Ohio State (11-2 SU/6-7 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 95.01 (#2)
Returning Starters: 15 (8 offense, 7 defense)
Key Losses: H-Back Curtis Samuel, WR Noah Brown, C Pat Elflein, LB Raekwon McMillan, CB Gareon Conley, S Marshon Lattimore, S Malik Hooker, K Tyler Durbin and P Cameron Johnston
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #2
2016 Season Recap: The Buckeyes were the least experienced team in the country last year as they returned only six starters. There was an expected drop off as their season win total was “only” 9.5 (South Point) and was lower at other sports books. The Buckeyes easily exceeded expectations in their first four games as they out-scored their opponents by a combined 228-37 highlighted by a 3-TD win at Oklahoma. Ohio State remarkably covered their first four games by an average of 24 ppg, but then saw point spread inflation the rest of the season. The Buckeyes needed overtime to avoid an upset at Wisconsin, then would blow a late lead vs Penn State (were 19-point favorites). It was the Buckeyes’ biggest upset loss since 1998. After another non-cover vs Northwestern, the Buckeyes got back on track in a big way beating Nebraska and Maryland by a combined 124-6. Ohio State nearly suffered another outright upset as a large favorite as they only beat Michigan State by 1 (were 3-TD favorites). In the regular season finale, they rallied to beat Michigan in double overtime (were laying 4). However, the season finished with a thud as they were crushed by Clemson 31-0 in the CFB playoff.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 39.4 13
Rushing 245.2 11
Passing 213.9 81
Total 459.2 31
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 15.5 3
Rushing 124.5 19
Passing 172.2 7
Total 296.8 6
Ohio St (SU: 11-2, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 6-7)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
Bowling Green
|
W
|
-27.5
|
77-10
|
o63.5
|
9/10
|
Tulsa
|
W
|
-28.5
|
48-3
|
u73
|
9/17
|
at Oklahoma
|
W
|
-1.5
|
45-24
|
o60
|
10/1
|
Rutgers
|
W
|
-39
|
58-0
|
u59.5
|
10/8
|
Indiana
|
L
|
-28
|
38-17
|
u60
|
10/15
|
at Wisconsin OT
|
L
|
-10.5
|
30-23
|
o45
|
10/22
|
at Penn St
|
L
|
-19
|
21-24
|
u56
|
10/29
|
Northwestern
|
L
|
-26.5
|
24-20
|
u53
|
11/5
|
Nebraska
|
W
|
-17.5
|
62-3
|
o53.5
|
11/12
|
at Maryland
|
W
|
-29.5
|
62-3
|
o57.5
|
11/19
|
at Michigan St
|
L
|
-21
|
17-16
|
u49.5
|
11/26
|
Michigan 2OT
|
L
|
-4
|
30-27
|
o46
|
12/31
|
† Clemson
|
L
|
-2.5
|
0-31
|
u59
|
2017 Outlook: The Buckeyes return eight starters on offense led by QB J.T. Barrett who threw for 2,555 yards and had a 24-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio. Barrett also added 845 yards on the ground and could put up better passing numbers this year under new offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson. Mike Weber is back at RB after rushing for 1,096 yards in 2016. The receiving unit did take a hit as they lost their top three including Curtis Samuel (1,655 all-purpose yards). The Buckeyes also lost their leader on the offensive line in All-American center Pat Elflein but return four starters led by 1st-Team All-Big Ten Billy Price who will slide over from RG to take Elflein’s place.
On defense, the Buckeyes suffer some big losses as they lose leading tackler Raekwon McMillan (102 tackles) and also three starters in the secondary that were all taken in the first round of the NFL Draft led by Malik Hooker (74 tackles and 7 INT’s). The defensive line could be the best in the country especially at the DE position led by Tyquan Lewis (Big Ten DL of Year in 2016) and Sam Hubbard (8 TFL’s).
The special teams unit loses both kicker Tyler Durbin (17 of 22 FG’s in 2016) and punter Cameron Johnston who averaged 46.7 yards per punt (No. 5 in the country).
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #16 J.T. Barrett 6-2 220 Sr
RB #25 Mike Weber 5-10 214 So
HB #21 Parris Campbell 6-1 208 Jr
WR #9 Binjimen Victor 6-4 195 So
WR #83 Terry McLaurin 6-1 204 Jr
TE #85 Marcus Baugh 6-5 250 Sr
LT #74 Jamarco Jones 6-5 310 Sr
LG #73 Michael Jordan 6-7 310 So
C #54 Billy Price 6-4 312 Sr
RG #69 Matthew Burrell 6-3 300 So
RT #59 Isaiah Prince 6-7 310 Jr
Defense:
DE #59 Tyquan Lewis 6-4 265 Sr
DT #77 Michael Hill 6-3 305 Sr
DT #86 Dre’Mont Jones 6-3 295 So
DE #6 Sam Hubbard 6-5 265 Jr
SLB #33 Dante Booker 6-3 240 Sr
MLB #35 Chris Worley 6-2 230 Sr
WLB #17 Jerome Baker 6-1 225 Jr
CB #12 Denzel Ward 5-10 191 Jr
S #4 Jordan Fuller 6-2 207 So
S #7 Damon Webb 5-11 195 Sr
CB #3 Damon Arnette 6-0 195 So
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
5-star CB Jeffrey Okundah 6-1 193
5-star DE Chase Young 6-5 240
5-star LB Baron Browning 6-4 230
5-star CB Shaun Wade 6-1 185
5-star OL Wyatt Davis 6-4 310
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
8/31
|
at Indiana
|
-18
|
9/9
|
Oklahoma
|
-7
|
9/16
|
Army
|
-37
|
9/23
|
UNLV
|
-44
|
9/30
|
at Rutgers
|
-30
|
10/7
|
Maryland
|
-32
|
10/14
|
at Nebraska
|
-14
|
10/21
|
Bye
|
|
10/28
|
Penn St
|
-10
|
11/4
|
at Iowa
|
-15
|
11/11
|
Michigan St
|
-25
|
11/18
|
Illinois
|
-36
|
11/25
|
at Michigan
|
-2
|
Schedule Analysis: The Buckeyes have not been an underdog since the end of the 2014 season and it looks like they will be favored in all of their games in 2017. The season starts off with a road trip to Indiana where Ohio State has failed to cover their last six meetings vs the Hoosiers. Week two features the Buckeyes hosting the Sooners and after last year’s demolition in Norman, Ohio State figures to be at least a TD favorite. The Buckeyes’ other two non-conference games (Army and UNLV) will see them listed as a very large favorite as will their next two Big Ten games at Rutgers and vs Maryland. The Buckeyes do play at Nebraska, but figure to be a double-digit favorite after annihilating the Cornhuskers last year. Ohio State gets the all-important bye week prior to a revenge game vs Penn State at home. A trip to Iowa the following week could be a let down spot, but Ohio State figures to be a large favorite in that one along with home games against Michigan State and Illinois. The season wraps up with a road trip to Michigan and with Ohio State winning 12 of the last 13 meetings, look for the Buckeyes to be a short favorite. Ohio State has only lost three regular season games in five years under Urban Meyer and I’d set their season win total at 11 with 10.5 being the absolute minimum.