Headed down to the former Hilton Superbook yesterday afternoon as word spread that they would be releasing their College Football Games of the Year. Got down there around 1PM in order to beat the crowd and found a seat next to Joe Fortenbaugh of the National Football Post. The LVH put out the sheets a bit early so I was able to go over the games with the numbers I had already made for every game this season. What was amazing to me was the lack of interest from the Las Vegas betting public. I was there for roughly two hours and saw just a handful of the other professionals I'm usually fighting with to grab the best number. I don't know if the limits were too low ($1000) or they had tremendous respect for the linesmaker. In any case there were no lines and I didn't need to fight off the masses in order to get my plays in. While I saw a few of the sports betting media there who I respect, the bettors were nowhere to be found. In fact, a colleague of mine walked in about 30 minutes after I left and was told only five games actually moved from the openers.
I'm well aware that people don't want to tie up their bankrolls early in the season but I would much rather take a chance at matching wits with one or two bookmakers as opposed to hundred of thousands of bettors on game day. I guarantee your win percentage from these early lines will far exceed your day of the game bets, if only you do the work ahead of time. Anyway, I was able to find four plays off the LVH card. There were many more playable games but I had already grabbed a part of those from my 21 pieces played earlier at The Golden Nugget.
Here is what I found yesterday:
9/22/2012 Michigan +4 1/2 at Notre Dame
11/9/2012 Connecticut +4 hosting Pittsburgh
11/17/2012 Stanford +14 1/2 at Oregon
12/1/2012 Oklahoma State -6 at Baylor
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Thanks for the insight and information.
Thanks Duffer best of luck to you.
Thank you for the info and picks from the lines released at LVH. Obviously the lines have moved from your 21 previous plays down at the Nugget. Of those 21, which lines do you see as still having value? Thanks in advance and I enjoy reading all of your information!
Boise, I haven't been there in a week so I'm not sure of the current numbers. I did feel better about the one game that moved against me as I bet Texas +6 against Oklahoma. The line at the Nugget moved to 7. Yesterday the Hilton had 5 1/2 so maybe I didn't get such a bad number after all.
Question for you. What are your thoughts on your Broncos this year?
Thanks for getting back to me so quick. No surprise, but Boise will be down a few notches this year. Lost a ton of seniors and NFL talent. Big time QB battle going on. 4 guys competing for the position. Junior Joe Southwick looks like the leader out of spring ball, but Peterson has said numerous times all 4 will get a shot at it in fall camp. Boise has been more of a ground and pound offense the last few years even with Moore. But with the new OC this year, word on the street is the high flying quick strike offense is going to be more of the approach, as it was when Peterson was OC. Past 2 OC's have been run orientated and conservative. My biggest worry is Boise is very thin at RB.
Defensive side is better off than most people think. Boise rotates TONS of players on defense. Yes, they lost a lot on that side, but the guys who will be stepping in as starters this year certainly have plenty of game experience. Top 2 corners were out when the D got lit up by TCU. Those guys are back now, and all in all I think the defense will surpise folks.
The way their schedule sets up, I think over the 9.5 win total is a pretty good bet. They play the Mt. West cupcakes and don't run into Air Force this year. Basically, they play 4 games. At Michigan St., BYU at home, at S. Miss and at Nevada. If they go .500 in those games the ticket cashes. I also like them against Mich St. I think there is some real value at 7.5. Peterson with all summer to prepare for Sparty, and on the other hand Mich St. has no idea what to expect from the Broncos. What do you think of the Mich St./Boise line?
on that boise mich state game no way would u bet boise.....mich state rolls them....on the road new qb new rb new wideouts it will be tough for them to move the ball like mich state and the under...and u know espn will be all over how good boise is early how they beat georgia how they beat vt...no way the public will be all over boise there....i can see a 27 to 3 game honestly
just saying there is true competition at qb is a downer then there isnt a man at qb....when u bet on road teams it is very important to go with a qb that believes he is the man and no other when u dont ur worried about being yanked....classic gambling 101...boise other games early were totally different....they had a expierence at the key positions and were not competing against one another ...please dont take boise there i beg u ....esp with all the hoopla of how good mich state was last year that team is going to have a lot of confidence and 80,000 fans screaming looking for bronco blood....one other point as well boise doesnt do well against teams that can line up and hit them in the mouth there great when they are the bullies but teams who play smash mouth they flake off in the end...(ex. tcu)
Every year it's the same thing. They were supposed to get rolled by Oregon (twice) Va. Tech and Georgia. 4-0 in big game openers. (Well, one of the Oregon games was week 2) Mich St. is starting a new QB as well. Boise will have a 6th year senior starting at RB with over 1K career yards and the entire wr corps is back, not gone. Public will be all over Mich St. not Boise. Just feel as though 7.5 points creates alot of value for the Broncos in this one.
I'm not trying to start an argument with you here, but you are a bit un-educated on Boise St. You do have a very valid point about the QB situation. Agree with you 100% there. But your off a bit on your other points. Kellen was a freshman when he went into Autzen and won, and a sophomore when they beat Oregon at home. 80K fans doesn't scare me AKA the Georgia Dome last year and Fed Ex field vs. Va. Tech. It's not their first rodeo. As far as playing physical, I think that's where your way off. Boise went toe to toe with Georgia and physically beat them in the trenches. Look at their rushing stats. And one of their rushes was an 80 yard gain late in the 1st Q. Nothing before or after that. Va. Tech had the 2 headed monster at RB and Boise shut them down. Forget the kids name, but the Hokie QB caused problems on the edge by rushing, throwing on the run and making athletic plays. TCU crushed Boise St. in the air last year. Boise got beat on 2 double moves for bombs, and beat on 2 other bombs. It was painful to watch. Top 2 corners were out that game and it showed big time. Those 2 are healthy now. But by no means has Boise been physically manhandled.