Friday, Dec. 9th
FCS Playoffs
Sam Houston State at James Madison (-7, 85.5) (7 pm ET, espn2)
This is a quarterfinal game in the FCS Playoffs. James Madison opened as just a -3.5 point home favorite this morning and heavy money has already pushed this line up higher over several key numbers. My power ratings favor James Madison by 6 points, so the opening line was too low, but now it appears a bit inflated. Both teams are very strong offensively, but suspect on defense.
Sam Houston State (12-0 SU) has played a weak schedule this season with no games versus FBS opponents. The Bearkats were not impressive in their 41-36 home playoff win last week versus Chattanooga as the Mocs held a 29-20 first down edge and a 531-421 total yard advantage, including a dominating 236-48 rushing edge (5.1-1.8 ypr). Overall this season, Sam Houston State has outscored their opponents 53.1-26.8 points per game with a 7.5-5.3 yards per play edge.
James Madison (11-1) lost at North Carolina this season 28-56, but the Dukes have been explosive offensively against FCS opponents, including an impressive 55-22 home playoff win versus New Hampshire last week. JMU held a 567-268 total yard edge in that game (6.5-4.8 yards per play). Overall this season, James Madison has outscored their opponents 48.3-23.3 points per game with a 7.0-5.5 yards per play edge.
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