Northwestern (7-6 SU/8-5 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 79.86 (#29)
Returning Starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)
Key Losses: WR Austin Carr, RT Erik Olson, LB Anthony Walker and LB Jaylen Prater
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #47
2016 Season Recap: After notching 10 wins in 2015, many expected Northwestern to take a step back in 2016 as their season win total was only 6.5 (South Point). The Wildcats’ season did not get off to a good start. Northwestern was upset at home to what turned out to be a very good Western Michigan team and they also lost outright to FCS Illinois St. The Wildcats did notch a win over Duke, but a home loss to Nebraska dropped them to 1-3 SU/ATS. Northwestern’s season turned around with an outright upset over Iowa on the road and after a bye week, they pulled another outright upset at Michigan State. After a win and cover over Indiana, the Wildcats nearly upset Ohio State on the road as 26-point underdogs. Their cover streak ended the next week when Wisconsin beat them 21-7 (+6.5). After a blowout win over Purdue, the Wildcats fell at Minnesota. They were able to beat rival Illinois in the regular season finale but came UNDER their season win total. However, their season did finish on a high note with an outright upset over Pittsburgh 31-24 (+4.5) in the bowl game.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 26.0 87
Rushing 153.2 91
Passing 245.1 53
Total 398.2 73
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 22.2 24
Rushing 139.2 30
Passing 265.2 109
Total 404.4 60
Northwestern (SU: 7-6, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 4-9)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
W Michigan
|
L
|
-4
|
21-22
|
u53.5
|
9/10
|
Illinois St
|
L
|
-12
|
7-9
|
u44
|
9/17
|
Duke
|
W
|
-4
|
24-13
|
u44.5
|
9/24
|
Nebraska
|
L
|
+8.5
|
13-24
|
u48
|
10/1
|
at Iowa
|
W
|
+12
|
38-31
|
o44
|
10/15
|
at Michigan St
|
W
|
+6.5
|
54-40
|
o42
|
10/22
|
Indiana
|
W
|
-3
|
24-14
|
u53.5
|
10/29
|
at Ohio St
|
W
|
+26.5
|
20-24
|
u53
|
11/5
|
Wisconsin
|
L
|
+6.5
|
7-21
|
u41.5
|
11/12
|
at Purdue
|
W
|
-13.5
|
45-17
|
o58
|
11/19
|
at Minnesota
|
L
|
-1.5
|
12-29
|
u46
|
11/26
|
Illinois
|
W
|
-16.5
|
42-21
|
o48.5
|
12/28
|
† Pittsburgh
|
W
|
+4.5
|
31-24
|
u64.5
|
2017 Outlook: Northwestern is one of the most experienced teams in the Big Ten with 16 returning starters. The offense is led by Clayton Thorson, who was one of the most improved QB’s in the country after throwing for 3,182 yards and a school-record 22 TD passes. The Wildcats also have one of the better RB’s in the country in Justin Jackson who ran for 1,524 yards and 15 TD’s last year. Jackson already has 4,129 career rush yards and barring injury will smash the all-time school-record this season.
Northwestern does lose the Big Ten’s best WR in Austin Carr who led the conference in receptions (90), yards (1,247) and TD’s (12). Look for Flynn Nagel (447 yards in 2016) and SB Garrett Dickerson (318 yards) to lead the unit. The offensive line does return four starters but loses a 3-year starter in RT Eric Olson.
The defense also returns eight starters led by safety Godwin Igwebuike (108 tackles). The Wildcats do lose LB Anthony Walker (105 tackles) who departed early for the NFL draft and DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (10 sacks) also departs. There are some depth concerns at LB but the DL unit is deep while the secondary is bolstered by the return of CB Keith Watkins who missed all of last year due to injury.
The special teams unit will have to replace kicker Jack Mitchell (8 of 12 FG’s last year). Hunter Niswander is back at punter after averaging 41.3 yards per punt a year ago and. Solomon Vault is also back as a dangerous kick returner (3 return TD’s last two years).
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #18 Clayton Thorson 6-4 220 Jr
RB #21 Justin Jackson 5-11 193 Sr
WR #2 Flynn Nagel 5-11 181 Jr
WR #4 Solomon Vault 5-10 190 Sr
WR #88 Bennett Skowronek 6-4 210 So
SB #9 Garrett Dickerson 6-3 240 Sr
LT #72 Blake Hance 6-5 305 Jr
LG #59 J.B. Butler 6-3 300 Jr
C #69 Brad North 6-2 290 Sr
RG #71 Tommy Doles 6-6 295 Jr
RT #73 Gunnar Vogel 6-6 286 RS Fr
Defense:
DE #97 Joe Gaziano 6-4 265 So
DT #99 Jordan Thompson 6-3 290 Jr
DT #67 Tyler Lancaster 6-3 310 Sr
DE #56 Xavier Washington 6-1 243 Sr
SLB #32 Nate Hall 6-2 230 Jr
MLB #45 Nathan Fox 6-2 245 So
WLB #10 Brett Walsh 6-1 215 Sr
CB #3 Keith Watkins 5-11 187 Jr
SS #16 Godwin Igwebuike 6-0 205 Sr
FS #21 Kyle Queiro 6-3 200 Sr
CB #24 Montre Hartage 6-0 190 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star DE Earnest Brown 6-5 235
3-star DT Sam Miller 6-3 260
3-star DE Trevor Kent 6-5 242
3-star S J.R. Pace 6-1 185
3-star OG Rashawn Slater 6-5 273
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
Nevada
|
-26
|
9/9
|
at Duke
|
-3
|
9/16
|
Bowling Green
|
-23
|
9/23
|
Bye
|
|
9/30
|
at Wisconsin
|
+14
|
10/7
|
Penn St
|
+7
|
10/14
|
at Maryland
|
-8
|
10/21
|
Iowa
|
-7
|
10/27
|
Michigan St
|
-8
|
11/4
|
at Nebraska
|
+1
|
11/11
|
Purdue
|
-21
|
11/18
|
Minnesota
|
-8
|
11/25
|
at Illinois
|
-12
|
Schedule Analysis: If you’re looking for a team that could surprise in the Big Ten this year, Northwestern is a solid choice. The Wildcats will most likely be favored in their three non-conference games including two large favorite roles over Nevada and Bowling Green. The Wildcats have beaten Duke in each of the last two years and figure to be slight favorites at Duke in Week 2 (remember Blue Devils were 4-8 a year ago). The Big Ten slate sees Northwestern avoid both Ohio State and Michigan from the East division and the Wildcats get key games against Penn State and Michigan State both at home (will be a home underdog to the Nittany Lions). The Wildcats do have a pair of tough road games at Wisconsin and at Nebraska in the West division (likely underdogs in both games). Currently I have Northwestern favored in nine of their 12 games but they do have five games where they are a favorite of eight points or less so I would set their win total around 8 and could even see 8.5.