Forums

Forums
Where sports bettors talk!

INTRODUCING . . . VEGAS RANKINGS (feedback please)

CFB
Thread Starter INTRODUCING . . . VEGAS RANKINGS (feedback please)
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 14156
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

Guys . . . New project I am beta-testing this week . . . next week we will launch live - with ESPN.com distribution and national radio distribution . . . tell me what you like, what you'd like to see added, and anything which is not clear to you . . .

All sports fans have opinions, but only bookmakers and professional bettors back their opinions with big money. Each week, the most famous names in Las Vegas sports betting provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These are the secret numbers that directly influence millions of dollars of action each week. VEGAS RANKINGS are calculated using a proprietary algorithm – generating the final word on what teams Vegas believes are truly the best, plus what teams are being incorrectly valued by the public’s losing bias.

Hm
Field
True
Power
Bettor
Bias
Point
Spread
Power
1 Alabama 5 100 2 102
2 LSU 4.5 99 2.5 101.5
3 Stanford 4 97 2.5 99.5
4 Oklahoma 5 96 0.5 96.5
5 Oklahoma St 3.5 95 2 97
6 Oregon 5 94.5 2.5 97
7 Boise St 5.5 94 2 96
8 Wisconsin 4.5 90.5 0.5 91
9 Texas A & M 3.5 87.5 0 87.5
10 Clemson 4 86.5 0.5 87
11 Arkansas 3.5 86 0 86
12 Notre Dame 3.5 85.5 1.5 87
13 Virginia Tech 4 85 0 85
14 Georgia 4 85 0 85
15 Michigan St 3.5 84.5 0.5 85
16 Florida St 3.5 83.5 0 83.5
17 Missouri 3.5 83 0 83
18 Nebraska 4 83 0.5 83.5
19 W Virginia 3.5 83 0 83
20 USC 3.5 82.5 0.5 83
21 TCU 4 82.5 0 82.5
22 Arizona St 3.5 82.5 0 82.5
23 Michigan 3.5 82 0.5 82.5
24 Houston 3.5 82 0.5 82.5
25 S Carolina 3.5 82 -0.5 81.5
26 Texas 4 82 0 82
27 Ohio St 4 82 0.5 82.5
28 Georgia Tech 3.5 79.5 0 79.5
29 Kansas St 3.5 79.5 0 79.5
30 Florida 4 79 0 79
31 Miami Fl 3 79 0 79
32 Cincinnati 3.5 79 0 79
33 Baylor 3 79 0 79
34 Penn St 4 78.5 -0.5 78
35 So. Miss 3.5 78 0 78
36 Auburn 3.5 78 0 78
37 Washington 2.5 77.5 0 77.5
38 Texas Tech 3 76 0 76
39 N Carolina 3 76 0 76
40 Miss St 3.5 75 0 75

* TRUE POWER tells you how good Vegas thinks a team really is. True Power (home team) plus Home Field Advantage minus True Power (away team) can be used to project the score of any game.

* BETTOR BIAS tells you by how many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team based upon illogical biases.

* POINT SPREAD POWER is the combination of True Power and Bettor Bias. Include home field advantage to project who Vegas would favor in any game.

Participants in VEGAS RANKINGS:

Jimmy Vaccaro: Arguably the most famous bookmaker in the world, currently the Director of Sportsbook Operations for the Lucky’s chain in Nevada.

Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.

Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.

Chris Andrews: Assistant Sportsbook director for the Cal-Neva chain in Nevada.

Vegas Runner: professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN – columnist for GAMING TODAY.

Compiled by: RJ Bell, founder of Pregame.com

---

RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@Twitter
Called a "True Insider" by ESPN
Pick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!
I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

runner91
Joined: 10/10/2011
Posts: 393
All American
Not Ranked

RJ, I think the True "Vegas" Power ranking is likely to be adopted by a lot of people who would think its a pretty credible source (your point around putting $$$ behind the opinions not just editorial).  It might be especially powerful in the +/- format relative to last week similar to how BCS ranking evolve week to week.  The downside is, since vegas is less influenced by a single weeks games, there would be less movement and a more static ranking might feel stale.  Thats the risk I guess.

Second, the "Point Spread Power" + Home field dont really show who vegas favors, does it?  EG doesnt vegas consider situational handicapping, influence of key numbers, etc?

StatLabSports
Joined: 02/24/2011
Posts: 831
Pro Draft Prospect
Top 500 Contributor

Cool stuff, congradulations and good luck with this new endeavor.  I look forward to the ESPN connection.  Not sure what feedback you want...the panel seems qualified enough (slight understatement).

Dave Basinger

On Twitter @StatLabSports

 

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 14156
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

runner91

RJ, I think the True "Vegas" Power ranking is likely to be adopted by a lot of people who would think its a pretty credible source (your point around putting $$$ behind the opinions not just editorial).  It might be especially powerful in the +/- format relative to last week similar to how BCS ranking evolve week to week.  The downside is, since vegas is less influenced by a single weeks games, there would be less movement and a more static ranking might feel stale.  Thats the risk I guess.

Second, the "Point Spread Power" + Home field dont really show who vegas favors, does it?  EG doesnt vegas consider situational handicapping, influence of key numbers, etc?



Great idea to compare to BCS.

The POINT SPREAD POWER would be the starting point of any line . . . situational handicapping (schedule, likely motivation), match-up handicapping, and injuries will affect the number on a specific game.

---

RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@Twitter
Called a "True Insider" by ESPN
Pick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!
I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

Ace of Spades
Joined: 03/03/2011
Posts: 3671
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Love it.  Really interesting stuff RJ

StarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStarStar

2011 CALENDAR YEAR

610-474 +120.04 Units flat betting

Follow me on Twitter: __AceOfSpades__

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

Talking 2011 WNBA Season: http://tinyurl.com/TodayInSportsBetting

Talking MLB, NFL Preseason/Team Win Totals: http://tinyurl.com/TheBettingSportsShow

JayhawkDeke
Joined: 01/01/2010
Posts: 266
Jr. College
Not Ranked

Really appreciate all you do to help us make better decisions. BOL with your ESPN & radio launch looks as if all your hard work is paying off. Know you, Marco, RJ, and all pros put in mucho hours. Thanks again.

Pcross
Joined: 11/17/2010
Posts: 177
College Varsity
Not Ranked

I would argue some sort of motivation factor...... So much of handicapping is based off of motivation, and home field should be evaluated such, such as...... Oklahoma off a loss at home, home field isn't worth 3 or 4, it's worth 6 or 7.  Also, I would argue bigger games mean more of a home field advantage for certain teams, especially against unproven road favs.  But all in all, keep up the great work RJ and everyone at pregame

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 14156
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

Pcross

I would argue some sort of motivation factor...... So much of handicapping is based off of motivation, and home field should be evaluated such, such as...... Oklahoma off a loss at home, home field isn't worth 3 or 4, it's worth 6 or 7.  Also, I would argue bigger games mean more of a home field advantage for certain teams, especially against unproven road favs.  But all in all, keep up the great work RJ and everyone at pregame



Agree 100% . . . there's no way 2 numbers (TRUE POWER + BETTOR BIAS) can ever give you a final handicap . . . but VEGAS RANKINGS is the first rankings ever to account for both how good a team is AND bias in the market . . . and those two factors get you closer to what the line should be than any other rankings . . . from there, the game-specific handicapping factors come into play.

---

RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@Twitter
Called a "True Insider" by ESPN
Pick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!
I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 19016
All Pro
Top 10 Contributor

I'd like to know how they come up with their home field advantage.....It's pretty cool to see their rankings though, though they pretty much mirror all the Polls to some degree...

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

The Game
Joined: 10/19/2010
Posts: 747
Pro Draft Prospect
Top 500 Contributor

Great info on Home Field Advantage and Bettor Bias; like the originality. The only thing that I would suggest is adding is all 120 teams (easy for me to say). Not sure it would be viable and/or feasible but other than that I really think this is cutting edge.  Looks great RJ.

"I mean really, I don't see why you people just can't watch the horses run around the track and not bet on them."

2
  • 49 Replies
  • 15 Subscribers
  • Postedover 1 year ago