Mississippi State (6-7 SU/5-8 ATS in 2016
May 1 Power Rating: 77.38 (#38)
Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
Key Losses: WR Fred Ross, OT Justin Senior, DE Johnathan Calvin, LB Richie Brown
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #24
2016 Season Recap: The post-Dak Presscott era could not have started worse for the Bulldogs as they suffered one of the biggest upset losses in the 2016 college football season losing outright to South Alabama as 4-TD favorites. After Nick Fitzgerald took control at QB, they did rebound to win and cover 2 of their next 3 games, but were crushed by Auburn. The Bulldogs then suffered back-to-back tough losses on the road to BYU and Kentucky in the closing seconds. That put their bowl streak (6 straight seasons) at a major risk. After a shoot-out win over FCS Samford, the Bulldogs scored their biggest win of the season upsetting then No. 4 Texas A&M 35-28 (+11). However, that was followed by a blowout loss to Alabama and their defense was run over by Arkansas. The season did finish on a high note as they crushed rival Ole Miss 55-20 (+9.5) in the Egg Bowl. Because of their high APR scores and the lack of 6-6 bowl eligible teams, the Bulldogs got a bowl invite despite their 5-7 record. It was nearly a disaster as they were out-played by Miami, Oh from start to finish and they nearly lost outright as 2-TD favorites. Overall, Mississippi St went UNDER their season win total of 6.5 (South Point) .
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 30.4 56
Rushing 230.5 23
Passing 209.7 89
Total 440.2 44
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 31.8 93
Rushing 177.5 70
Passing 281.5 120
Total 459.1 110
Mississippi St (SU: 6-7, ATS: 5-8, O/U: 7-6)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
S Alabama
|
L
|
-28.5
|
20-21
|
u53
|
9/10
|
S Carolina
|
W
|
-7.5
|
27-14
|
u48
|
9/17
|
at LSU
|
W
|
+13.5
|
20-23
|
u47
|
9/24
|
at UMass
|
L
|
-22.5
|
47-35
|
o48.5
|
10/8
|
Auburn
|
L
|
+3
|
14-38
|
u55
|
10/14
|
at BYU 2OT
|
W
|
+7.5
|
21-28
|
u56.5
|
10/22
|
at Kentucky
|
L
|
-4
|
38-40
|
o53.5
|
10/29
|
Samford
|
L
|
-21.5
|
56-41
|
o65.5
|
11/5
|
Texas A&M
|
W
|
+11
|
35-28
|
o61.5
|
11/12
|
at Alabama
|
L
|
+29.5
|
3-51
|
o53.5
|
11/19
|
Arkansas
|
L
|
-1.5
|
42-58
|
o57.5
|
11/26
|
at Ole Miss
|
W
|
+9.5
|
55-20
|
o68
|
12/26
|
† Miami, Oh
|
L
|
-14.5
|
17-16
|
u58.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Bulldogs return 13 starters led by QB Nick Fitzgerald who had an SEC-leading 3,798 total yards a year ago. Fitzgerald had a 21-10 TD-to-INT ratio and his 1,375 rushing yards (16 TD’s) was the 3rd best rush total by a QB in SEC history.
Fitzgerald will have to find some new targets in the receiving game as they lose their all-time leading receiver in Fred Ross (199 career receptions and 2,598 career yards). Donald Gray looks to be the leader as he had 41 receptions and 709 yards a year ago. Aeris Williams (720 yards in 2016) is back at RB, but they do lose OT Justin Senior who was an NFL draft pick and were shuffling many different line-ups in the spring.
On defense, they brought in a new defensive coordinator in Todd Grantham from Louisville as they will try to shore up a defense that allowed 459.1 yards per game last year (No. 110 in country). It is notably their 4th different DC in the last 4 years. They do lose their leader in LB Richie Brown (102 tackles) but keep an eye on Leo Lewis (79 tackles last year). To help speed up the rebuilding process the Bulldogs did sign 7 junior college players on the defense and the secondary looked improve in the spring game.
The specialists struggled a year ago as kicker Westin Graves was just 11 of 19 on FG’s while punter Logan Cooke averaged 40.0 yards per punt in 2016. Graves departs while the kickers struggled in the spring game.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #7 Nick Fitzgerald 6-5 230 Jr
RB #27 Aeris Williams 6-1 217 Jr
WR #6 Donald Gray 5-10 204 Sr
WR #5 Gabe Myles 6-0 192 Sr
WR #23 Keith Mixon 5-8 184 So
TE #82 Farrod Green 6-3 239 So
LT #55 Martinas Rankin 6-5 305 Sr
LG #74 Elgton Jenkins 6-4 308 Jr
C #61 Deion Calhoun 6-3 315 Jr
RG #73 Darryl Williams 6-2 305 So
RT #51 Stewart Reese 6-5 333 RS Fr
Defense:
DE #43 Fletcher Adams 6-2 270 So
NT #98 Jeffrey Simmons 6-4 307 So
DT #34 Cory Thomas 6-5 303 Jr
DE/OLB #4 Gerri Green 6-4 245 Jr
ILB #46 Dezmond Harris 6-4 243 Sr
ILB #44 Leo Lewis 6-2 235 So
Star #12 J.T. Gray 6-0 202 Sr
CB #2 Jamal Peters 6-2 218 Jr
SS #41 Mark McLaurin 6-2 215 Jr
FS #1 Brandon Bryant 6-0 213 Jr
CB #25 Lashard Durr 5-11 195 Sr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star OLB Willie Gay 6-2 223
4-star QB Keytaon Thompson 6-4 222
4-star RB Kylin Hill 5-11 210
4-star DE Chauncey Rivers 6-3 284
3-star S Johnathan Abram 6-0 214 Jr
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
Charleston Southern
|
-24
|
9/9
|
at Louisiana Tech
|
-8
|
9/16
|
LSU
|
+9
|
9/23
|
at Georgia
|
+13
|
9/30
|
at Auburn
|
+16
|
10/7
|
Bye
|
|
10/14
|
BYU
|
-6
|
10/21
|
Kentucky
|
-5
|
10/28
|
at Texas A&M
|
+8
|
11/4
|
Massachusetts
|
-26
|
11/11
|
Alabama
|
+16
|
11/18
|
at Arkansas
|
+5
|
11/23
|
Ole Miss
|
-4
|
Schedule Analysis: This is one of the more clear-cut schedules in the SEC. I have the Bulldogs favored in 6 of their games (all by 4 or more points) while I have them listed as an underdog in their other 6 games (all by 5 points or more). The Bulldogs start off their season with a perennial FCS playoff team in Charleston Southern and then travel to take on CUSA power Louisiana Tech, who should be sky-high hosting an SEC team. The 3-game gauntlet at the end of September featuring a home game against LSU and back-to-back road games vs Georgia and Auburn is arguably the toughest in the country. The Bulldogs get a much-needed bye week and then host both BYU and Kentucky who the Bulldogs should be favored over (neither will be a lay-up). Texas A&M will be looking for revenge from last year and after an easy game vs Massachusetts, the Crimson Tide come into Starkville. The Bulldogs will be an underdog at Arkansas but should be favored in the Egg Bowl vs rival Ole Miss. Overall, I’d set their season win total right at 6.