This game will feature a BCS worthy matchup, but i believe will turn into a blood bath. Arkansas has 18 starting seniors in this game & factor that in with Bobby Petrino's must win attitude and think we will get max effort from the Hogs tonight. Something that sticks out to me are past performances against teams that have similar offenses and their results for both the Hogs and K-State lets take a moment to look this over.......
KSU
KSU vs OKLAHOMA |
13 |
58 |
17-58 |
L |
KSU at OKLAHOMA ST |
21 |
70.5 |
45-52 |
L |
KSU vs TEXAS A&M |
5.5 |
66.5 |
53-50 |
W |
Ark
ARK vs TEXAS A&M |
2.5 |
62 |
42-38 |
W |
ARK vs MISSISSIPPI ST |
-13 |
54 |
44-17 |
W |
ARK at LSU |
11 |
53.5 |
17-41 |
L |
Ark at VANDERBILT |
-8 |
53.5 |
31-28 |
W |
As we can see both teams had a common opponent in A&M and both won by 3 points, though Arkansas took the 1st half off in that game and won it in the 2nd, much like they did most of their road/neutral games.....I compared LSU,Ms. State,& Vandy to K-State due to their mobile QB's offense which i felt was comprable to K-State & compared OSU & OKL to Arkansas's talenented group of WR & QB Tyler Wilson. All you Big West guys(dont know what to call that conference anymore) are going to slam me for this, but i feel Arkansas's level of competion was far greater than K-State's when comparing apple for apple and saw how good Arkasnas really was when they had LSU on the ropes the first half of the Golden Boot game. With 18 starting Seniors for Arkansas, i think the motivation is there for them to play max effort for 4 quareters and this thing gets ugly for a run first type offense for K-State when Arky takes the lead. Of course if Arky shits the bed the 1st half like they have several games this year, they could be playing catchup the second half, but i think this will not be the case. Using two different models my raw numbers have this at:
K-State-27.77 Arky-32.23
K-State-29.83 Arky-35.69
This game might be close the 1st half, but much like the Oklahoma game i expect for Petrino's high octane offense to eventually bust this game wide open and rout K-State. When run first teams fall behind it takes them out of their comfort zone and forces them to air the ball out more than they like, which usually equates to easy interceptions for the D. Final Score Prediction----K-State-24 Arkansas-42
Arkansas-7(BH) $480=$400
Best of luck to all & GET MONEY!!!!!!!!!
Arky by 14 to 28 in this one IMO..... SOUUUIIIEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!
(i'd still make this a average play all the way to -9.5)