Arkansas (7-6 SU/5-8 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 77.99 (#34)
Returning Starters: 12 (6 offense, 6 defense
Key Losses: RB Rawleigh Williams, TE Jeremy Sprinkle, LT Dan Skipper, DE Deatrich Wise, DE Jeremiah Ledbetter, LB Brooks Ellis
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #27
2016 Season Recap: The Razorbacks quite possibly had the most topsy-turvy season of any team in the country in 2016. In the opener, they nearly lost outright to Louisiana Tech as 23.5-point favorites. However, the very next week the Hogs would pull the outright upset at TCU in double-overtime. After a blowout win over Texas St, Arkansas would falter in the second half yet again vs Texas A&M. The Hogs would predictable split the Alcorn St/Alabama games and then pulled another outright upset beating Ole Miss 34-30 (+7.5). However, the very next week Arkansas was slaughtered 56-3 at Auburn. A bye week gave their defense a reset and Arkansas would pull yet another upset vs Florida. However, they would get blown out at home vs LSU the very next week. Arkansas then pulled off their 4th outright upset of the season in a 58-42 win at Mississippi St. The final two games epitomized their entire year as they blew a 24-7 halftime lead vs Missouri and somehow topped it by blowing a 24-0 lead vs Virginia Tech in the bowl. Overall, the Razorbacks would go UNDER their season win total of 7.5 (South Point).
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 30.3 57
Rushing 164.2 78
Passing 264.2 32
Total 428.4 54
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 31.1 85
Rushing 205.5 94
Passing 221.2 58
Total 426.6 76
Arkansas (SU: 7-6, ATS: 5-8, O/U: 6-7)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
La Tech
|
L
|
-23.5
|
21-20
|
u52.5
|
9/10
|
at TCU 2OT
|
W
|
+9.5
|
41-38
|
o57.5
|
9/17
|
Texas St
|
W
|
-30
|
42-3
|
u61.5
|
9/24
|
† Texas A&M
|
L
|
+6.5
|
24-45
|
o50
|
10/1
|
Alcorn St
|
L
|
-51
|
52-10
|
u68
|
10/8
|
Alabama
|
L
|
+14.5
|
30-49
|
o48.5
|
10/15
|
Mississippi
|
W
|
+7.5
|
34-30
|
u66.5
|
10/22
|
at Auburn
|
L
|
+10.5
|
3-56
|
o53.5
|
11/5
|
Florida
|
W
|
+4
|
31-10
|
u45.5
|
11/12
|
LSU
|
L
|
+7
|
10-38
|
o45.5
|
11/19
|
at Miss St
|
W
|
+1.5
|
58-42
|
o57.5
|
11/25
|
at Missouri
|
L
|
-8
|
24-28
|
u73
|
12/29
|
† Va Tech
|
L
|
+7
|
24-35
|
u61.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Razorbacks welcome back 12 starters led by QB Brandon Allen who threw for an SEC-high 3,430 yards a year ago. However, Allen will have to clean up his TO’s as he also threw for a league-high 15 interceptions. Allen will be throwing to a new set of WR’s as the Hogs lose their top 2 receivers plus their TE. Jared Cornelius leads the way (515 yards) and keep an eye on Brandon Martin (incoming JUCO recruit).
The Razorbacks got devastating news in early May as their leading rusher from last year Rawleigh Williams (1,360 yards, 12 TD’s) would give up playing football after suffering from a second neck injury. That leaves Devwah Whaley (602 yards last year) as the favorite to start. Whaley will be running behind an experienced offensive line led by center Frank Ragnow who is one of the best offensive lineman in college football.
The defense has a new D.C. in former Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads and the Razorbacks will be switching to a 3-4 front. They lose 3 of their top 4 tacklers including Brooks Ellis. Several of their players including NT Bijohn Jackson and OLB Randy Ramsey were better suited for the 3-4 and I saw improvement in the spring game. The changes were much needed considering the rush defense ranked No. 126 in the country allowing 5.9 yards per carry while giving up a school-record 39 rushing TD’s a year ago.
On special teams kicker Cole Hedlund is back (5 of 7 FG’s last year) while Adam McFain departs (8 of 10 last year). There are concerns at punter with Toby Baker gone and last year’s backup Blake Johnson was sent home by head coach Bielema in spring.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #8 Austin Allen 6-1 209 Sr
RB #21 Devwah Whaley 5-11 216 So
FB #34 Kendrick Jackson 6-1 255 Jr
WR #1 Jared Cornelius 5-11 212 Sr
WR #5 Brandon Martin 6-4 215 So
TE #44 Austin Cantrell 6-4 269 So
LT #74 Colton Jackson 6-6 300 So
LG #51 Hjalte Froholdt 6-4 318 Jr
C #72 Frank Ragnow 6-5 319 Sr
RG #62 Johnny Gibson 6-4 344 Jr
RT #60 Brian Wallace 6-6 335 Jr
Defense:
DE #3 McTelvin Agim 6-3 289 So
NT #78 Bijhon Jackson 6-2 335 Sr
DE #52 T.J. Smith 6-3 285 So
OLB #96 Karl Roesler 6-1 256 Sr
ILB #23 Dre Greenlaw 6-0 226 Jr
ILB #8 De’Jon Harris 6-0 255 So
OLB #10 Randy Ramsey 6-4 228 Jr
CB #11 Ryan Pulley 5-11 198 Jr
SS #9 Santos Ramirez 6-2 205 Jr
FS #20 De’Andre Coley 6-1 214 Sr
CB #5 Henre’ Toliver 6-1 185 Sr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star CB Chevin Calloway 5-10 180
4-star S Montaric Brown 6-0 182
4-star WR Brandon Martin 6-4 215
4-star TE Jeremy Patton 6-6 230
3-star RB Chase Hayden 5-10 189
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
8/31
|
Florida A&M
|
-52
|
9/9
|
TCU
|
-1
|
9/16
|
Bye
|
|
9/23
|
† Texas A&M
|
+3
|
9/30
|
New Mexico St
|
-30
|
10/7
|
at South Carolina
|
+3
|
10/14
|
at Alabama
|
+24
|
10/21
|
Auburn
|
+7
|
10/28
|
at Ole Miss
|
+5
|
11/4
|
Coastal Carolina
|
-27
|
11/11
|
at LSU
|
+17
|
11/18
|
Mississippi St
|
-5
|
11/25
|
Missouri
|
-8
|
Schedule Analysis: Like with most SEC West teams, the conference schedule is demanding and the Razorbacks will be significant underdogs at Alabama and at LSU. On the bright side, they have a soft non-conference schedule and their toughest non-conference foe (TCU) at home. The Texas A&M game is again in Arlington (TX), but the Aggies have owned the Hogs as of late. There’s also a good possibility that the Razorbacks will be underdogs in all 4 of their October games before the schedule eases up in November. Overall, I have Arkansas favored in 6 games and an underdog in 6 games. Of the six games where my projected line is “7” or less, Arkansas is an underdog in 4 of those. I was leaning at putting the Hogs season win total at 6.5 but with the recent news of RB Rawleigh Williams, I’ll leave it at 6.