The official countdown to the 2017 college football season is now underway as spring practices are now complete for all 130 teams. Right here on Pregame, I will be previewing 1-2 teams every day (including weekends) throughout the next 3 months leading up to the release of my 2017 CFB preview and complete Power Ratings on August 1st.
I'll start off the team-by-team previews with the SEC and work my way through the Power 5 conferences before moving to the Group of 5 Conferences. Since I do put out my early projected line on every game, for selfish reasons I prefer to keep all the Group of 5 information that I have to myself before the season win totals are released at South Point. There is far more value on a school like South Alabama than there is on the Crimson Tide and most of my off-season bets involve those smaller schools.
Vanderbilt (6-7 SU/7-6 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 73.54 (#57)
Returning Starters: 16 (9 offense, 7 defense)
Key Losses: LB Zach Cunningham, OT Will Holden
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #62
2016 Season Recap: After going 3-9 in 2014 and 4-8 in 2015, Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason’s seat was starting to get warm in Nashville. Keep in mind, he inherited a program that had back-to-back 9-win seasons in 2012 and 2013 under James Franklin. After a tough 2-4 start where the Commodores lost 3 games by a TD or less, they got a break-through win at Georgia beating the Bulldogs outright as 14-point underdogs. They followed that up with a win over FCS Tennessee St and then easily covered at Auburn. After a disappointing loss at Missouri, the Commodores needed to win their final two games to get to a bowl. They responded by playing their two best games of the Derek Mason era by upsetting Ole Miss 38-17 (+9.5) and then took it to arch rival Tennessee 45-34 (+7.5). The bowl game was a clunker as they fell to NC State 41-17 (+5). Overall, the Commodores exceeded their season win total of 5 (South Point). Remarkably, Vanderbilt was only favored in 3 games and pulled off four upsets as a TD-plus underdog.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 23.0 113
Rushing 164.5 77
Passing 191.2 100
Total 355.7 110
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 24.0 35
Rushing 163.5 57
Passing 244.6 83
Total 408.2 64
Vanderbilt (SU: 6-7, ATS: 7-6, O/U: 7-6)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/1
|
S Carolina
|
L
|
-5
|
10-13
|
u41.5
|
9/10
|
Middle Tenn
|
W
|
-3.5
|
47-24
|
o50
|
9/17
|
at Ga Tech
|
L
|
+6.5
|
7-38
|
o44
|
9/24
|
at WKU OT
|
W
|
+8.5
|
31-30
|
o50.5
|
10/1
|
Florida
|
W
|
+11.5
|
6-13
|
u40.5
|
10/8
|
at Kentucky
|
L
|
+3.5
|
13-20
|
u49
|
10/15
|
at Georgia
|
W
|
+14
|
17-16
|
u42
|
10/22
|
Tenn St
|
L
|
-27.5
|
35-17
|
o44.5
|
11/5
|
at Auburn
|
W
|
+26
|
16-23
|
u46
|
11/12
|
at Missouri
|
L
|
+3.5
|
17-26
|
u53.5
|
11/19
|
Mississippi
|
W
|
+9.5
|
38-17
|
o50.5
|
11/26
|
Tennessee
|
W
|
+7.5
|
45-34
|
o51
|
12/26
|
† NC State
|
L
|
+5
|
17-41
|
o45
|
2017 Outlook: The Commodores return 16 starters including 9 on offense. Junior Kyle Shurmur is back at QB after throwing for 2,409 yards. He will have to improve upon his completion rate (54.4%) and his TD-to-INT ratio (9-10). He will have plenty of weapons to throw to as the top 3 receivers all return led by C.J. Duncan (494 yards). At RB, Ralph Webb is one of the more underrated players in all of college football and is already the all-time leading rusher in Vanderbilt history (3,347 yards). The OL does lose a key player in OT Will Holden who was a 5th round draft choice. Overall, the offense improved their ppg by more than a TD a year ago (15.2 ppg to 23.0) and look even better this year.
Derek Mason’s specialty is on the defensive side and to no surprise, the D has been the strength of the team in recent years. This year they do suffer a big loss in LB Zach Cunningham who had 125 tackles a year ago and was taken in the second round of the NFL draft. While they do return 7 starters, key starters like Ja’karri Thomas (59 tackles), Torren McGaster (10 pbu) and Adam Butler (4 sacks, 7.5 tfl) all depart.
On special teams they return kicker Tommy Openshaw who was 15 of 19 with a long of 52. Sam Loy is back at punter (avg 41.6) but the Commodores do lose their star return man in Darrius Sims.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #14 Kyle Shurmur 6-4 224 Jr
RB #7 Ralph Webb 5-10 202 RS Sr
WR #10 Trent Sherfield 6-1 200 Sr
WR #16 Kalija Lipscomb 6-1 192 So
WR #19 CJ Duncan 5-11 203 RS Sr
TE #80 Jared Pinkney 6-4 250 RS So
C #53 Sean McMoore-Auwae 6-4 305 RS Fr
RG #61 Bruno Reagan 6-3 315 RS Jr
LG #57 Ean Pfeifer 6-4 305 RS So
RT #58 Justin Skule 6-6 310 Jr
LT #77 Devin Cochran 6-7 305 RS Fr
Defense:
DE #34 Dare Odeyingbo 6-2 262 Jr
NT #77 Nifae Lealao 6-5 312 Sr
DE #49 Jonathan Wynn 6-4 265 RS Sr
OLB #11 Charles Wright 6-3 242 RS Jr
ILB #20 Oren Burks 6-3 226 RS Sr
ILB #40 Jordan Griffin 6-0 226 Jr
OLB #25 Josh Smith 6-4 236 Jr
CB #8 Joejuan Williams 6-3 205 So
FS #14 Ryan White 5-10 192 RS Sr
SS #2 Arnold Tarpley 6-1 204 Sr
CB #31 Tre Herndon 6-1 188 Sr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
QB Jacob Free 6-5 200
DE Dayo Odeyingbo 6-4 252
OT Bryce Bailey 6-5 290
OLB Dimitri Moore 6-2 195
S Tae Daley 5-11 175
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
at Middle Tennessee
|
-7
|
9/9
|
Alabama A&M
|
-45
|
9/16
|
Kansas St
|
+4
|
9/23
|
Alabama
|
+23
|
9/30
|
at Florida
|
+17
|
10/7
|
Georgia
|
+9
|
10/14
|
at Ole Miss
|
+10
|
10/21
|
Bye
|
|
10/28
|
at South Carolina
|
+7
|
11/4
|
Western Kentucky
|
-4
|
11/11
|
Kentucky
|
-1
|
11/18
|
Missouri
|
-3
|
11/25
|
at Tennessee
|
+13
|
Schedule Analysis: Despite having his deepest and most talented team in his 4-year tenure, Derek Mason and the Commodores will find it hard duplicating last year’s 6 wins. Currently, I only have the Commodores favored in 5 games and 4 of them are by 6 points or less. The schedule is very difficult as they host a possible Top 20 Kansas St team in non-conference action a long with two of the better teams in CUSA in Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. In SEC play, they pull Alabama from the West and Ole Miss will be seeking revenge from last year’s loss. The key will be a 3-game home stand in November as the Commodores will likely have to win all 3 to have a chance at a 2nd straight bowl berth.