National Championship Play

I haven't exactly kept track of what i have done in these bowls, but i do know i've lost Washington, Tulsa and Iowa on last minute backdoors. Other then that i have won a large majority of them. Tonight is the last one and that sucks....but i do have a feeling on who should win. 

Alabama -1
($375/300)

I think Alabama has a great team and if they had a legitimate FG kicker then we wouldn't be questioning how good LSU is and instead we'd be wondering how Alabama could lose this. I do use a "model" to determine my college football plays and this one came out Alabama. I really don't care about the number of points because essentially at -1, i am picking a winner anyways. 

Also to me it's clear who the books are taking a position on and who they're are not. LSU who most consider the best team in the country are now getting +2 at most shops. I would expect 2/3's of the public to come in and bet LSU today as well. Also they're now +120ish on the moneyline and they've opened themselves up to LSU being teased up over a touchdown. If you believe in free money then i suggest LSU for you today since the books are giving them away right now. Also i just can't see any team beating this Alabama team twice in one season. I couldn't see lSU losing twice either btw. 

The un-explainable line here and the fact that i have a strong lean towards Alabama makes it easy for me to pull the trigger here. I wouldn't be surprised to see a move back, but i can't see a move to 3. GL