerbransky (cover of ncaa football). Anyway let me know if im overlooking the Wolfpack.
I'm with you on TIennessee. I just don't see why folks are so high on the Pack. This N.C State team had 2 bad losses last year in Wake Forest and Boston College. Got smoked by Cincinnati and lost to basically every team they played with a pulse. They did beat Clemson last year. However, every sharp in the country was on N.C State in that game for some reason. Something was up and the sharps took advantage so I would almost have to put an asterick next to that game. Glennon has the mobility and pocket awareness of a rock. If UT can get pressure on him it's going to be a long night for the wolfpack.
Biggest thing that concerns me is the line has moved down to 5.5. I don't think Joe Blow Public is betting on games a month ahead of time, so some respectable money has to be coming in on N.C State. But, even with that said, I like the Vols in the 31-17 range.
you said it, again thats why im in shock to start the season...joe blow is still out camping and swimming they are not laying money down..lol. I see the vols winning by 7 minimum...the following week, they host georgia st, i believe and nc state has to go on the true road, against uconn who they only beat last year at home on a pick 6 with a minute remaining..i will do my research, on this but as of now im perplexed..
Major line move today down to 3.5. I couldn't take it anymore. I don't think the line is going to get any better than this for UT backers in this one. I bought the hook. Vols -3 for me. Bray has to many weapons in this one.
wow, its so good its scary, i have to have a talk with my ego, before i bet on this one...maybe ill give coach Dooley a call, lol..It doesnt happen very often, but Vegas is filled with humans and sometimes they miss bad, I dont see how VOLS dont win by 7...look at NC STATE wins last year , all of them were not convincing to me, and as you stated they got whooped by anybody decent., Love coaches in their 3rd year, (brian kelly, chris peterson, jeff tedford,ect) they get players fitting their system..Tenn,may not be a SEC powerhouse, but they still in the SEC and as Urban Meyer himself stated the other day, the speed is just on a different level, but where he notices it the most is on the defensive side of the ball, mainly the dline. He says there is no comparison, when he was asked about the big ten..So now compare that to ACC, or just the teams in question. Dooley got the most out of LA TEch teams..when they lost it was because of talent disparity and not coaching. I just dont get it..VOLS by 10...This reminds me of 2010 opener for Michigan. Shoelace, Denard Robinson, before everyone was wanting his autograph, opened up at home against UCONN, -3. I was spinning wondering crying shouting, WHY WHY WHY, they ended up winning 30-10..and it was never close..14-0 1st quarter D. Robinson had 197 rushing and 187 passing..and Michigan had no defense that year.(65 points givin up to Illinois)...All this is just off the top of my head, im not trying to justify, or explain..my gut tells me..BLOWOUT..and even if its not, like you said at 3? or 4 too good not to put something on it..
i hope i can change ur opiinion on this game about tennessee and nc state....
i like nc state teased this game will come right down to the end of the game....one stat that u cant find in ur analysis and i grant thats what the pros are lookin at is the coaching here....nc state is far and away a better coached team by light years....and honestly there talent doesnt lack either
tom obrien and his staff have been together for over 3 seasons....tennessee new d cordinator takes awhile to put that in and there dc didnt even call plays on defense last year he was the linbacker coach at alabama....tennessee and dooley on the hot seat no loyalty anything goes wrong the alumni will crusify him
this is nc state best team since philip rivers was there
tennessee qb better then glennon no way....glennon number 2 overall qb out of highschool
rest of the team....tom obrien says this is his best offensive line in 6 years...
defensive backs one of the top secoundaries in nation everyone back....(with a dc who recruited them and was down last year)
there rb...21 overall out of high school....
right tackle 2 overall
kicker 9 overall
thats there weapons and ur going against that bec u have a hunch that tennessee will be good this year?
there only weakness on this team is at linebacker...
how about playing styles what teams give nc state troubles? answer spread offense teams last year and even farther back.....wake forest 34-27 , cinncinnattie 44-14 and payback game, central michigan 38-24
fsu 34-0 ,........now against pro formation teams.....loss 14-10 bc virginia 28-14 win, nc 13-0 win,
what does tennessee run? spread or proformation?.......pro formation....
lights out tennessee take nc state plus points and teas them...that is what the pros see....
........nc state will be there all night....and if it is a coin flip ill take the seasoned coach in obrien...any day of the week...
I totally agree with you about head coach. Tom Obrien always got the most out of BC teams, I learned the hard way over about a 5 year period. I agree he has much better talent, and a stable coaching staff with Bible, and Archer. Glennon is the real deal also, I like him as a qb. I just think on a nuetral site, against SEC team, how does Tennessee lose? Especially that Im banking on the fact that Dooley is ion the hot seat.
Now I had the same theory last year, Boise vs Georgia. Richt, somehow on the hot seat, loaded team, defense speed, sec team vs a boise team that lost skill players, no receivers, in the Goergia dome, (basically home game) and what happened? Georgia played its worst game of the year, or you can say Boise outcoached them, and beat them with less. Although the great Kellen Moore was 28-34 261 3td. (I dont think glennon on his level). Georgia went on to win 10 games again..just not the one I thought they should.
I bring this up because this game sets up similar, I know niether has to do with the other, but agian, there is a reason Vegas has all those tall buildings, lol. Obrien has burned me many times with slow non athletic teams. I just cant ever bet against SEC vs any conference. I stated before, if this was bowl season every body would have a total different approach to this game. I just see alot of Orange. lol
I think the fact you said you teased it, i like it more, .....
Some handicaping has been done, and thanks to a few easy winners on some pre-season nfl, (texans -colts) this weekend, i logged in and decided to place a few more bucks..If you have read you know I love Tennessee. I found 2 other games i really like..Akron +24, and Washington st +14. I will post my thoughts individually in separate posts...please comment on those games..Ironically those games are both Thursday, and i have put a few dimes on each, so it may shape my whole weekend, as the Tennessee, game is Friday, lol. I love the format, of betting straight money on 3 games ND then paray them. If and when i have stuck to that in college football I have been very sucessful, of course Im notorious for hitting 2-3 on parlays..exmple -100 each on straight bet and 50 on parlay..350 risked with possible 600 return..(my website actually 7-1 on 3 teamers some times) hit 2 out of 3? $200 win straight 150 loss ..+$50..not only that, you live to see another day..anyway..my breakdown of each game to follow..